Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
In the comments someone is saying the date on the picture is 2020.3.20. So a Model Y program opening ceremony in March 2020?

That might make the ? mark building the model Y factory in Fact Checking's posts since that is where they are removing the old parking lots and clearing ground.

Something to keep an eye on anyways as we attempt to understand the layout.

That date in the low res picture is definitely 2020.1.7
 
  • Informative
Reactions: madodel and Thumper
Note to everyone here: do not be "this guy":

Zack on Twitter

He did apologize, but he also hid the tweets criticizing his behavior, kept the ones making excuses for him basically stalking a woman in a parking lot because she was in a Model Y and calling her a b**** when she asked him to stop filming her, and left his video up.

Note to everyone: cars do not have personal space or bodily autonomy. Go ahead and accost them (within the bounds of property law). But do not act like that to people, under the excuse that you "have the legal right to". The fact that somebody else has something that you want does not, ever give you the moral right to accost them because of it.
 
Last edited:
Note to everyone here: do not be "this guy":

Zack on Twitter

He did apologize, but he also hid the tweets criticizing his behavior, kept the ones making excuses for him basically stalking a woman in a parking lot because she was in a Model Y and calling her a b**** when she asked him to stop filming her, and left his video up.

Note to everyone: cars do not have personal space or bodily autonomy. Go ahead and accost them (within the bounds of property law). But do not act like that to people, under the excuse that you "have the legal right to". The fact that somebody else has something that you want does not, ever give you the moral right to accost them because of it.

Agree 100%, talk about entitlement issues.
 
Per the article, Amazon had profits of 1.2B in 2010 when their market cap was at $88B.
Interesting to note; Amazon had subsequent years with losses and achieved a higher market cap.
- Amazon lost 39m in 2012 and their market cap was $118B
- Amazon lost $241m in 2014 and their market cap was $143B

Investors understood the company was investing to drive future value.
Amazon has a market cap of 941B today. The company grew more than 10x in 10 years.
Hmmm what company today has the potential to do this? ;)

I can't believe we're comparing the most high-tech product on the market with Amazon who is still using AGVs, lots of employees (slaves), and delivery drones that have yet to launch. That's our closest example to rapid growth? I would think Intel corp in the 80's would be a better example of technologies (but have not compared). I just remember a lot of splits in the 80's driven by technology dominance (and some luck too). Moore's Law comes to mind and may actually apply to Tesla in so many ways.
 
Elon Musk to Come to Shanghai for Debut of Made-in-China Teslas
Bloomberg - early this morning: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

From the article:
"The tough market could mean that Tesla sells just 21,000 China-built Model 3s this year, according to LMC Automotive".

Tesla sold about 14,000 Model 3 in just 2 months (Nov + Dec) in China.
What kind of forecasting gymnastics gets you to 21,000 in all of 2020?o_O
 
I can't believe we're comparing the most high-tech product on the market with Amazon who is still using AGVs, lots of employees (slaves), and delivery drones that have yet to launch. That's our closest example to rapid growth? I would think Intel corp in the 80's would be a better example of technologies (but have not compared). I just remember a lot of splits in the 80's driven by technology dominance (and some luck too). Moore's Law comes to mind and may actually apply to Tesla in so many ways.
I'm torn on that one. On one hand I want to say that Tesla has far more capability to disrupt than Amazon or Apple has/did. But disrupting retail/books/cloud storage and disrupting the PC/phone/music business were pretty big deals as well.
 
From the article:
"The tough market could mean that Tesla sells just 21,000 China-built Model 3s this year, according to LMC Automotive".

Tesla sold about 14,000 Model 3 in just 2 months (Nov + Dec) in China.
What kind of forecasting gymnastics gets you to 21,000 in all of 2020?o_O

And this was pre-MIC Model 3. Now model 3 will be 8k cheaper - 7k a months should be the lowest estimate possible. :) my guess, they will sell every car they can manage to produce at GF3 within the Chinese market
 
I'm torn on that one. On one hand I want to say that Tesla has far more capability to disrupt than Amazon or Apple has/did. But disrupting retail/books/cloud storage and disrupting the PC/phone/music business were pretty big deals as well.

Would think competition would have an easier task to catch up to books and phones? Cars is a completely different beast, which Audi/Ford/Jag/GM show with their EV-struggles..
 
I'm having trouble understanding how TSLA is the worst performing FAANG stock today, despite such stellar P&D numbers...I know we went up a lot Friday, but dang ain't people covering their idiotic short positions?

Tesla is beating macros.

Some people are obviously going to be in profit-taking mode for a while, and some shorts who backed out of the stock earlier are looking for points to get back in. Relative stagnation punctuated by analyst upgrades and macro events up to the ER isn't a bad forecast, IMHO. But I could be wrong.
 
OT: To me, that song is the "Sound of Eurovision" - overplayed vacuous pop songs that are carefully engineered to get stuck in your head ;)

Which is why I was so happy that we sent Hatari, to go on stage and scream about how hatred will win and Europe will collapse, while the drummer hits one or more cages of demon-eyed women with a sledgehammer and the lead singer abuses a guy in a gimp outfit ;). And why I dread what sort of terrible, generic, eminently forgettable Eurovision act we're going send this year :Þ

It's like... remember when Ireland sent a techno-singing turkey puppet to compete in 2008? Scored terribly, but... you remember that. Anyone remember what Ireland sent in 2007 or 2009? Straight down the memory hole. Come on, Europe, be creative! Go out in a blaze of dadaist glory!

My sister could answer all this off the top of her head, I'm sure of it. She mad about Eurovision - it's a big thing in the gay community.
 
The Art of (not) Selling
I stumbled upon a very good blog post by Akre Capital (an asset management firm).
The post titled "The Art of (Not) Selling"

The Art of (Not) Selling - Akre Capital Management

Oh my! No one should consider themselves a good investor until they read and fully understand the very simple but very powerful concepts presented here!

Do not pass go and do not collect $200 until you have accomplished this.

Here's my favorite part:

You are given the choice between two sums of money: one million dollars or a penny that will double every day for 30 days. Which should you choose?

Here are a couple hints. The penny that doubles daily would be worth $1.28 after the first week. After the second week, it would be worth $163.84.

You will probably reason that the penny would be worth more than the one million dollars. (Why, otherwise, all the theatrics?) By just how much, though, might surprise you.

It turns out that after doubling 30 times, the penny would be worth $10,737,418.24!

This is a terrific exercise because it highlights the not-so-obvious power of compound returns (in this case, the penny compounds at 100% for 30 periods).

I say not-so-obvious because you would have been better off taking the one million dollars until the 27th day. But in those final four days, the value of the penny increases from less than $700,000 to more than $10.7 million. Patience and a long-term perspective are required to give the power of compounding an opportunity to do its magic.

Most do not naturally grasp the concept of compound interest. It has been called the eighth wonder of the world (first by Albert Einstein, supposedly) for good reason. Most of us have to learn to appreciate it. And even once learned, we have to remind ourselves periodically of its wonder.

From this riddle, we learn the importance of holding on so that we allow our investments to compound uninterrupted for long enough that the compounding effects we saw in days 27 to 30 have an opportunity to play out in our portfolios.

Now many will protest "but where can I find an investment that will double thirty times!". For those I'll remind this excercise started with a frickin' penny! You can skip the first two weeks (14 doublings) if, instead of a penny, you jump in with $163.84. And so on.

There are many other gems in this short blog post. I must say, it's rare that I read such a perspective and can't find one thing to take issue with. Read it, understand it, apply it and become wealthy. It really is almost that easy. People make this harder than it is because they think they need to micro-analyze every quarter's performance and have a hair-trigger on the sell button to make sure they don't lose a dollar. That's not how becoming wealthy works! The people who try the hardest fail spectacularly.
 
From the article:
"The tough market could mean that Tesla sells just 21,000 China-built Model 3s this year, according to LMC Automotive".

Tesla sold about 14,000 Model 3 in just 2 months (Nov + Dec) in China.
What kind of forecasting gymnastics gets you to 21,000 in all of 2020?o_O

Their rationale will be the declining EV market in China (35% or so drop during 2019) which in turn was due to declining government subsidies. Nio had a pretty terrible Q3 and consumer confidence in China was falling as of Nov last year.

But, much of this doesn't impact Tesla given their cars will be cheaper now than they were at the start of 2019, and Tesla wasn't benefiting from Chinese government subsidies (but now will). 21k is an extraordinarily low and naive estimate - it will be at least 5x that.
 
Would think competition would have an easier task to catch up to books and phones? Cars is a completely different beast, which Audi/Ford/Jag/GM show with their EV-struggles..
Perhaps, but Amazon wasn't facing any real competitors. I don't think Tesla really has the "IPhone moment" until FSD is feature complete.

Their rationale will be the declining EV market in China (35% or so drop during 2019) which in turn was due to declining government subsidies. Nio had a pretty terrible Q3 and consumer confidence in China was falling as of Nov last year.

But, much of this doesn't impact Tesla given their cars will be cheaper now than they were at the start of 2019, and Tesla wasn't benefiting from Chinese government subsidies (but now will). 21k is an extraordinarily low and naive estimate - it will be at least 5x that.
From my understanding of the Chinese EV market most of the market was made up of garbage compliance cars made just to collect the subsidies. That junk portion of the market is dead without subsides but that will not have any real impact on vehicles at Tesla's quality/price point.