Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Paid for by shorts, I assume Nice!

Technically paid for mostly by the P85D that I sold, but the shorts did pay for a Roadster!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Hey guys, enjoying a day of vacation in London and can't keep track of the stock price.

Anything interesting happen?

 

[Dutchie]

Three weeks ago TSLA was just a small part of my portfolio. Without trading anything it has become the dominant holding in my portfolio. Could have bought more, was just too scared to do so. Don't regret it though, as a win is a win

 

[dmckinstry]

OT, but not for me.
Got the VIN for my new Model X. Delivery date was set at 12-26, but delayed by me until 12-28, as it took 3 days for the sale of 308 shares on last Wed. to finalize. Called TIAA to initiate the withdrawal of the cash and was going to take three days(not counting Christmas) to move it to the retirement money market from which it can be withdrawn. So, the earliest I can start the transfer to my checking account is 8 am ET on Friday. I don't know how long that will take.

 

[Kuhz]

OT, but not for me.
Got the VIN for my new Model X. Delivery date was set at 12-26, but delayed by me until 12-28, as it took 3 days for the sale of 308 shares on last Wed. to finalize. Called TIAA to initiate the withdrawal of the cash and was going to take three days(not counting Christmas) to move it to the retirement money market from which it can be withdrawn. So, the earliest I can start the transfer to my checking account is 8 am ET on Friday. I don't know how long that will take.

Why did it take 3 days to finalize?

 

[Steve m]

Your statements are true but irrelevant to @verygreen's point. Until Tesla stops labeling it beta, it's by definition not complete in Tesla's own opinion.

Are you really claiming all Tesla has to do to make it complete is to remove the word beta?

I stand by my rule. Software may be released but it is never complete as in nothing more will be done to it unless it has been abandoned.

As a fellow engineering student stated "it doesn't have to be perfect just done enough."

 

[Mike Smith]

Why did it take 3 days to finalize?

Banks/brokerages like to keep your money for a few days so they can invest it, essentially stealing interest from you and delaying when you get access to your money.

 

[humbaba]

All of the excitement today surrounding $420 (and $420.42 and $420.69) and I missed the most important piece of numerological information today: the closing price. It was hotly contested between the NSFW marijuana toking bulls and the bears who are trying to protect the world from Musk's villainous clutches. It was looking pretty grim for the bears as the stock price kept going up and up, thanks mostly to Musk's "star link" satellite mind control network that he purchased in the Ukraine from some dubious characters.

But I digress. Thanks to the tireless efforts of the care bears, as they expired one by one from the razor sharp slashes of margin calls, they sent out a beacon, a message to the world. That's right, the bears carefully controlled the stock price in the final minute, ensuring it would communicate the Truth to the world: $419.22.

What, you ask, is the significance of 419? This carefully coded message has at last been deciphered. Chanos did the careful encoding, entrusting the message to MBS who dealt swiftly with those who would interfere for the world must know. Know what? The truth of Elon Musk's terrible perfidy, to expose the seamy underbelly of his Ponzi scheme, the advance money taken from hundreds of thousands of unsuspecting citizens who wished to own his sham of a car, deceived by the promises of the Model 3, and most recently the cyber truck.

With the help of Nigerian princes, the bears did their best and left the mark of the advance fee fraud encoded in plain sight in the stock price: four-one-nine.

Nigerian (419) Scam

(okay, maybe that was a little bit of a stretch)

 

[wipster]

OT, but not for me.
Got the VIN for my new Model X. Delivery date was set at 12-26, but delayed by me until 12-28, as it took 3 days for the sale of 308 shares on last Wed. to finalize. Called TIAA to initiate the withdrawal of the cash and was going to take three days(not counting Christmas) to move it to the retirement money market from which it can be withdrawn. So, the earliest I can start the transfer to my checking account is 8 am ET on Friday. I don't know how long that will take.

Damn I hope you can make it in time, transfers for me typically take 3 days.

I'm sure you can find some kind soul to lend it to you in order to get it in this year...

 

[The Accountant]

4) 2020 is going to be an amazing year where several aspects of Tesla's business start contributing to profits - MIC 3, solar roof, FSD - potentially driving up the stock price to 500-600 or more by the end of the year. All these three things are something that most analysts have not priced into their estimates.

5) If we get a non-profitable Q4 I think there will be pullback to the 350 range, but I consider this unlikely. If this happens I think the back and forth profit/loss will cast a question mark in analysts minds, even if Q1 is profitable, dragging the share price down for the next 6-9 months... AKA buying opportunity.

Thanks for your thoughts on 2020.
I have dry powder arriving on January 2nd and I have been thinking about how to invest this in TSLA.

2020 will be a momentous year for TSLA reaching ATHs throughout the year. I believe TSLA will deliver at least $10 EPS (GAAP) in 2020 and if you apply an 80* P/E multiple, the stock should rise to $800 by year-end 2020 (I would be happy to see $650).
However, I believe that similar to 2019, Q1 could be a hiccup in 2020 with consensus estimates too bullishly high. We could see a drop in the share price in April when the P&D report and Q1 earnings get released. The SP may not increase again until June/July when we see MiC at full production and MY entering the market....and then it's off to the races straight to $650+.

The question is whether to invest in January or anticipate a potential SP drop in April (or half in Jan and half in Apr)
I've decided to go all in with my new funds in January. If the stock drops in April, there's no issue as I am a long term holder and the SP will come back in June/July. If I were to wait for an April SP drop, the drop may never arrive and then I am entering at a higher point.
Conclusion: With funds arriving on January 2, the best time to invest is January 2.

* An 80 P/E is not unreasonable for the growth TSLA is exhibiting.

 

[M3Rider]

Technically paid for mostly by the P85D that I sold, but the shorts did pay for a Roadster!

You mean virtually or you reserved one at
Tesla Roadster ?
and can fill us in on the features later?

 

[StealthP3D]

This news of a 60+ car pileup was posted earlier here. My wife said “hey there is probably a Tesla in there somewhere”, and noticed that the vehicle to the far right being loaded on the tow truck sure looks like a Tesla Model 3. Anyone agree/disagree?

Police: 69-vehicle pileup in Virginia leaves dozens injured

View attachment 492126

It kind of resembles a white Model 3 but it's definitely not. The trunk is too short and the rear end is too narrow. It looks like an inexpensive econo-car.

 

[RobStark]

I wonder what kind of sales practices that would have BMW investigated?

BMW says being investigated by U.S. SEC

Maybe they were to optimistic in their emissions, MPG?

Investigation secured.

FCA was fined for forcing dealers to register cars,put them into loaner fleets, and count those vehicles as sold in order to inflate sales numbers.

It is normal for dealers to do this of their own accord, in small numbers.

FCA was fined for actually forcing dealers to do this in large numbers in order to get allotment of the more desirable vehicles.

Some dealers, not any OEMs so far, have been accused of essentially loan sharking. Seeking out low FICO score customers, selling them a car they know they won't be able to make payments for over the course of the loan, and repossessing after a significant down payment.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not sure, but, if it is, it would make for more concise headlines,


Police: 69-vehicle pileup in Virginia leaves dozens injured

Another Tesla crash, more injuries

You know how we know there were no Teslas in that pileup?

Because the media had a helicopter all over the scene, taking high-resolution photos. But there were no headlines say there was a Tesla involved. If there was a Tesla in there, the only place it could have been is hidden underneath that red F-150 that was up on top. Short of that, if there was a Tesla in there, it would have been all over the headlines. Guaranteed.

 

[RobStark]

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (18%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%) remains firm in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (9%), suffering from a short lineup, while Mitsubishi and Hyundai, stay outside the podium, both with 7% share.

EV Sales: Europe November 2019

 

[intelligator]

It kind of resembles a white Model 3 but it's definitely not. The trunk is too short and the rear end is too narrow. It looks like an inexpensive econo-car.

The model 3 glass continues to converge towards the rear of the car, it doesn't notch outwards before the trunk lid. It isn't a model 3.

 

[Pezpunk]

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (18%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%) remains firm in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (9%), suffering from a short lineup, while Mitsubishi and Hyundai, stay outside the podium, both with 7% share.

EV Sales: Europe November 2019

Tesla wins in a blowout, and if you ranked them by total revenue, the other manufacturers wouldn’t even be in the same ballpark.

 

[M3Rider]

With all the excitement today, this hilarious article didn't register with me, but maybe somebody brought it up?

Elon Musk on Twitter

See what happens when Dana Hull becomes irrelevant?

 

[CalX]

All of the excitement today surrounding $420 (and $420.42 and $420.69) and I missed the most important piece of numerological information today: the closing price. It was hotly contested between the NSFW marijuana toking bulls and the bears who are trying to protect the world from Musk's villainous clutches. It was looking pretty grim for the bears as the stock price kept going up and up, thanks mostly to Musk's "star link" satellite mind control network that he purchased in the Ukraine from some dubious characters.

But I digress. Thanks to the tireless efforts of the care bears, as they expired one by one from the razor sharp slashes of margin calls, they sent out a beacon, a message to the world. That's right, the bears carefully controlled the stock price in the final minute, ensuring it would communicate the Truth to the world: $419.22.

What, you ask, is the significance of 419? This carefully coded message has at last been deciphered. Chanos did the careful encoding, entrusting the message to MBS who dealt swiftly with those who would interfere for the world must know. Know what? The truth of Elon Musk's terrible perfidy, to expose the seamy underbelly of his Ponzi scheme, the advance money taken from hundreds of thousands of unsuspecting citizens who wished to own his sham of a car, deceived by the promises of the Model 3, and most recently the cyber truck.

With the help of Nigerian princes, the bears did their best and left the mark of the advance fee fraud encoded in plain sight in the stock price: four-one-nine.

Nigerian (419) Scam

(okay, maybe that was a little bit of a stretch)

I show after hours closing of 419.69
; )

 

[StealthP3D]

The market finally realized that Tesla has been wrongly valued in 2019 and tries to anticipate a better valuation for 2020 but I don't hear people really understanding what they have in front of them.

Having said that, this stock is far away from any sort of over evaluation and although I never will exclude that we dive again one day maybe to test $400 or $380 again all signs point to a better sentiment in 2020 and more higher highs.

Right now there is an upwards dynamic that will find a stop somewhere but we are in not known territory therefore no one knows and frankly said I don't care anyhow simply because I don't intend to sell a single share for the longer future so why should I bother.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, I mostly agree with your sentiments and I assume the second sentence should read "over-valuation".

The one reason I care about the short-term share price behavior is it helps tell me what is going on. Even though I don't intend to sell, my investment is substantial and the share price movements help me know where we are in this bull run. I think everyone should be prepared for the possibility of a sharp but quick trip to $390. It's not a high probability based on the buying strength I'm seeing but such a technical correction after the recent run would not be highly unusual. But the recovery from such a drop would be fast and furious so it's not something I would worry about.

Periodic small but sharp corrections are pretty much required behavior for a stock on a run like this to continue running higher. These corrections act as confirmation to new buyers that the existing shareholders are not about to dump their holdings into a market with no buyers and, this early in the run, such a correction will probably last less than two days. As the bull run matures they can be more gradual, drop further, and last a few weeks before the stock has shaken out all the weakest hands and can move higher. All of this is NORMAL and REQUIRED. Moves like this do not reflect on the health of the company or it's prospects, they are merely a reflection of the market participants.

And, no, I don't think it is wise for investors to try to work these expected moves because they are, by nature, largely chaotic and unpredictable in terms of exact timing and magnitude. I've seen time and time again how people who think they are being smart and protecting their capital from loss wind up missing out on most of the compound growth of the type of phenomena TSLA is in right now. The amount of money left on the table by people who sell early is shocking!

I suspect the majority of people here are holding less than 1000 shares which is really insignificant in terms of being able to substantially influence the price movements so I do not bring this up as some sort of way to help prop up the bull run for selfish reasons. It matters very little what small holders do (and most small holders of TSLA stock do not even read this forum). The fact of the matter is the beast has already been released and it's going to do what it's going to do regardless of what us small holders do. I just don't want to see the Tesla early adopters and shareholders leave a huge pile of potential profit on the table. And, yes, all of us who own a Tesla are still considered "early adopters" in my book. Everything is relative, of course, and some of you are earlier adopters than others (some by a number of years).