Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand
....
....
Chinese subsidy for MIC Model 3 is here!!!!!!!!!

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

 

[DrMazeppa]

Musk is going to lose this trial. While I fully understand why he did what he did, this is ok. So that we can move on to something more worrying, such as Germany's industrial production free-fall....Markets may salivate at the idea of more central banks' intervention, but sooner or later this info will get to the markets.

I am more and more confident Tesla will soon crush all shorts, but the bumps in the road may be bigger than ideal.
If only we had an armored pick-up, the bumps could be less annoying , but that's not going to be available for a couple of years....

 

[kengchang]

Musk is going to lose this trial. While I fully understand why he did what he did, this is ok. So that we can move on to something more worrying, such as Germany's industrial production free-fall....Markets may salivate at the idea of more central banks' intervention, but sooner or later this info will get to the markets.

I am more and more confident Tesla will soon crush all shorts, but the bumps in the road may be bigger than ideal.
If only we had an armored pick-up, the bumps could be less annoying , but that's not going to be available for a couple of years....

All it takes is one juror to disagree...

 

[Fact Checking]

Sorry, my point wasn't about the merits, it was about the difficulty Musk would face in prosecuting a libel charge against Unsworth. Even if Musk can prove your point about Unsworth's lawyer and buzzfeed, that doesn't help a case of libel against Unsworth. Unsworth isn't liable for the constant misreporting by the press.

What Unsworth did in public was 1) be rude to Musk (the submarine comment), 2) lie about Musk being kicked off the site. I really don't see how either of those rise to libel, much less when Musk is public figure.

Sorry, you didn't understand my points I believe:

• That the verbal hostilities were initiated by Unsworth weakens Unsworth's defamation case, both intuitively and according to the law. Just like in physical fights it matters, legally, who throws the first punch.
  
• That Unsworth's lawyer conspired with Buzzfeed to publish Elon's confidential emails weakened Unsworth's defamation case to the extent that he was forced to drop his claims over the strongest part of his case, the emails. Depending on exactly how Unsworth's lawyer conspired with Buzzfeed "unclean hands" and fraud come to mind - all of which are very much relevant. While Unsworth isn't responsible for what the media is reporting, he is very much responsible for what his lawyer is doing.
• (There's strong circumstantial evidence that Unsworth's 'unclean hands' approach went way beyond the Buzzfeed incident: he mocked the cave divers in private, was obsessed about payday and has a bad relationship with his own family. The jury probably won't see much of this, but we do.)

I never argued Elon should sue Unsworth for libel/defamation, why should he? But I am arguing that for the many reasons I outlined that Unsworth's case appears to be weak both according to common sense and according to the law.

This doesn't mean Unsworth cannot win: in the end it's probably the subjective impression these two parties made on the jury that matters most. This is why jury trials are risky, especially when you have the moral high ground - as I'm sure Elon's lawyers explained to him in detail.

 

[Fact Checking]

Musk is going to lose this trial. While I fully understand why he did what he did, this is ok. So that we can move on to something more worrying, such as Germany's industrial production free-fall....Markets may salivate at the idea of more central banks' intervention, but sooner or later this info will get to the markets.

I am more and more confident Tesla will soon crush all shorts, but the bumps in the road may be bigger than ideal.
If only we had an armored pick-up, the bumps could be less annoying , but that's not going to be available for a couple of years....

AFAIK U.S. civil verdicts must be unanimous in California:

Juries in the United States - Wikipedia

"Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 48 states that a federal civil jury must begin with at least 6 and no more than 12 members, and that the verdict must be unanimous unless the parties stipulate otherwise."​

I don't think Elon stipulated to the weakening of this requirement.

This is why plaintiffs suing famous people in the U.S. generally try to reach a settlement or drop their case, and try to reach a settlement by maximizing the embarrassment factor, maximizing the annoyance factor and maximizing the general litigation expense of the defendant.

Even if Elon is found not guilty he certainly had well over a million dollars of litigation costs - a good chunk of which money many defendants would rather pay to the plaintiff to avoid the embarrassment and avoid the risks of being found guilty.

But Elon didn't and he already paid the maximum price for the litigation - so what we have to wait for is the jury's verdict.

 

[AlexS]

Musk is going to lose this trial. While I fully understand why he did what he did, this is ok. So that we can move on to something more worrying, such as Germany's industrial production free-fall....Markets may salivate at the idea of more central banks' intervention, but sooner or later this info will get to the markets.

I am more and more confident Tesla will soon crush all shorts, but the bumps in the road may be bigger than ideal.
If only we had an armored pick-up, the bumps could be less annoying , but that's not going to be available for a couple of years....

soon is a relative term. is your target few weeks? six months? a year?

 

[DrMazeppa]

OK, I should explain myself better. I personally think Musk reacted as I would have, so I am not questioning this. I also think it is more likely he may lose the case. But as European, I did not think about the fact all jury has to agree, so I could certainly be wrong. But I honestly just want to move on. In a thread of investors, this seems like dust on a beach.
Whereas, an annoying recession/contraction/slowdown seems like a more relevant topic. Of course, hold long and this shall pass. I know, and if it happens I will try to take advantage of that. However, without this possible outcome, my view is one to two years to clear domination. As it should be. With a bump that is noticeable, we are going to go to another round of 'ah sell, TSLA is doomed, shorting pressure, bla bla' and remain stuck in the loop. A bit boring at this stage, don't you think? So, I would prefer not to have another opportunity to accumulate. But I am fine either way, just pointing out this seems like a more interesting discussion.

 

[Steve m]

Regardless of how unsympathetic Unsworth turns out to be, and regardless of the outcome of the lawsuit, can we all agree that Musk was doubly wrong in making the pedo tweet?

First, because none of us should publicly make unwarranted accusations, and

Second, as an extremely high profile CEO, Musk should be held to an even higher standard (than the rest of us) to not abuse the powerful megaphone he has at his control.

This has been an embarrassment for Musk, and by extension, Tesla.

Nothing more.

But also, nothing less.

No not doubly wrong

I see two boys engaged in a who can urinate the farthest match.

I see this as the challenger expecting me to pay for their contest.

I object.

 

[Fact Checking]

Some very interesting FSD developments are now reaching Early Access owners:

Autonomy Within Reach: Tesla Seeds 2019.40.2 –– Whole Mars Catalog

"A few select users running the old Nvidia hardware have started receiving the first seeds of Tesla software 2019.40.2. Tesla seems to be rapidly releasing minor features that will bring Autopilot to a feature complete state, and this update continues that trend with two new additions:

1. Adjacent Lane Speed Adjustments
2. Stop Sign Detection

Adjacent Lane Speed Adjustments
Autopilot sets its speed based on the max speed setting and how fast the car in front of it is traveling. If you’ve used the system much, you’ve probably encountered a situation where Autopilot is traveling much faster than the cars in a lane adjacent to you.​

Now, Autopilot is smart enough to notice that cars in the adjacent lane are traveling slower than you, and will reduce its own speed for greater safety. If you don’t want your car to slow down, you can tap the accelerator without disengaging Autopilot to have your car continue forward past traffic.

Like traffic cones, deep rain and the new faster lane changes, this is a great little modification that is much needed before Navigate on Autopilot can be activated on city streets.

Stop Sign Warning
Several months ago, Autopilot began to detect traffic lights and started alerting users if it thought they were about to run a red light. This feature was launched in anticipation of a future feature that will actually stop the car when detecting a yellow or red light.

Now, the system will detect and alert when you are about to run a stop sign too. This is an exciting step forward, and expected given that Autopilot is supposed to be able to stop for traffic lights and stop signs within 4 – 8 weeks."​

An interesting aspect is that these are still HW2 based features. I suspect that since the HW2+HW3 fleet is twice as large as the HW3 fleet alone, Tesla will try to maximize the number of FSD features they can support via HW2, to maximize the utilization of the training fleet.

 

[RobStark]

I’m not really trying to start some sort of a battle here but it’s very unusual to trade in a leased car due to the high cost. I believe most customers ride out the lease and then get a new car when the prior lease completes (at least that’s what I’ve always done).

This leads me to believe that the Leaf trade ins are from people who bought them secondhand and fell in love with EVs, not from leaseholders taking a huge hit trading in a lease early.

While CUVs are currently the hottest segment the sedan market has had the air completely sucked out of it...aside from one model.

BMW 3 Series, supposedly mostly leased, is second on the first list.

Going to contort another reason first list isn't full of near luxury sedans?

 

[RobStark]

No way Vern wins. He needed to prove he was harmed, but he didn't. He didn't even show that anyone actually believed he was a pedophile. I'm guessing TSLA rises $2 on news of Musk's acquittal.

Elon isn't being charged with a crime by the government.

 

[lklundin]

The first V3 Supercharger in Canada has gone live:

View attachment 484756

Many more to go, of course

They seem to be deploying these a lot faster recently - I think the cabinet production line at GF2 is finally ramping.
View attachment 484757

I am a bit surprised (i.e. mildly disappointed) that Tesla is still building 120 kW chargers (in the UK & Central-Eastern Europe).

I hope Tesla will build some 250 kW chargers in Germany, where driving speeds are significantly higher[*] (and where they can really drive home the point that they are technically superior).

[*] A higher charging power means that the minimal total traveling time is achieved by a higher driving speed.

 

[RobStark]

You are making an apples to oranges comparison again, it's not valid to extrapolate from Tesla's list of trade-ins to the rate of ICE luxury car displacement effect Tesla has in California:

• Luxury/premium segment sales in California are lease-heavy, with a higher than 50% leasing rate for some of the brands. Many people are leasing exactly to avoid having to "sell the old car". (One of the early signs of the collapse of ICE sales will be the increase in lease percentages, as buyers become increasingly worried about the residual value of luxury ICE vehicles.) A leased Benz, BMW or Audi is simply left at the Benz, BMW or Audi dealership when the lease expires and the owner buys or leases a Tesla. These cars won't show up on Tesla's trade-in list.
• Tesla's trade-in offers are not the best on the market and they cannot match a good private sale. For an old Prius or Civic few Tesla buyers will go through the hassle to maximize the sales price and consider Tesla taking their old car off their back a convenience service. It makes more sense to get a better used car value for higher value used ICE premium vehicles - and these won't show up in Tesla's trade-in list, even though Benz, BMW or Audi lost a customer to Tesla.

This means that the Tesla trade-in list is heavily biased towards less expensive cars, and I was surprised to see the BMW 3-Series on it at all.

Make no mistake about it: Tesla is hurting BMW and Benz dealership sales in California big time, even if you find the Prius as the top Tesla's list of convenience trade-ins.

I'd say the most reliable indicator of Tesla's effect in California are probably lease rates and residual values. Sales are an imperfect substitute: we just went through a 10 years bull market that benefited California disproportionately - the German luxury brands probably lost a lot of growth which they'd have gained, absent Tesla.

The BMW 3 Series being on the list disproves your point.

BMW drivers are generally more performance oriented vs MB and Audi drivers.

Tesla is known for performance not opulent interiors.

That is why it is not have the same conquest sales as those other premium near sedans.

Toyota and Honda sales are disproportionately in California, that is why they are so represented in Tesla trade-ins.

As well as Toyota/Honda traditional strengths in fuel efficiency more align with the values of Tesla buyers.

 

[skivi]

TSLA's up in pre Market any news?
Never mind, i just read papa fox's trading chart to understand why Adam Jonas has so much influence.

 

[Tslynk67]

 

[Todd Burch]

TSLA's up in pre Market any news?

Don’t let the world pass you by!

Start reading here:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[EinSV]

The BMW 3 Series being on the list disproves your point.

BMW drivers are generally more performance oriented vs MB and Audi drivers.

Tesla is known for performance not opulent interiors.

That is why it is not have the same conquest sales as those other premium near sedans.

Toyota and Honda sales are disproportionately in California, that is why they are so represented in Tesla trade-ins.

As well as Toyota/Honda traditional strengths in fuel efficiency more align with the values of Tesla buyers.

Tom Randall put together a very helpful chart that shows the impact of Model 3 sales on different brands.

In terms of market share, Model 3's impact was highest on luxury brands, including BMW, Audi, Acura and to a lesser extent Mercedes.

Tom also put together a list of cars traded-in for the Model 3 (below). The top 5 were similar to Tesla's own list, which corroborates Bloomberg's (and Tesla's) data.

As Tom explained, the reason the two lists are different is that even though cars like the Prius, Accord and Civic were traded in at higher rates, they had less impact on Toyota and Honda because Toyota and Honda sales volumes are much higher than the premium cars sold by BMW, Audi, Mercedes, etc. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[EV Promoter]

Tesla's Made-in-China Model 3 Qualifies for Local Government Incentives

Tesla China qualified for government incentives presumably for its locally-made Model 3 sedan. These incentives gives the Made-in-China Tesla Model 3 a competitive edge against other EVs in the local market.

According to an official government document, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information of Technology has put the locally-produced Model 3 on a list of vehicles that will receive subsidies for new energy cars. However, the level or amount of incentives Tesla’s sedan will be given was not disclosed.

 

[KarenRei]

No way Vern wins. He needed to prove he was harmed, but he didn't. He didn't even show that anyone actually believed he was a pedophile. I'm guessing TSLA rises $2 on news of Musk's acquittal.

I don't think it's that certain. But I believe the requirement is that the decision be unanimous, and I do think it'd be difficult to get unanimity on this one. If it was a simple majority, I think the combination of Unsworth's sob story (undermined somewhat by the fact that he had shown no signs of being bothered by it before the lawsuit), his "hero status", and the fact that Elon wasn't present for most of the case, would give him decent odds of convincing a majority of jurors to give him a payout.

I still don't think it's a shoo-in that Elon wins this, mind you. Sure, unanimity is a tough standard, and the fact that it's pretty demonstrable that nobody of significance believed he actually as a pedophile (as if prime ministers give awards to / pose for photos with people who are even slightly suspect in the public's mind?) makes it even harder. But I'm not going to write it off.

Regardless of how unsympathetic Unsworth turns out to be, and regardless of the outcome of the lawsuit, can we all agree that Musk was doubly wrong in making the pedo tweet?

First, because none of us should publicly make unwarranted accusations, and

Second, as an extremely high profile CEO, Musk should be held to an even higher standard (than the rest of us) to not abuse the powerful megaphone he has at his control.

Let he who has never said something that they later regret cast the first stone.

All it takes is one juror to disagree...

And if I'm not mistaken, four of the jurors own Teslas - one of whom owns two Teslas, and one owns an original Roadster. This is Los Angeles, after all.

Hey Elon, if you ever wanted a good reason to make sure that Tesla service in California is top notch...

Tesla Service (looking up the customer's address and finding that they're in the same district as Elon): "Oh, I'm so sorry to hear that you totaled your out-of-warranty Model 3 SR- while driving home drunk after a kegger! Of course we'll replace that under goodwill. Meanwhile, here's a Model X LR Plaid for a loaner - keep it as long as you want!"

I am a bit surprised (i.e. mildly disappointed) that Tesla is still building 120 kW chargers (in the UK & Central-Eastern Europe).

Should they have built nothing for over half a year?

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, pre-market up to $336, going to be an interesting day with futures +0.36% and MaxP $332.50

Pedo guy trial rolls the dice a bit too. If that's over before the bell can swing it up or down. Yes, yes, yes, nothing to do with Tesla, I know, but I still think it's influencing.

Another upgrade would be fun too, there's a few overdue, I think.