Where is the price going next? I don't know, but here's a baseless conjecture.
Tesla tends to trade in a wide interval for several years before breaking into the next interval.
First, $20 to $36.
Second, $190 to $270
Third, $270 to $370
Fourth, $370 to ???
There was a transition from first interval to second. Likewise from the third to fourth, we've had a dal segno to $180 and back. Now we appear to be headed into the fourth interval.
So let's suppose that a certain interval will prevail over the next several years. What would be that range. Here's my totally baseless guess.
Fourth, $370 to $520.
I think there is a tremendous amount of attention on the $420, but that is too close to $370 to hold as an upper limit. We may get hung up at $420 for a while, but the real hype train needs much more range to roam. $470 could be a upper limit, but on a relative scale the range from $370 to $470 is really not that compelling. Musk's award is linked to a market cap of $100B or about $554/sh. So that will be a major battle with shorts. So I think $570 is too high for the fourth interval. So spitting the difference $520 seems about right and has some symbolic resonance with $420.
So there you go. Look for Tesla to be range bound between $370 and $520 for several years. The exciting part is that we could see the high $520 marked very quickly. Perhaps within 6 months.
Enjoy the ride!
One thing I've learned repeatedly is patterns repeat, but only until they don't. It's not wise to expect a stock's share price to behave in a predictable way just because it has established three somewhat well-defined trading ranges previously.
Tesla is morphing into a different company in many distinct ways right before our eyes and will likely have a different share price pattern than it did under it's previous self:
1) Tesla is moving out of the establishment phase where they have been dependent upon regular infusions of cash to develop their lower volume vehicles and get them into production and changing into a self-sustaining company, able to stand on their own, where the only reason they might raise more capital is to be able to expand more rapidly than their profits would otherwise allow.
2) They are moving from a low volume niche manufacturer into a high volume, mainstream manufacturer. In 2020 they will have two high volume models (3 and Y) and Plaid versions of S (and X?) and over the next two years will be rolling out the Tesla semi, the Cybertruck and the Roadster. This is a departure from one new low volume car every 2 years.
3) While they have built out their international operations over several years, it is only now that they are truly becoming a well-distributed manufacturer with production facilities worldwide and a nice spread of sales that are not heavily over-weighted to one market.
4) They have announced 2020 as the year they will roll-out their solar roof in a big way. This should mean significant revenues from a source other than autos.
5) It sure looks like they are making the transition to making their own batteries.
As JustMe pointed out, Tesla is now growing exponentially. This is going to affect the way the stock trades. TSLA could blow right through that theoretical trading range of $370-$520 that you expect based on past behavior. Without a better reason than "history repeats itself", I would expect it to do something different. Wildly different. This is one of the most, if not the most, dynamic companies on planet earth! I expect something better than for it to trade in a $150 range for "several years". $520 is only 28% above the current price, a price that I consider somewhat undervalued right now! If I thought we would be rangebound "for the next several years" I wouldn't even be in this stock.
Please tell us you're just pulling our legs. That you really don't believe that.
