Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Happy and safe New Year’s everyone!

And remember - AP is NOT a DD!!

 

[Drumheller]

I estimate between 50,000 and 140,000 deliveries for Q4

Break is over. Back to analyst training.

 

[M3Rider]

I'm expecting 108-110, which would be a meaningful beat of Q3's 97 and comfortably within guidance.
Less - sp down, more - sp up.
ER i'm hoping is better than Q3.

 

[Etna]

Kinda funny this time we don't see ridiculously high production estimates from the usual suspects in order to manufacture a miss, since that would mean meeting guidance so the bots get stuck into an infinite loop.

 

[deffu]

4Q deliveries will be fine, they would've pushed 2k out the door today in China if needed. 362k-365k or so for 2019. 4Q earnings will probably also be a non-event with less SP run-up than usual and little movement after.

What's really gonna blow the doors off is Battery Day. When I think about all the things they could drop that day, it's gonna catch everyone by surprise. Not gonna detail my predictions, just think even the posters here will be on the low end of what's announced. Exciting times.

True, battery day may disrupt the “sell on news” tradition

 

[HG Wells]

So, when will thes sales numbers be released ?
Thursday AM, Thursday PM, Friday AM or Friday night ?

 

[RFernatt]

I estimate between 50,000 and 140,000 deliveries for Q4

Break is over. Back to analyst training.

Training? Looks like you're ready for the big leagues with Mr. Jonas and the rest! All you got to add is 'bear case' on the low end and 'bull case' on the high end and knock off early for some golf.

 

[printf42]

Training? Looks like you're ready for the big leagues with Mr. Jonas and the rest! All you got to add is 'bear case' on the low end and 'bull case' on the high end and knock off early for some golf.

Probably training other analysts.

 

[mongo]

I too am eagerly looking forward to Battery Investor Day.

I just hope Elon applies his own standards of "show me" and "prove it" battery-claim skepticism to Tesla's claims that will be made that day. I want roadmaps, dates, milestones, and at least a few short-term shipping dates for new battery technology in cars that can be ordered *that day*. I don't want just pie-in-the-sky pronouncements. I'm hoping that's why this day has been pushed out a bit into 2020. So as many of the announcements as possible can be real not just promised.

At autonomy day, Elon did say it would be show and tell, so I'd expect (near) ready to go hardware.
Also looking forward to it.

 

[JRP3]

Happy and safe New Year’s everyone!

And remember - AP is NOT a DD!!

Yet

 

[HG Wells]

I estimate between 50,000 and 140,000 deliveries for Q4

Break is over. Back to analyst training.

I think you nailed it!

 

[deffu]

Kinda funny this time we don't see ridiculously high production estimates from the usual suspects in order to manufacture a miss, since that would mean meeting guidance so the bots get stuck into an infinite loop.

I wonder if there is really any people who do their investing based on those analysts report, including traders from their own bank. I know people becoming analysts on Wall Street directly out of graduate school. They do focus on their field of studies but have zero industrial experience.

 

[gerebgraus]

You'll note from the header that that was for capacity, not production rate.

Based on unprecedented international deliveries and findings of other modelers, my prediction is 116k. I don’t believe this number, but that’s what my figuring comes to anyways. If true, that yields 372k

I think it’s highly unlikely that it’s lower than 363k for three highly qualitative reasons:

1: Tesla did not make a crazy rush of deliveries in China although they probably could have done 2,000 on 12/31 if they HAD to. They delivered 15 on 12/30 and “more employee deliveries on 12/30 with customer deliveries beginning in January “

2: Tesla did not offer any deals to clear inventory or push sales like we have seen in the past as EOQ approached.

3: Elon Musk has appeared to be relaxed and happy for weeks. Exuding quiet confidence.

Anyone else willing to go on the record with their prediction?

I have the same estimate. Q3 was 97K with 17 days of new inventory. Inventory (without GF3) left this quarter may be half of that, so that adds ~9K. The total unknown to me is Fremont production. We know that Panasonic GF1 battery cell production increased ~20%. We also know that in Q3 earning conference the CFO stated that demand is much higher this quarter, so they do everything to increase production. After a serious scientific process. (i.e. I looked at my belly button for 10 minutes) I have concluded that the increase resulted in an extra 10k production. Now, this calculation is higher than Troy estimate. The major difference is in the USA sales. In Q3 which was not a tax benefit cut off the USA Model 3 sales were 43K. Obviously because of the tax benefit cutott demand this quarter in the USA is much higher. Tesla prioritizes countries with benefit cutoff coming and that includes now the USA. Given that they started focusing on NA production only in December that indicates to me that by that time their production was much higher than 7000/week. If I am wrong then I need to improve my scientific process, e.g. take off my jacket before looking at my belly button or something like that.

 

[GOVA]

Merry New Year to you all.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So, when will thes sales numbers be released ?
Thursday AM, Thursday PM, Friday AM or Friday night ?

I think it will be Thursday morning.

 

[AZRI11]

111,111

Q would be like

 

[Snerruc]

I'm utterly floored that Tesla owners have to call a contractor for everything. Am I the only one who's breaker box was in the garage, went down to Lowes, bought a 220 volt breaker, outlet, box and wire, and just installed their own darn outlet? It just isn't rocket science.

Ummm... that outlet you bought at Lowe’s is NOT rated for high amperage long hours duty or for frequent plugging/unplugging. Been there done that.

 

[jerry33]

I estimate between 50,000 and 140,000 deliveries for Q4

Break is over. Back to analyst training.

Okay, that'll take ten minutes. How are you going to fill the rest of the day?

 

[Skryll]

I'm expecting 108-110, which would be a meaningful beat of Q3's 97 and comfortably within guidance.
Less - sp down, more - sp up.
ER i'm hoping is better than Q3.

rising stock price ma have changed orders of last month to higher margin configurations but also delayed / disrupted some preproduction planning. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t beat on units but beat on revenue and margins

 

[Curt Renz]

Merry New Year to you all.

Welcome to the Twenties!