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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Stream for China deliveries
Thanks for the link, the event is concluding.
A few notes:
  • Live proposal!!! The girl said yes!!!
  • 15 employees today are only representatives, more employees will get delivery in the following two days.
  • Customer cars will start being delivered in Jan
  • Tesla China operation will be “several times bigger in next year, exactly how many times can not be discussed yet”
  • Double Chinese service centers in 2020
  • Double Chinese superchargers in 2020
  • Thankful for supports from central and local governments, without those it would not be possible to break ground and deliver cars in the same year!!!
 
I get the sentiment of this post but the reason I invest in Tesla is because I agree with the company’s inspiring mission “to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” and your post I find in conflict with this mission.

Tesla will not accelerate the transition if it goes around trying to kill competition. Instead, it should INSPIRE competition to do better by showing the way—by making the best sustainable-energy vehicles and technology on the planet.

This is an all-hands-on-deck mission.

Not in conflict at all.

*They* never wanted to be inspired. They wanted status quo because you know: lying, cheating and killing people makes them money. They pretended Tesla didn’t exist. They laughed at Tesla. They predicted Tesla would fail. Some tried to kill Tesla. All suggested they could out manufacture Tesla at a drop of a hat. A few finally decided to try and copy Tesla to show off how awesome they are. They don’t actually deserve to survive.

Now Tesla kills them without even having to try unless they decide to smarten up and partner with Tesla on Tesla’s terms. Yeah, that’s not going to happen, so bu-bye.
 
Seeking Alpha posted good news for Tesla today, without mentioning Tesla.

Auto/truck makers face long-term hurdles as emission standards ratchet up

In order to meet the new [European] rules, manufacturers will have to sell many more hybrid and electric vehicles there or pay costly fines, a situation similar to China, the world's largest car market. The problem for investors is the lack of profitability since manufacturers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, environmentally friendly products will not sell if priced above gas-users but offer little or no margins if priced competitively.

Except for Tesla products... SA somehow forgot to mention.

But the news item was emailed to their TSLA list, so maybe some potential TSLA investors will learn something they didn't know.
 
Not in conflict at all.

*They* never wanted to be inspired. They wanted status quo because you know: lying, cheating and killing people makes them money. They pretended Tesla didn’t exist. They laughed at Tesla. They predicted Tesla would fail. Some tried to kill Tesla. All suggested they could out manufacture Tesla at a drop of a hat. A few finally decided to try and copy Tesla to show off how awesome they are. They don’t actually deserve to survive.

Now Tesla kills them without even having to try unless they decide to smarten up and partner with Tesla on Tesla’s terms. Yeah, that’s not going to happen, so bu-bye.

One way to read that post is out loud, using the voice of the main character from the movie 300. :)

But still, the fact is, Tesla will never single-handedly replace every single ICE vehicle on the planet. There are too many out there and there is not enough time, due to the climate crisis clock ticking away. It's going to require all the automakers to switch to EV. Remember, even the largest automaker on the planet only has what, around 10% world market-share. Tesla, less than 1% currently. We all hope it gets to 5%, maybe 10% some day. But that still leaves 90% of the rest.

Sure, some automakers are going to go out of business in the next 10 years. There will be chaos, some consolidation, and a shuffling of the remaining players on the field.

Tesla's goal, to be true to its mission and to its investors, should be to execute brilliantly, always focused on accelerating the whole world to switch to EV however fast it can, however best it can.
 
RSUs are a different beast, I agree. I've been at companies that used those as well. I'm not sure if Tesla is in the option category, or grants RSUs. I'm assuming the former.

I believe all of these employee equity compensation packages are budgeted on dollar terms at larger firms, which is the proper way to do it as all of these are GAAP expenses. Even options are GAAP expensed by estimating the fair market value based on the Black-Sholes model.

(@The Accountant might be able to confirm/debunk.)
 
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Seems like one of the GF3 employees who was taking delivery of one of the first MIC Model 3s just proposed to his girlfriend during the handover. The frunk was filled with flowers, and I suppose the car was part of the deal…

Interesting marketing idea for China: if you want her to say yes, get yourself a Model 3!

Reminds me of this Chinese ad, which explains the cultural importance of car brands and other status symbols to young Chinese bachelors:


(This old ad uses the wrong car brand of course.)
 
Interesting read from the Euro motorsports perspective on VW's recent announcement and what the new emission fines will mean.

Coming years will be "brutal" for combustion racing - WTCR boss

"But it is what it is. And we have to live with it. If we all love combustion motorsport, and I think we do, the coming years will be brutal, violent. There will be decisions, in any championship, which will be so hard, so difficult, in every category of motorsport. Rallying, F1, touring cars, GT. The series that won't adapt to the energy transition of the automotive industry can die...If we don't pay attention we can become obsolete a few years down the road."

"Was it difficult to hear Volkswagen's decision? F**k me, yes, it was. I was shocked. But don't forget that Volkswagen is the manufacturer which 'dieselgate' came from. It's difficult, but at the same time, you have to understand the pressure the car manufacturers are under. Next year, the European Commission fines kicks off. You're talking even for small manufacturers hundreds of millions of euros paid to the European Commission just to have the right to keep selling cars in Europe. Volkswagen, a group like Volkswagen, the way they see themselves, three, four years down the road is no combustion cars sold at all."
 
Not in conflict at all.

*They* never wanted to be inspired. They wanted status quo because you know: lying, cheating and killing people makes them money. They pretended Tesla didn’t exist. They laughed at Tesla. They predicted Tesla would fail. Some tried to kill Tesla. All suggested they could out manufacture Tesla at a drop of a hat. A few finally decided to try and copy Tesla to show off how awesome they are. They don’t actually deserve to survive.

Now Tesla kills them without even having to try unless they decide to smarten up and partner with Tesla on Tesla’s terms. Yeah, that’s not going to happen, so bu-bye.

The US government will not allow Tesla 100% market share of US Autos.

Triply so for foreign markets.

The German government will not allow VW to fail.

The French government will not allow Renault to fail.

The Japanese government will not allow Toyota to fail.

Rivian, Lucid and other startups don't support the status quo.
 
But still, the fact is, Tesla will never single-handedly replace every single ICE vehicle on the planet.

Nobody said otherwise.

Sure, some automakers are going to go out of business in the next 10 years. There will be chaos, some consolidation, and a shuffling of the remaining players on the field.

Nobody said otherwise.

Tesla's goal, to be true to its mission and to its investors, should be to execute brilliantly, always focused on accelerating the whole world to switch to EV however fast it can, however best it can.

Tesla has always been true to their mission. Not Tesla’s fault no other established OEM had any desire to get on the mission train. Not Tesla’s fault no other established OEM felt inspired. And it’s not Tesla’s job to self-sacrifice for other established OEMs.

Quit trying to make Tesla responsible for other established OEMs not getting their heads out of their asses. Tesla showed the world what an EV can be and continues to do that every single day.

As a Tesla investor, I want Tesla to annihilate every single established OEM without exception simply by continuing on the path they’ve chosen. No need to go out of their way, OEMs doing it to themselves.

As a human on this planet: ditto.

As a human on this planet, I welcome new EV car companies as long as they don’t Tesla bash as proof they are for all of us and not just themselves.

As a human on this planet, we’re already up the creek without a paddle. I’m only left with hope we somehow manage to pull a rabbit out of our hat. In the meantime, I’d welcome an unhealthy relationship with a disgusting amount of money curtesy of TSLA.
 
Here is the marriage proposal video on Youtube:


Some other women were tearing up in the background. Talk about building the "Made in China" Model 3 Tesla Brand without any advertising right out of the gate on day one! Hope these videos go viral in China. Every bachelor who can afford one will be buying a Model 3 just to make sure she says "yes". (Of course, Tesla was in on it because they arranged it so that it would be the last symbolic delivery.) Advertising can never match what happened in Shanghai at GF3 because ads are fake.

Later, when these young married couples have kids, they can buy a "Made in China" Model Y.

upload_2019-12-29_20-42-4.png


GF 3 Proposal.JPG
 
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I thought to check for VW's plans for the batteries needed for 1 million cars and sure enough:

Slide 9, "Battery supply secured": I wonder if Diess will be sued when this turns out to not work like he had envisioned?

Even more interesting is this little unexpected tidbit:
Slide 10, "Level 5 autonomous driving will take up to 1 billion lines of code": Trying to get to L5 by writing that much code - and doing it with sufficiently few detects - will not be possible on any relevant time scale.

For comparison, the Linux Kernel that runs (on) every Tesla is only on the order of 10^7 lines, with 99% of that being drivers and portability(*). So between the actual Linux kernel and Diess L5 strategy you have 4 orders of magnitude in lines of code that have to be correct - and the complexity of the software to be validated does not just grow linearly with the number of lines of code.

Clearly, VW's lack of understanding of software goes way beyond being unable to write what they need for their ID.3 .

Contrast that with Tesla's FSD approach, which now is a matter of tagging relevant training data and applying that to their Neural Network.

For Tesla, this is awesome news.

PS. (*) Linux runs on an astounding number of platforms - and includes the source code for drivers for all supported peripherals. Naturally, any actual system (like a Tesla) will need only a minute subset of this vast majority of the code.

Wow what the ****. Billion lines of code? I wonder if this is just crazy management speak without talking to their actual devs and engineers or what in the hell is going on over there at VW.
 
The US government will not allow Tesla 100% market share of US Autos.

Triply so for foreign markets.

The German government will not allow VW to fail.

The French government will not allow Renault to fail.

The Japanese government will not allow Toyota to fail.

Rivian, Lucid and other startups don't support the status quo.

Says you.

First, nobody said anything about Tesla having 100% market share.

No government you mentioned can force its citizens to buy vehicles they don’t want. So unless your precious OEMs start delivering EVs that people want AND can afford, don’t hang your hat on your best guess of what you think is going to happen.

Rivian and Lucid have yet to manufacture anything, in any significant quantity. You keep touting them, and hopefully they can survive, but until they actually start pumping out tens of thousands of vehicles a quarter, and people buy them, and love them and the vehicles prove reliable, and economical, and, and, and, you might want to be a bit less confident about their place in the future.