She said she's spending time with family, or something equally ridiculous. Pft.
TMC is my 2nd family.
Also, today is my birthday.
Send presents.
Or TSLA shares.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
She said she's spending time with family, or something equally ridiculous. Pft.
TMC is my 2nd family.
Also, today is my birthday.
Send presents.
Or TSLA shares.
Alphacrux
Member
In case anyone missed it, Elon tweeted an hour ago: “Stock Art” with a picture of the stock graph at $420.69.
About 1/3rd of it pays back the original construction loan that comes due in a couple of months... that $TSLAQ have been harping about. The rest of it is to expand production, which I take to mean more building and more robots and more parts.
Happy Birthday! From TSLA and the NASDAQ! And your 2nd family my friend!
And Merry Christmas and/or happy holidays!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Picked this out to reply to - I've got a similar feeling to the run we went on back in 2013. There was a point in time where after trading in the 20's and 30's for an extended period, there was a surprise profitable quarter, and "suddenly" (without warning), the stock price 'disconnected' (my term) from it's previous trading history, and went off searching for a new trading band.
Or as I like to think of it, the market collectively realized that 20's or 30's wasn't the right valuation, but the market hadn't collectively figured out what the correct valuation was. Over the next 3 to 6 months or so, the stock went from that prior trading range to 180, traded back down to 130, and established that 130 - 180 range as the new share price range.
Maybe that's going to happen now, and maybe it'll even happen at the same scale. Maybe not. I don't know what the new collective market decision will be on the trading range, or even if this is just a brief foray out of the previous trading range, before going back to the 280-380 trading range. (Partly because that's a short range trading question, and I suck at short range trading predictions).
But I'm strongly of the belief that 300's or now 400's isn't the right valuation today. So my mental model, clearly shaped by past experience, is that the next trading range might be more like 1300-1800. And it'll take us a decent chunk of 2020 to get there.
The related thought was the many comments by people who said they were long term investors, but couldn't resist taking their 2x gains off the table at $60, planning to buy back when the stock traded back to $40. Or taking 3x gains at $90, planning to buy back in at $60. To me, those are short term trading decisions and can be exactly the right decision for short term traders (my definition - any trading decision that is influenced by the current or next quarterly results is short term; long term is affected by company strategic plans).
I'm with @avoigt - I was as indifferent to the $1xx share price as I am to the $4xx share price (outside of the fact I didn't buy more) - both are ridiculously underpriced in my mind; I don't know when the collective market will join me in my valuation; and because I suck at short term trading, I expect that exiting and reentering will also be when the share price comes untethered from the history and I miss some or all of the big move up.
Worth noting - while the $4xx share price doesn't matter any more to me than the $1xx share price, it IS more fun
They are wrong. People have posted on this forum that Tesla has notified them their car will be built December 25 or 26 for delivery this year.
Here are my thoughts on where Tesla stands currently.
1) Q4 deliveries are only 2 weeks away, and earnings call is 6 weeks away. I'm thinking we will get a modest profit and record deliveries. SP will show strength in anticipation of a good quarter... we will go beyond 420 in the lead up to numbers and earnings.
2) On the back of good numbers and the current momentum, the stock price will rally in the range of 450-500. SP tends to overreact to quarterly results.
3) Short interest will drop on the back of another profitable quarter, the associated SP rise and margin calls.
4) 2020 is going to be an amazing year where several aspects of Tesla's business start contributing to profits - MIC 3, solar roof, FSD - potentially driving up the stock price to 500-600 or more by the end of the year. All these three things are something that most analysts have not priced into their estimates.
5) If we get a non-profitable Q4 I think there will be pullback to the 350 range, but I consider this unlikely. If this happens I think the back and forth profit/loss will cast a question mark in analysts minds, even if Q1 is profitable, dragging the share price down for the next 6-9 months... AKA buying opportunity.
6) I don't actually care about all this short term movements, because I plan on leaving my money in TSLA for 5-10 years at which point FSD will be totally realised, as will the EV revolution, but it is interesting anyway to be so right about this investment, in both the short term and long term.
7) 3 of my friends have invested in TSLA and made money - feels good.
8) I keep wanting to pick up more TSLA but I already have 30% (after this rally) of my net worth in TSLA, and I don't anticipate 2020 to have many large dips like 2019 did.
9) If there is a global recession then TSLA could lose 75% of its value in macro movements like many stocks did in 2008. If this happens I will pick up more on the rebound, and wait out the dip, which in the case of 2008 only lasted 2-3 years for most stocks.
1) Q4 deliveries are only 2 weeks away, and earnings call is 6 weeks away. I'm thinking we will get a modest profit and record deliveries. SP will show strength in anticipation of a good quarter... we will go beyond 420 in the lead up to numbers and earnings.
2) On the back of good numbers and the current momentum, the stock price will rally in the range of 450-500. SP tends to overreact to quarterly results.
3) Short interest will drop on the back of another profitable quarter, the associated SP rise and margin calls.
4) 2020 is going to be an amazing year where several aspects of Tesla's business start contributing to profits - MIC 3, solar roof, FSD - potentially driving up the stock price to 500-600 or more by the end of the year. All these three things are something that most analysts have not priced into their estimates.
5) If we get a non-profitable Q4 I think there will be pullback to the 350 range, but I consider this unlikely. If this happens I think the back and forth profit/loss will cast a question mark in analysts minds, even if Q1 is profitable, dragging the share price down for the next 6-9 months... AKA buying opportunity.
6) I don't actually care about all this short term movements, because I plan on leaving my money in TSLA for 5-10 years at which point FSD will be totally realised, as will the EV revolution, but it is interesting anyway to be so right about this investment, in both the short term and long term.
7) 3 of my friends have invested in TSLA and made money - feels good.
8) I keep wanting to pick up more TSLA but I already have 30% (after this rally) of my net worth in TSLA, and I don't anticipate 2020 to have many large dips like 2019 did.
9) If there is a global recession then TSLA could lose 75% of its value in macro movements like many stocks did in 2008. If this happens I will pick up more on the rebound, and wait out the dip, which in the case of 2008 only lasted 2-3 years for most stocks.
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was posted on here earlier today as well.
I‘m thinking that 50% “cut” didn’t involve him actually voluntarily closing any positions, but rather all his existing short positions plummeting in value. In fact he probably had to pony up MORE money simply to get up to a “reduced” 10% fund weighting.
2virgule5
Member
See you on the Garden State Parkway pal. I'll be passing you with ease in my M3P (because it's Red, and also you're not going to go very far in this weather with summer tires
).
3Victoria
Active Member
Tesla bought a company that specializes in compressing NNs, ie getting similar function with smaller NNs. This would appear to be a way to to take hw3 NN and squeeze it into a hw2.x. EM did tweet that they had some more work to do re 2.x.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
This happened about 15 miles from me. I noticed that too and looked closer—it is not a Tesla. No Teslas involved.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Fun Fact: 3,242,157 shares of TSLA traded during today's main session at or above $420 per share with a total value of $1.365B USD.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Shortzes.*
Cheers!
*obligatory M/J jibe. Meanwhle ACB hit a 2yr low
Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Shortzes.*
Cheers!
*obligatory M/J jibe. Meanwhle ACB hit a 2yr low
Volume was really high again today. A good sign!
Happy birthday dude. Many more.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I know this is gonna come as a surprise to most of you......TSLA on $420 Day is nowhere to be found on the CNBC front page. Shocking!
sundaymorning
Active Member
I wonder what kind of sales practices that would have BMW investigated?
BMW says being investigated by U.S. SEC
Maybe they were to optimistic in their emissions, MPG?
Investigation secured.
BMW says being investigated by U.S. SEC
Maybe they were to optimistic in their emissions, MPG?
Investigation secured.
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