Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SoGA Fan Club]

Anyone care to count how many incorrect predictions Tilson made in this interview?

"The beginning of the end for Tesla" - bwahahahahaha!

Tesla: This is the Beginning of the End

 

[ReflexFunds]

My favourite was how he recently posted a video of Navigate on Autopilot misbehaving because it didn't take a turn .... and NoA wasn't even on. And because he messed with the wheel, AP itself went off a couple seconds in. Then the car (obviously) keeps careening straight ahead, toward the barrier and seconds later he jerks the wheel to the right, shouting "Jesus!", as if the car was supposed to be steering the whole time.

Pump and dump too early.

Distort to buy back in.

It's an ugly look.

 

[Buckminster]

WTF!
Haven't watched yet but WTF!

 

[SebastianR]

WTF!
Haven't watched yet but WTF

How do we get through 2 hours and extract the essence in 2 minutes?

edit: Please let this not be the 2nd “Santa isn’t real moment” for me today - I don’t care what he says about financials, that’s not his area. But if he says something about their technology, my heart will be broken...

 

[Khamul]

How do we get through 2 hours and extract the essence in 2 minutes?

Judging from the comments on it, he thinks Tesla is overvalued at the moment.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this afternoon: https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/04/tesla-model-y-prototype-spotted-new-wheels/

InsideEVs - this morning: Tesla Model 3 Production In China Already Above 3,000 Per Week

Schaeffer's - yesterday: Tesla Eyes Another Record Close on Model 3, Delivery Updates

 

[JustMe]

Judging from the comments on it, he thinks Tesla is overvalued at the moment.

THANK YOU

 

[Beltsbear]

Judging from the comments on it, he thinks Tesla is overvalued at the moment.

Judging by some metrics, you could justify now at the current price that Tesla is overvalued. I am long and overweight Tesla myself, but if you see no value in FSD (as Jack has stated many times) and ignore energy , you could come to that conclusion.

I value jacks knowledge and insight, but also have seen him go really far out there including his interactions with others. So he is human and not perfect. But anyhow, if I were to short something, it would be anything but Tesla. Short FCA. Short GM. Short the suppliers of auto parts that are going away. While bad things could happen and drive Tesla down, they could have another cybertruck level thing as a surprise announcement at any time as well. GM isn’t coming out with anything game changing.


I really hope he didn’t actually short Tesla. That could be problematic for him.

 

[KarenRei]

Judging from the comments on it, he thinks Tesla is overvalued at the moment.

Judging from the comments, he's hedging his stock with PUTs rather than going short.

 

[Khamul]

Judging from the comments on it, he thinks Tesla is overvalued at the moment.

And further, it seems he has just bought puts, not shorting for real (no idea what the difference is, I'm just buying stocks and holding them).

 

[KarenRei]

And further, it seems he has just bought puts, not shorting for real (no idea what the difference is, I'm just buying stocks and holding them).

He explains what he's done:

* "I'm expecting lots of volatility going forward."
* He's bracketing way OTM - he's bought 300x $600 Feb '20 ($67500) and 40x $600 Mar '20s calls ($19400), but also 70x $300 Feb 20 puts ($7070) and 30x $350 puts ($12330). E.g. short $19400 and long $86900, for a net of $67500 long. Sold 801 shares at $404 (= $323604; 300 shares remaining) to fund it and some other plays and take out cash.

Dangerous bracketing, Jack... a holding pattern is very much a possibility, where profit takers and shorts piling back in due to the stock price are countered by renewed optimism and analyst upgrades. Not much time on those puts and calls...

He later admits that he knows what he's doing is dangerous and gambling, and the best strategy is generally just buy and hold, "but I can't help myself". That these sorts of playable swings are just too tempting.

 

[Freder Reeve]

A bus might be might be the best place to use their Hydrogen Fuel Cell Tech.

(i'd rather walk)

 

[GOVA]

WTF!
Haven't watched yet but WTF!

Whomever has been able to watch even one of his videos in full, at normal speed is my hero (not)
I am glad he's a fan and all, but please don't.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Disagree. The Mach-E is pretty compelling, and they intend to ramp production well beyond compliance. While the Y does almost everything better, the Mach-E screws up very little. It certainly needs the $7500 fed incentive to compete with the Y, but with the incentive, it does indeed compete. Ford could be the number two electric car provider in the USA if Nissan does not step it up again. Ford will also be limited by battery supply as the main production constraint.

Well Ford better start pumping them out fast because as of April 2019 they already had 115K “EV” sales (including plug-in hybrids).

 

[capster]

Gene Munster likes $900

SolarNola️ on Twitter

That’ll work for me.

 

[Beltsbear]

Judging from the comments, he's hedging his stock with PUTs rather than going short.

Which us very different then being short.

 

[JRP3]

Which us very different then being short.

Clickbait title

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Judging by some metrics, you could justify now at the current price that Tesla is overvalued. I am long and overweight Tesla myself, but if you see no value in FSD (as Jack has stated many times) and ignore energy , you could come to that conclusion.

I value jacks knowledge and insight, but also have seen him go really far out there including his interactions with others. So he is human and not perfect. But anyhow, if I were to short something, it would be anything but Tesla. Short FCA. Short GM. Short the suppliers of auto parts that are going away. While bad things could happen and drive Tesla down, they could have another cybertruck level thing as a surprise announcement at any time as well. GM isn’t coming out with anything game changing.


I really hope he didn’t actually short Tesla. That could be problematic for him.

Wouldn't you also have to ignore the Cybertruck and Semi, and maybe even the Y too? Tesla's currently at at PSR of ~3.2, and if Fremont can keep pace with Q4 production that could drop to ~2.5. 3 production from GF3 could get it well into the 1.x range. Adding Y production to the mix could put the PSR at or below 1, and the Cybertruck and Semi should also sell well. That's assuming of course Tesla's valuation remains the same and they can keep operating margins positive. If operating margins go negative for a significant length of time I imagine the valuation will get hit in proportion to where those margins are.

Granted, Tesla may need additional capital/debt for cell production expansion, either with a partner or themselves, but having Grohmann and Perbix integrated into the company seems to have been very advantageous with respect to improving and expanding production.

 

[Mike Smith]

Mercedes-Benz recalls 750,000 cars for sunroofs that can fly off

 

[Beltsbear]

Wouldn't you also have to ignore the Cybertruck and Semi, and maybe even the Y too? Tesla's currently at at PSR of ~3.2, and if Fremont can keep pace with Q4 production that could drop to ~2.5. 3 production from GF3 could get it well into the 1.x range. Adding Y production to the mix could put the PSR at or below 1, and the Cybertruck and Semi should also sell well. That's assuming of course Tesla's valuation remains the same and they can keep operating margins positive. If operating margins go negative for a significant length of time I imagine the valuation will get hit in proportion to where those margins are.

Granted, Tesla may need additional capital/debt for cell production expansion, either with a partner or themselves, but having Grohmann and Perbix integrated into the company seems to have been very advantageous with respect to improving and expanding production.

No. The multiples on traditional auto makers are terrible. Going by some of them, Tesla should be a $100 stock. Of course the reason why Tesla does not get a traditional auto maker multiple is that it is expanding at a huge rate. Think about GM or Toyota. How could GM or Toyota ever expand to 3x their current size? It would be downright impossible. How could GM or Toyota triple earnings? That just cannot happen. So they get a PE of 5x. On the other hand, even without FSD, Tesla could expand by 10x while maintaining margin. I know I am preaching to the choir here.