Don't forget the water shortage. It seems very unlikely that further major growth would be possible for Reno. Substantial output increases might be were continuous efficiency improvements materialize. Probably the most important area of improvement needed is reducing need for water. Housing supply increases are obviously easy to do physically, but from whence comes the water supply? Water rights and supply have plagued this region, including Southern California since before I was born. Above all issues California Central Valley agriculture looms large.
The Reno/Sparks area gets it's water from the Truckee River:
Water Rights | Truckee Meadows Water Authority
That cryptic paper illustrates the issue. Zero new construction is possible there without acquiring water rights. Water rights actually do not convey the right to water if there is not enough to go around. The odds of inadeqaute flows from the Truckee River are rising very rapidly:
Science in the Truckee River Basin
Note that the Sierra Nevada snowpack is the primary source for Lake Tahoe which feeds the Truckee River.
Without going into excessive detail there will not be any substantial increase in water rights for GF-1 nor will there be for and major residential projects. Major conservation efforts might allow more growth, but without them any expansion will be self-defeating. There is no real disagreement about the crisis brewing but there is enormous disagreement about how to deal with it.
The first paragraph talked about Southern California only because almost the entirety of California (SFO East and South) and Nevada depends ultimately on snowpack. Wildfires happen due in large part to very dry conditions. Those happen when snowpack is inadequate to feed the rivers, streams and soil.
To be very clear about my opinions, I think both Fremont and Sparks are very challenged to have any substantial growth because of water limitations. The planning horizon for these projects is at least two decades. Thus I expect all significant growth for Tesla to be located in areas that are relatively resilient to climate change.
Is anybody in any doubt about this?
Here's a recent article about the issue, although it speaks almost entirely to the Las Vegas issues:
Water scarcity in Nevada hits 'critical mass,' state director of natural resources says