Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Disagree. The Mach-E is pretty compelling, and they intend to ramp production well beyond compliance. While the Y does almost everything better, the Mach-E screws up very little. It certainly needs the $7500 fed incentive to compete with the Y, but with the incentive, it does indeed compete. Ford could be the number two electric car provider in the USA if Nissan does not step it up again. Ford will also be limited by battery supply as the main production constraint.

IF their stated range holds up.... that's a huge IF.

Too many times we've been fooled to believe competitor EVs would have acceptable range and end up being significantly less than what was initially stated.

 

[lklundin]

Very typical mistake for traditional enterprises trying to master software.
They think the outcome is linear to the team size they have.
Reality is when team size cross a certain threshold, not only efficiency drops, the total productivity drops too.
But, the money they put in would be linear to team size, so they would count the sinking money as assets, no problem at all.
Actually that’s another mistake right there, instead of using 10x salaries to find 100x programmers, they retain bunch of 80% people with 95% salaries, they get things done as you asked, sometimes. And they would never surprise you.

In short, there is no hope for those big traditional enterprises led by bean counters to master software. The end.

I may be stating the obvious, but the correct strategy for getting a complex software project to succeed is thus to hire the single most competent architect/developer in existence and center the effort around this person, a bit like a surgeon with a team of not-necessarly-as-skilled supporters.

Example: For a company set on FSD that person would likely amount to Andrej Karpathy...

 

[printf42]

I may be stating the obvious, but the correct strategy for getting a complex software project to succeed is thus to hire the single most competent architect/developer in existence and center the effort around this person, a bit like a surgeon with a team of supporters.

Example: For a company set on FSD that person would likely amount to Andrej Karpathy...

Not just one, a small team of them. But you need to have one to find the others.

 

[JustSaying]

The entry point for bus manufacturing is relatively easy because you only have to design and build the body. Everything else is off the shelf. So Toyota would have to compete with a number of smaller companies that have a much lower overhead.

A bus might be might be the best place to use their Hydrogen Fuel Cell Tech.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I saw somewhere maybe prodigy.net that it was going to have Myspace pre-loaded. Alerts were going to be pop-ups in the HUD.
Seriously though, I don't know if it was here that I saw a chart of efficiencies comparing all existing and soon to be EV's and Mach-E was scrapping the bottom of the barrel.
I consider these sales of competitors that really aren't, (competitive that is) "spite sales".
There's a member on the Bolt forum that is convinced that Tesla is single handedly destroying the planet. I should add, he drives a Mirai. These people would rather walk than drive a Tesla.

Oh happy Day!
Is that Tesla hater still around?

Wow. Those posts from 7 months ago deserve some kind of “it would be impossible for you to be so wrong” award.

“ I predict it will be below $100 before year end”

“The sales of the model 3 have fallen off a cliff. They've run out of the dumb*ass lemming sheeple who ignore how crappy the car is and are now encountering conventional consumers who expect quality from a car and are passing on the m3, in favor of other EVs.”

“I said long ago that the M3 sales would tank as soon as the reservation holders all had their cars.”

 

[1101011]

Encountered my first authentic "coal fired electricity" debater this morning.

No conversion.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I know I'm repeating myself but what I'm seeing in Tesla is the exact same thing I saw in Apple around the time the iPhone came out. So many people, including analysts who should know better, can't understand the concept of a "disruptive" company. There were tons of "iPhone killers" that came and went all the while I would watch Apple's market share grow, Nokia, Motorola, Palm, Ericsson ... remember those names? Apple put the hurt on those established companies and Tesla will do the same thing to the auto industry .... although the pain here in the US will be much more severe as the US was never a major player in cell phone production. Ford, Chrysler, GM and many other companies are now having to figure out how you sell the next technology to your customers while relying on ICE vehicles to fund the transition and many won't be able to do so. Dealers will be closing, parts manufacturers will be closing, auto part retailers will be closing .... it's going to hurt big time. There is no stopping this. At the end of the day technology moves on and sometimes leaves casualties in the process ....

Tesla will eventually have competition but for my purposes it won't matter as the market for EV's is huge and there is plenty of revenue out there for more than 1 winner .... I don't know who the other's will be but I do know Tesla will be one of them.

Cheers to the longs ....

 

[S3XY]

How did I miss the cheese discussion? Dammit, now I'll have to sift through 100 pages.
Help a brother out. If I filter my search with "nacho cheese", will that point me in the right direction?
Not OT, planning on selling my Tesla shares for cheese futures.

You need to stop on top of things in this thread. There tends to be a lot of churn.

 

[JustMe]

I know I'm repeating myself but what I'm seeing in Tesla is the exact same thing I saw in Apple around the time the iPhone came out. So many people, including analysts who should know better, can't understand the concept of a "disruptive" company. There were tons of "iPhone killers" that came and went all the while I would watch Apple's market share grow, Nokia, Motorola, Palm, Ericsson ... remember those names? Apple put the hurt on those established companies and Tesla will do the same thing to the auto industry .... although the pain here in the US will be much more severe as the US was never a major player in cell phone production. Ford, Chrysler, GM and many other companies are now having to figure out how you sell the next technology to your customers while relying on ICE vehicles to fund the transition and many won't be able to do so. Dealers will be closing, parts manufacturers will be closing, auto part retailers will be closing .... it's going to hurt big time. There is no stopping this. At the end of the day technology moves on and sometimes leaves casualties in the process ....

Tesla will eventually have competition but for my purposes it won't matter as the market for EV's is huge and there is plenty of revenue out there for more than 1 winner .... I don't know who the other's will be but I do know Tesla will be one of them.

Cheers to the longs ....

I agree with your perspective. As far as “the pain in the US will be much more severe...” Agree with all of that, but at least Tesla is an American company!

And as for Toyota, GM, Volkswagen... they will probably survive, but not without significant *shrinkage*

 

[Dreadnought]

Out of the need to scratch a memory itch, I looked up some things and....take a look at the following. From exactly one year ago:

Mercedes-Benz EQC Sold Out For 2019, Probably 2020 | CleanTechnica

A quick search for EQC wait time returned a couple of 4..6 months, one source with an 8 months estimate (
Lieferzeiten für Elektroautos | carwow.de). With the tighter CO2 emission standards as of this year, it's only consequential that they would defer any 2019 orders into 2020. It's too early to tell if they're demand constrained, intentionally delayed deliveries or facing production issues.
What we do know is that Mercedes' fleet average has to come down considerably (31g per Der CO2-Flottengrenzwert 2020 | heise Autos). They have a huge incentive to sell EVs, even at a loss.

I know, but the actual presentation from VW linked in the same post says 7,000 software experts in 2020. Either they're not both correct, or the "new unit" is a subset of the "software experts" -- but I'm not convinced we have the full picture in any case. It would make no sense to take a team of 500 and just scale it up to 10,000 and figure you'll be good.

...not that it exactly makes sense to manage the project based on lines of code, or plan to deliver 50x the complexity of the F-35 fighter software...

Well, those billion lines of code for FSD aren't going to write themselves.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[CanadaEV]

Not just one, a small team of them. But you need to have one to find the others.

Hence... Elon Musk

 

[Remus]

Final answer does not make it a correct answer.

If Japan sees vehicle production as a matter of national security (they do) then the support will never end, at least while they can print their own currency and set their own rules on tax and importation. They can create the conditions where the domestic population wants to buy domestic products due to any number of regulatory levers the Japanese government can pull. You see the same thing every day in China.

First principles of this discussion: Japanese national security.

Many of the events you describe may come to pass but the end result is incorrect. Domestic vehicle production in Japan will happen and Toyota being the monster in the industry will be supported.

Clear violation of WTO rules, will be retaliated by other countries. Japan being an island country, they can't afford it.

 

[mongo]

You need to stop on top of things in this thread. There tends to be a lot of churn.

No whey, the churn is in the butter thread.
The cream thread is a sticky and stays on top.
The cheese thread stands alone.

 

[JustMe]

I found another YouTube channel that gives nice updates on Tesla & EVs. Probably not much new to learn for regular visitors to this forum. But I like their style and the couple is adorable. At least there is no need to speed up the playback (Jack Richard) or slow it down (Hyperchange)!

 

[Fred42]

Mod: 18 posts about former member moved to the service thread. Please take all discussion over there. --ggr.

When things are moved I can't find them. I just spent a few minutes unsuccessfully looking for a service thread.

 

[Tim S]

Thrilled to finally have joined the ownership family, thanks in part to TSLA

View attachment 496407

Congrats. I bet this is happening a lot right now.

TSLA goes up... More TSLA investors can afford Teslas and with more options... Tesla revenue and ASP increases... TSLA goes up... Repeat

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Clear violation of WTO rules, will be retaliated by other countries. Japan being an island country, they can't afford it.

More to the point, Japan is facing a real population collapse crisis. They won't be able to afford anything in 20-30 years.

 

[RFernatt]

A bus might be might be the best place to use their Hydrogen Fuel Cell Tech.

I think Proterra (the Tesla of bus manufacturers) would disagree, for city transit buses anyway. I am looking forward to their IPO.

 

[KarenRei]

He seems to flip from bull to bear and back every 6 months, I haven't worked it out either...

My favourite was how he recently posted a video of Navigate on Autopilot misbehaving because it didn't take a turn .... and NoA wasn't even on. And because he messed with the wheel, AP itself went off a couple seconds in. Then the car (obviously) keeps careening straight ahead, toward the barrier and seconds later he jerks the wheel to the right, shouting "Jesus!", as if the car was supposed to be steering the whole time.

 

[ggr]

When things are moved I can't find them. I just spent a few minutes unsuccessfully looking for a service thread.

Service and communication (out of main)