Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cirrus MS100D]

The flipping of the CT base / dual+tri is intriguing. Obviously it makes sense from a cash standpoint, but I was thinking they weren’t quite close enough with the development of the tri-motor variant to push it up to 2021. Of course I assume they’re going to incorporate everything they’re learning about the Model S plaid tri-motor they’ve been running around the track, but still, impressive! Also seems like the battery technology is closer to ready too.

All seemingly good signs from what would otherwise be considered a very insignificant signal.

 

[SpaceCash]

I was torn. I really want to be the cool kid with the new toy first, but also didn't mind an extra year to get the money together. I guess I need to plan on 2 years then.

Same situation here. If the stock goes in the right direction I'll be more than covered though.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Mr market wasn't expecting a series of good news to have to deal with today, both Tesla specific and Macro related. They had to use quite a bit of ammo there to halt that breakout.

 

[humbaba]

Same situation here. If the stock goes in the right direction I'll be more than covered though.

You mean you are willing to sell $TSLA!!?!?!??!!? HERESY!!!!!!

 

[Nocturnal]

Trying to figure out what S&P inclusion would do for the stock. Seems like a 5% SP increase is common. The shorts really don't know when to leave the table.

You mean you are willing to sell $TSLA!!?!?!??!!? HERESY!!!!!!

I won't see any TSLA I think but the gains I expect will make me feel comfortable taking a low interest loan on something that I don't really need.

 

[dc_h]

The mostly irrelevant trial continues to get most of the public attention, but the signs of continuing improvements in execution and timing are growing daily. FSD feature complete appears to be close to reality, although a legal L5 product is still a year or more down the road. Shanghai appears to be ramping up on a very controlled basis with one shift ramping towards 100-150 cars a day. The Cybertruck schedule has moved up 6 months or more for 2021 early production of dual motor vehicles. Tesla also quietly appears to be prepping production of the Model Y in Q1. These developments point to recognizing more cash flow as profit, continuing to double manufacturing capacity over the prior 18 months (same pattern since 2012), having a platform coming online in 2021 to continue that 18 month growth cycle at least one more time. We don't even have solid data or timelines for the Semi, Roadster, Solar or battery deliveries.
External factors now seem to be the biggest risk for Tesla, including trade wars with Europe in 2020, global destabilization, potential recession and appearance of auto recession caused by Tesla. No doubt Osborne will be getting busy in Europe in 2020 as GF4 starts to take shape and the Y starts ramping up in the US.

FSD: IStop sign recognition and awareness of traffic behavior in neighboring lanes. I'm not confused about the potential for this to be more than a year away, but the basic features required for FSD seem nearly complete.
https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/06/tesla-update-autopilot-adjust-speed-stop-sign-warning/

Shanghai plant moving to 1000 cars per week by end of year.
Tesla China on Twitter

Cybertruck production moved to 2021:
https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/06/tesla-cybertruck-production-timeline-update-orders/

Model Y Q1 production does not mean deliveries in Q1 or volume production. It does seem they are working on production control more carefully and aren't desperate for cash flow, so can be much more methodical then they were for the Model 3. With production processes also much more ironed out, ramp should be smoother and faster.

Recession risks: Legacy auto has cut 89,000 jobs in the last month or so. They are likely to cut at least as many jobs in 2020. Several will need to cut production shifts or have temporary or permanent halts to production. The top ten 2018 unsold inventory cars (yes we're entering 2020) are Jeep Wrangler, Macan, Mitsubishi Ecliple, Dodge Durango, Chrysler Pacifica, Jeep Compass, Kia Optima. GM and Ford will both likely cancel all ICE sedans by the end of 2020, except for Cadillac.

 

[Sancho]

Mr market wasn't expecting a series of good news to have to deal with today, both Tesla specific and Macro related. They had to use quite a bit of ammo there to halt that breakout.

I’d be happy with a close today in the high 330s. That would make it easier to break through 340 early next week and then the anticipation of good delivery numbers can start pushing the SP up.

The bears really want a 335 or lower close today to better defend 340 next week.

 

[Chocochip]

The flipping of the CT base / dual+tri is intriguing. Obviously it makes sense from a cash standpoint, but I was thinking they weren’t quite close enough with the development of the tri-motor variant to push it up to 2021. Of course I assume they’re going to incorporate everything they’re learning about the Model S plaid tri-motor they’ve been running around the track, but still, impressive! Also seems like the battery technology is closer to ready too.

All seemingly good signs from what would otherwise be considered a very insignificant signal.

Exactly! It seemed obvious when Tesla announced the tri-motor version will arrive one year later that they don't yet have the technology down for that yet, it's still in a developmental stage, whereas the single and dual motor variants are just ports from their existing lines.

And then Elon started tweeting reservation numbers, and probably soon after he made the executive decision -- much like in early April 2016 -- to aggressively speed up the development cycle of a freshly-unveiled product that attracted ridiculous levels of interest. Which caused several people in the Tesla engineering team to joyously exclaim, much like back in April 2016: "Ahhh, F*CK ME!!!"

 

[lklundin]

BMW recalling 1.4M 3 series vehicles due to a new issue with air bags.....bad timing with Tesla's Model 3 eating their lunch.

Takata recalls 1.4 million BMW 3-Series cars over air bag defect

Who makes the airbags in the Tesla Model 3?

 

[Tim S]

From the Detroit Free Press...
Ford recalls 262,000 heavy-duty pickups for tailgate problem

 

[humbaba]

Who makes the airbags in the Tesla Model 3?

Those cars sound like they are hold overs from an old recall -- "from the 1999 to 2001 model years."

Tesla was proactive about the Takata issues. Other manufacturers have been less so.

edited to clarify: yep, still Takata, but this is apparently from degradation of old design. Pre-dates all Tesla vehicles. No impact. The one that did impact Tesla has already been dealt with.

 

[Unpilot]

FYI Max pain is 332.5

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[lklundin]

.

I agree with the "mildly disappointed" part, but I wonder whether the cost of producing and installing (and possibly servicing) the v3 250kW SCs is significantly higher than the v2, 120kW ones. And if that is the case, whether Tesla prefers to install v3 SCs in areas of high traffic or of high-speed travel (high speed limit highways, Autobahn, etc.).

It may also be that they have a big stockpile of v2 SCs already produced, or it's simply faster to make these compared to the v3s, in which case v2 and v3 will coexist for the foreseeable future.

To mods: if you feel this is really off-topic or has the potential to hijack the thread with endless discussion on Supercharger technology (which I don't encourage in any way), feel free to delete or move this post to a more appropriate thread.

This summer Tesla started upgrading the original Superchargers to up to 150kW so it seems somewhat strange to me that they are not able to at least make new installations (even new permits) also with those powers. Even if the power to e.g. 4 pairs of stalls is limited to 480 kW it would still be better for everyone if each pair could deliver up to 150 kW (since people would be on their way faster, reducing risk of congestion).

 

[green48]

Tesla just passed BYD to become the world's largest EV producer! Great momentum as they start producing in China. Tesla sales are growing at 60%/year, BYD's EV sales at only 37.5%/year.

 

[humbaba]

FYI Max pain is 332.5

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

On the other hand today is an up day: NASDAQ currently +0.96% or so.

Of course, $TSLA sometimes (often) goes the opposite direction, but it is still a tailwind for $TSLA

 

[humbaba]

From the Detroit Free Press...
Ford recalls 262,000 heavy-duty pickups for tailgate problem

from that article, "Owners will be notified by male during the week of Jan. 20."

So is that just a service for female owners? Is it a full monty? [is it Ford's new marketing push?]

(not your mistake, just found it funny)

 

[MP3Mike]

The Cybertruck schedule has moved up 6 months or more for 2021 early production of dual motor vehicles.

Actually the timing for the dual motor Cybertruck hasn't changed. What changed was the RWD was delayed 1 year, and the tri-motor was brought forward one year.

Exactly! It seemed obvious when Tesla announced the tri-motor version will arrive one year later that they don't yet have the technology down for that yet, it's still in a developmental stage, whereas the single and dual motor variants are just ports from their existing lines.

I'm sure that they will be using the same tri-motor version as the Model S&X Plaid, which Elon has said will be shipping in less than a year. So I don't think the problem is that they don't have the technology down for that yet. I suspect it was more of an issue of they thought the RWD would be widely popular so they put it before the tri, and the reservations showed them that they were wrong so they adjusted.

 

[dc_h]

I’d be happy with a close today in the high 330s. That would make it easier to break through 340 early next week and then the anticipation of good delivery numbers can start pushing the SP up.

The bears really want a 335 or lower close today to better defend 340 next week.

November delivery numbers could be a buying opportunity. Good chance numbers are low as so much early quarter production was overseas. December numbers and January 3rd should be exciting.

 

[Unpilot]

On the other hand today is an up day: NASDAQ currently +0.96% or so.

Of course, $TSLA sometimes (often) goes the opposite direction, but it is still a tailwind for $TSLA

With the volume we have so far I think it will be tough for the MM to push it down.
Paging @Papafox

 

[Pezpunk]

Who makes the airbags in the Tesla Model 3?

the cars affected by this specific recall are from before Tesla existed.