The mostly irrelevant trial continues to get most of the public attention, but the signs of continuing improvements in execution and timing are growing daily. FSD feature complete appears to be close to reality, although a legal L5 product is still a year or more down the road. Shanghai appears to be ramping up on a very controlled basis with one shift ramping towards 100-150 cars a day. The Cybertruck schedule has moved up 6 months or more for 2021 early production of dual motor vehicles. Tesla also quietly appears to be prepping production of the Model Y in Q1. These developments point to recognizing more cash flow as profit, continuing to double manufacturing capacity over the prior 18 months (same pattern since 2012), having a platform coming online in 2021 to continue that 18 month growth cycle at least one more time. We don't even have solid data or timelines for the Semi, Roadster, Solar or battery deliveries.
External factors now seem to be the biggest risk for Tesla, including trade wars with Europe in 2020, global destabilization, potential recession and appearance of auto recession caused by Tesla. No doubt Osborne will be getting busy in Europe in 2020 as GF4 starts to take shape and the Y starts ramping up in the US.
FSD: IStop sign recognition and awareness of traffic behavior in neighboring lanes. I'm not confused about the potential for this to be more than a year away, but the basic features required for FSD seem nearly complete.
https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/06/tesla-update-autopilot-adjust-speed-stop-sign-warning/
Shanghai plant moving to 1000 cars per week by end of year.
Tesla China on Twitter
Cybertruck production moved to 2021:
https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/06/tesla-cybertruck-production-timeline-update-orders/
Model Y Q1 production does not mean deliveries in Q1 or volume production. It does seem they are working on production control more carefully and aren't desperate for cash flow, so can be much more methodical then they were for the Model 3. With production processes also much more ironed out, ramp should be smoother and faster.
Recession risks: Legacy auto has cut 89,000 jobs in the last month or so. They are likely to cut at least as many jobs in 2020. Several will need to cut production shifts or have temporary or permanent halts to production. The top ten 2018 unsold inventory cars (yes we're entering 2020) are Jeep Wrangler, Macan, Mitsubishi Ecliple, Dodge Durango, Chrysler Pacifica, Jeep Compass, Kia Optima. GM and Ford will both likely cancel all ICE sedans by the end of 2020, except for Cadillac.