What is your perspective on GF-3 deliveries impact on Q-1?
Do you expect TE to be consequential in GAAP terms for Q-1?
Do you expect growth in the Canadian Prairies and north central US due to the completion of coast-to-coast Supercharger access and improved Service access?
If Model Y production begins in Q-1 will that have a direct effect in market terms?
From your discussions and those of others, it might seem logical that the loss of incentives in the US and Netherlands might be enough to reduce Q-1 despite continued growth from UK (normally quite strong for auto sales in Q-1 for automakers), Korea and newer eastern European markets.
Lastly, you have made limited discussion of the distribution system improvements.
None of these issues fits neatly in technical analysis, but they all might be materially influential in reducing the market influence of short sellers. Further, if TE were to become materially additive it could quite easily turn GAAP sufficiently to advance index inclusion.
While I have opinions, I have more confidence in yours than I do in mine, at least in terms of market reactions. In accounting terms I am much more comfortable and there I expect the net effect of all those factors is highly likely to produce GAAP positive Q-1, probably very small, but positive.
I moved my reply here from the Daily Charts thread because I hope some of you with more expertise is specific areas than me will join the discussion.
* GF-3 deliveries impact on Q-1
We need some of our spreadsheet wizards who know the accounting rules to step in and give some perspective on this issue. As a rough idea, though, I'd say that with labor costs very low in China and list price of Model 3s still high in the country, Tesla could produce positive margins, even in Q1. The combination of higher delivery numbers in China next quarter and at least a small contribution towards profits would be viewed very favorably by the market.
* Growth in Canadian Prairies and north central US due to completion of coast-to-coast Supercharger access and improved Service access
Lots of possibilities here... The Rocky Mountain and east of the Rockies states showed lots of interest in CyberTruck, and since that vehicle is still a couple years from production some of that interest could spill over to Model Y (and Model 3 too). More service centers definitely results in more sales in areas where a long drive to service is cut way down. My guess is that Supercharging the Trans-Canada Highway will have a lesser impact on sales because the distances between population centers are so great in central and western Canada and the highway is only 2 lanes in some areas. It's so much easier to fly from Toronto to Vancouver than to drive.
* Model Y introduction in Q1
I continue to believe that we won't hear about earlier beginning of Model Y production until either the cars are rolling off the assembly line or Elon answers the question in the 4Q19 ER conference call. Model Y can cannibalize some Model 3 sales and Tesla doesn't want buyers thinking about Model Y until they're ready to deliver. That said, the market will respond favorably to the likely highest-selling Tesla becoming available earlier than expected. Naturally, TSLAQ will frame the situation as Tesla speeding up Model Y production beginning because there was a demand problem beginning for Model 3.
* Small GAAP profit in Q-1
I think you nailed the pivot point. TSLAQ is counting on a Q-1 dip. If Q-1 produces a small profit, Tesla is in the catbird seat for S&P500 inclusion. Once the market figures out that S&P500 inclusion is likely, there will be no holding the stock price back. This is the primary reason why I have gone all in with the money I am willing to invest in TSLA, rather than holding any back for a possible dip. I think the only reason TSLA didn't climb higher this past week was because of poor macros on Monday and Tuesday and significant manipulations the rest of the week to create the illusion that the market was worried about the Unsworth trial. Concerns about Tesla getting cleared for actual deliveries of MIC M3s and producing seriously were put to bed this past week. The slow but steady increase in weekly output at GF-3 has finally begun. In comparing TSLA downside potential to upside right now, the upside looks so much greater.
