Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Wonder how many he purchased, 18th January could be a dark day for Marky boy.

He may no longer be in them. The last that I heard he stated that he was "short the stock and selling calls". Being short the stock implies that the calls aren't covered, and since he said calls (not call spreads), they were probably outright uncovered.

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA is finally catching up to Tesla. I get it, we have been waiting two years for this moment. Congratulations TSLA longs. However, lets show some restraint. Enough with the gloating. Stop with the posts advising of a share price increase of every quarter dollar. We weren't doing this at $30, so why start now at $400? It is a poor reflection on TMC members. Let's not stoop to the low level zealots at TSLAQ.

Remember, each and every day there are many new people discovering Tesla and viewing this TMC thread for the first time. Let's ensure this thread is wisely used (post only if you some something relevant to share). This thread is getting near useless unless you have several hours a day to separate the wheat from the chaff. If you are a new TMC member, vocal or lurker, welcome to the best club in town.

 

[22522]

Saw this today. Seems different than at the conference call. The deal is not good enough to generate revenue from here. Would need to be 3.5s...

 

[WarpedOne]

>> TSLA is finally catching up to Tesla.

This ain't no catching up, it is merely turning and starting in the right direction.
What is the 'real' valuesis anybody's guess.
Fur sure it aint mere 400 ...

 

[Ellec]

He may no longer be in them. The last that I heard he stated that he was "short the stock and selling calls". Being short the stock implies that the calls aren't covered, and since he said calls (not call spreads), they were probably outright uncovered.

Ouch, I forsee a video for his client akin to this....

 

[Ellec]

View attachment 490012

Saw this today. Seems different than at the conference call. The deal is not good enough to generate revenue from here. Would need to be 3.5s...

I wouldn't pay 2k for that, but others might. Could generate a few tens of million onto the bottom line though.
Range extending would be a good one for this.

 

[ZachF]

Horace Dediu on Twitter

"China electric vehicle market down 43.7% in November following 45% drop in October. Subsidies withdrawal causing kink in adoption curve."

Found this tweet while browsing through Spiegel's feed. These numbers seem extreme, but if there's any truth to them, couldn't that also be caused by the impending MiC M3 launch and customers placing an order for that instead of buying other EVs?

The problem with the Chinese EV numbers is it includes a whole bunch of cars that are basically road legal golf carts built to harvest the subsidies.

I imagine if you could separate out full-range 'real' EVs the numbers would tell a different story.

 

[22522]

View attachment 490012

Saw this today. Seems different than at the conference call. The deal is not good enough to generate revenue from here. Would need to be 3.5s...

It took me a while to figure out the problem with this.

If software upgrades are no longer free, it keeps money on the sidelines.

Some buyers will wait for improvements before they buy.

So this behavior looks good to the short sighted.

Overall, it postpones demand and creates and incentive to wait for improvements before buying. It hurts growth and encourages people to shop around. It turns a no brainer decision into a decision. (first principle: processes slow down each time you add a decision point)

Wall Street will not likely see it this way. But Wall Street does not think in first principles.

 

[engle]

It took me a while to figure out the problem with this.

<sarcasm on>
I still have my 35 lbs. 1982 Compaq "Portable" PC with two 640K floppy drives and 64K RAM (true!). I'm still waiting for improvements before buying a replacement since PC's get more powerful each year. Lotus 1-2-3 and Wordstar run great on it!
<sarcasm off>

If software upgrades are no longer free, it keeps money on the sidelines.

Some buyers will wait for improvements before they buy.

So this behavior looks good to the short sighted.

Overall, it postpones demand and creates and incentive to wait for improvements before buying. It hurts growth and encourages people to shop around. It turns a no brainer decision into a decision. (first principle: processes slow down each time you add a decision point)

Wall Street will not likely see it this way. But Wall Street does not think in first principles.

 

[lklundin]

SP broke $500 Canadian barrier today

In the EU TSLA breached 350€ yesterday.

 

[lascavarian]

Overall, it postpones demand and creates and incentive to wait for improvements before buying. It hurts growth and encourages people to shop around. It turns a no brainer decision into a decision. (first principle: processes slow down each time you add a decision point)

Well you could look at it as an excuse to postpone demand but....

Tesla is introducing the new Model Y soon and they need an incentive to keep Model 3 popular. This performance increase allows buyers of Model 3 AWD vehicles to see a strong value in that purchase decision. Smart.

 

[Sancho]

Agreed. It is SOP for Tesla to pull-in employees from throughout the company to help with the end of Q delivery madness.

Silicon Valley Tesla Owners Club has been officially asked to supply two volunteers starting this past weekend through 12/31/2019 during all operating hours to be onsite at the Fremont Delivery Center as a resource to help new owners learn the basics of how to use their new cars. This frees-up TSLA employees to book the next sale. I signed-up for 12/31/2019 at 5-7 pm since my wife and I avoid the NYE crowds and watch the festivities on TV.

Will report the mad rush afterward!

Is there another public company anywhere in the world that regularly gets organized volunteer help from its customer base on operational functions?

 

[defc0n]

I wouldn't pay 2k for that, but others might. Could generate a few tens of million onto the bottom line though.
Range extending would be a good one for this.

0.5s is a lot more than what it sounds like. But yes I would think about the other things I could spend $2000 on.

If you look at it from the perspective of buying a sports car, that gain in speed is certainly worth $2k. If you’ve already bought the car and it’s currently in your hands though...

 

[mongo]

OT

Saw this today. Seems different than at the conference call. The deal is not good enough to generate revenue from here. Would need to be 3.5s...

The acceleration boost option is not the 5% bump from the conference call.

 

[jbcarioca]

Well, if you believe ARK Cathie Wood, pretty much anywhere below $4,000/share
(I do)
Remember
AAPL isn’t $279/share, it’s actually $15,655/share for the long term folks

I considered myself stupid when I bought a Newton and bought AAPL on my birthday in 1993. Both were a gift from my spouse, who had been with me more than a decade earlier when I had used Apple II with a thing called VisiCalc to run a bank I had launched this bank:
بنك اليمن الدولي - بنك اليمن الدولي
(amazingly it still exists! It still is an innovator in that benighted country. Still the Maria Theresa Tolar is accepted as legal tender in rebel areas and government areas alike. I still have some of them)
This is wildly OT unless you accept my investment thesis which is to choose only things you believe in and can justify based on their fundamental capacity to succeed. Given the date my spouse led me to invest in AAPL proves I clearly can sometimes buy low when times seem bleak.

TSLA has much in common with AAPL, including serious innovation, somewhat warped personalities and the interesting ability to generate self-inflicted wounds. Just as with AAPL, I strongly think TSLA has the kind of future ARK, among others, envisions.

I plan to keep TSLA until I am old(er) and decrepit. Even so ATH is gratifying!

 

[Fact Checking]

He may no longer be in them. The last that I heard he stated that he was "short the stock and selling calls". Being short the stock implies that the calls aren't covered, and since he said calls (not call spreads), they were probably outright uncovered.

Oh, please make it so that Spiegel is still holding short naked call option contracts today. What a way to double down on his short position.

 

[engle]

Is there another public company anywhere in the world that regularly gets organized volunteer help from its customer base on operational functions?

None that I am aware of operationally. However, many huge SV tech companies make millions from users who willingly donate their time providing reviews of products and services (e.g. crowdsourcing) for zero compensation. Amazon, Yelp, Tripadvisor, etc. you know who you are! These volunteers are often bestowed with little "badges" online to feed their egos and get them to continue this.

Here are TSLA's official delivery support guidelines in case any of you help out at a delivery center either under the auspices of an owner club or under an ad hoc basis with the support of a delivery manager:

TSLA is helping with climate change. I want ALL ICE vehicles off the roads ASAP. I want ALL the pollution emissions stopped. Too many die from cancers caused by pollution. I want future generations to ask their parents, "Mom/Dad, what is pollution?"

 

[Singuy]

0.5s is a lot more than what it sounds like. But yes I would think about the other things I could spend $2000 on.

If you look at it from the perspective of buying a sports car, that gain in speed is certainly worth $2k. If you’ve already bought the car and it’s currently in your hands though...

Tough crowd.

BMW 340i (2020) has 385 HP, 0-60 in 4.2 sec
BMW M3 (2019) has 425 HP, 0-60 in 4 sec

So for a 0.5 sec delta in the 4s down to the 3s will require at least 100hp, which in the ICE world is an entire class jump of cars.

 

[Chocochip]

Where's the shower?

Coming soon via OTA upgrade, $2000 to unlock.

 

[Unpilot]

Good Morning fellow addict's.
Today will be a good day to feed our addiction.

Do not try and go cold turkey today...you will fail

An advice