Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

But @Bet TSLA is correct that stock splits don't change the value of the underlying options contracts: on splits the OCC will adjust existing options, either by changing the number of shares from 100 to 200, or by adjusting the strike price (or both).

So stock splits (and reverse splits) are mostly invariants to options.

Obviously new options contracts written after a split will be different, with lower option value per contract after a split.

But to investors it makes little difference.

@Cherry Wine is right that, in the absence of splits, options trading will be affected. He wasn't claiming that the OCC would not adjust outstanding contracts for splits, but that the large vs. small value of the underlying will affect the depth, and spread in the options market. Consider an ATM call option on BRK-A. You'd need $34 million to exercise one contract. Thus there is no market for options on BRK-A, only because the share price is so high. Options do trade on BRK-B where the minimums to play aren't ridiculous. If TSLA gets to $5k/share the options trading is going to dry up because the minimum position (1 contract) will be unpleasantly large.

 

[bhtooefr]

...although, as options trading is fundamentally speculation rather than investing, could that be a desirable outcome - options being impossible to trade - for Tesla?

I could see an issue with employee compensation, though, but not a big one, because ESOs and RSUs can be less than 100 shares AFAIK.

 

[WarpedOne]

Srečno novo leto from Slovenia

 

[Opus BC fan]

A happy and prosperous New Year to you all.

I look forward to seeing you all on the 2020 thread.

 

[JRP3]

In November 2017, Jim Chanos Said Elon Musk Would Leave Tesla By 2020 — That’s Within 1 Day

Reuters: In November 2017, Jim Chanos Said Elon Musk Would Leave Tesla By 2020 — That's Within 1 Day | CleanTechnica

 

[sundaymorning]

No way Elon said 3k per week for GF3 this year, that is the eventual target. Maybe 3,000 total from GF3 by end of 2019.

And I still think Q1 being tough was related to quarter over quarter deliveries as view when the Q2 earnings call happened (GF3 status unknown). The Q3 call showed strong demand and GF3 is going smoothly. Q1 will be great. At least 94k deliveries, a 10% boost over this quarter .

ah, that makes more sense. Thanks for the clarification, I feel much better now. Somewhere along the way I had my information mixed up.

Is there confirmation that we are in fact 1k per week, or is Tesla extrapolating from an output of 28 Model 3s per hour? If we are extrapolating I would put that number closer to being at 500 per week steady state and 1k per week at maximum efficiency where a few robotics would have minor hiccups and burn out (don’t laugh, it occurred in Fremont in the early days of M3 ramp and FUD were used against us).

 

[sundaymorning]

In November 2017, Jim Chanos Said Elon Musk Would Leave Tesla By 2020 — That’s Within 1 Day

Reuters: In November 2017, Jim Chanos Said Elon Musk Would Leave Tesla By 2020 — That's Within 1 Day | CleanTechnica

I’m hoping for someone with more technical skills to one day put together a video of all the absurd things Chanos/Lutz has said about Elon/Tesla, similar to what’s said above. Then a follow up of how Elon has time and time proven the doubters wrong.

 

[Green Pete]

Software update not yet on Tesla Fi rolling out. Tesla engineers hard at work on New year's Eve. Small version bump though x.6 => x.7. smallest one I've seen yet, only 80mb

I imagine the people in Teslas software engineering department are feeling very motivated these days

Edit: nothing new in the release notes

 

[sundaymorning]

Cleveland Tesla Center. Usually very busy and crowded at the end of each quarter. Here is how it looked this afternoon. Completely sold out! Empty Show room!

View attachment 494982

Same here in Tesla Los Angeles, I initially was very excited at the prospect of Tesla selling out their showroom vehicles as well as used inventory (for the exception of a few performance models), but then my senses came together and told me that selling out old inventory models would make the most sense to get ride of the 2019s to welcome the 2020s to avoid massive depreciation on model years across all Tesla stores.

Legacy dealerships would give massive sales at the end of the year for clearance purposes.

 

[Cattledog]

they’ll be delivering 360k per quarter in the not too distant future. that’s all that matters to me.

I'll bite.

At 50% growth year over year (Elon's prediciton at various times), we get quarter over quarter growth of around 10.67%. If you assume that Q4 2019 is 110,000 production, they'll be producing over 360,000/quarter by Q4 of 2022. Clearly Tesla operates in step-functions, an exponential function at 10.67% compounding won't be it. But Q4 of 2022 might align nicely with:

G4 producing 3s and Ys at a good clip (assuming they won't match Chinese G3 construction pace) - 30,000/quarter
G3 producing 3s and Ys at maximum clip - 80,000/quarter
Fremont producing 3s, Ys, Ss and Xs at maximum allowable speed limit in California (assumes Fremont tweak) - 220,000/quarter (80,120,10,10)
Cybertruck being produced somewhere at a good clip - 25,000/quarter
Roadster being produced somewhere at a good clip - 2,500/quarter
Semi being produced somewhere at a good clip - 2,500/quarter

If you want to figure deliveries vs. production, I guess slide it a quarter to Q1 of 2023.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Thank you all for the solid posts in 2019, which cemented the feeling that I had to hold on to my shares during the big drop in H1, but also convinced me to double down (which made me quadruple my original number of shares and drastically lower my average price). I am not sure if I would have been able to take that leap of faith without the many informed voices gathered here. Thanks!

And thanks to the shorts too for providing that unique buying opportunity in 2019. Now go away.

 

[mongo]

Is there confirmation that we are in fact 1k per week, or is Tesla extrapolating from an output of 28 Model 3s per hour? If we are extrapolating I would put that number closer to being at 500 per week steady state and 1k per week at maximum efficiency where a few robotics would have minor hiccups and burn out (don’t laugh, it occurred in Fremont in the early days of M3 ramp and FUD were used against us).

Yeah, they said 1k a week and 280 in a 10 hour day.
They run a 6 day work week with one day of training. 5x280 is 1400, so the 1k is believable.

 

[JustMe]

I’ll leave the 2019 thread with this silly ditty that I just made up:


Short shorts roasting on a rising stock
Cramer singing bullish prose
Lynette slung the FUD as GF3 rose from mud
Tesla’s wonders zoom round the globe!

 

[Matt L]

I think Elon was targeting 3,000 a week by end of 4th Q in China, but we’re only at 1k at this point. So what does that mean for Q1 2020 since he expected a bad quarter, will it be even worse now? I’m a bit disappointed in that missed target for GF3; which is why I don’t think Elon is sandbagging or lowballing this quarter, I think he truly wants 104k and will do just enough to meet it.

I think you are wrong

 

[Jovian]

Thank you all for the solid posts in 2019, which cemented the feeling that I had to hold on to my shares during the big drop in H1, but also convinced me that I had to double down (which made me quadruple my original number of shares and drastically lower my average price). I am not sure if I would have been able to take that leap of faith without the many informed voices gathered here. Thanks!

And thanks to the shorts too for providing that unique buying opportunity in 2019. Now go away.

Same here, thank you everyone. I doubled my position during the big drop between ~180-240 this year and so far looking like a good decision (I remain a long buy and hold strategy). This would not of happened without the high quality of information I received from browsing this thread hours a day. Not celebrating yet, but am optimistic for the future!

Keep up the high quality posts, welcome healthy skepticism, and let us continue into 2020 with a durable optimism.

 

[kbM3]

ah, that makes more sense. Thanks for the clarification, I feel much better now. Somewhere along the way I had my information mixed up.

Is there confirmation that we are in fact 1k per week, or is Tesla extrapolating from an output of 28 Model 3s per hour? If we are extrapolating I would put that number closer to being at 500 per week steady state and 1k per week at maximum efficiency where a few robotics would have minor hiccups and burn out (don’t laugh, it occurred in Fremont in the early days of M3 ramp and FUD were used against us).

I think you are wrong

No way Elon said 3k per week for GF3 this year, that is the eventual target. Maybe 3,000 total from GF3 by end of 2019.

And I still think Q1 being tough was related to quarter over quarter deliveries as view when the Q2 earnings call happened (GF3 status unknown). The Q3 call showed strong demand and GF3 is going smoothly. Q1 will be great. At least 94k deliveries, a 10% boost over this quarter .

Elon’s original goal was 3k / week from GF3 by the end of the year. It was subsequently lowered to 1k-2k / week.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Same here in Tesla Los Angeles, I initially was very excited at the prospect of Tesla selling out their showroom vehicles as well as used inventory (for the exception of a few performance models), but then my senses came together and told me that selling out old inventory models would make the most sense to get ride of the 2019s to welcome the 2020s to avoid massive depreciation on model years across all Tesla stores.

Legacy dealerships would give massive sales at the end of the year for clearance purposes.

You want to point to your evidence for 1) Tesla having model years; and 2) there being massive depreciation?

 

[Matt L]

Elon’s original goal was 3k / week from GF3 by the end of the year. It was subsequently lowered to 1k-2k / week.

Where and when did he say that?

 

[Boomer19]

well, enjoy your evening everyone.

hopefully by chinese new year 1/25, thousands of quality MIC 3s will be spilling off the line and into the happy arms of their customers, leading to an influx of positive media (social and mainstream) coverage that will go a ways to lock down, shut up, and shut out the next percentage of the naysayers still hanging on
...one step change at a time, battle by battle. still lots to look forward to, still plenty of obstacles and hurdles ahead.

not far into 2019 we found dismal and gloomy weather. we’re on track now and whirring like a P motor on takeoff from a standstill. let’s hope this growth and performance run continues, with tesla inc and tsla.

2020
we need to see what the panasonic impact will be at GF1 for production.

also what battery day brings

semi, looming in the shadows like a caged lion
- and ditto for TE, the caged and angry silverback gorilla

Y and 3
how many can they make and sell as one starts to mature and the other is discovered.

CT, prob no impact on 2020 fiscal, but it will continue to be discussed and showcased... who expected that kind of buzz at the moment of the reveal, it’s probably 50x more talked about than roadster

will this version of roof be as popular to that demographic as S/X was? or more like 50k asp 3s?

what new products might we see in 2020? something energy related perhaps?

and on and on...

happy new year everyone!

 

[anthonyj]

Still some time left