Periodically today's swings look like panic buying. That will stop and a likely bounce downward which will hopefully be neither large nor long-lasting. In the long run just noise, to continue mouthing the obvious.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
So in that circumstance, partially recharge overnight, then head toward a Supercharger station and eat breakfast at a nearby restaurant.
How do I get to the restaurant without the car and how do I get the car back to charge if I drive it to the restaurant. There's a breakfast diner by the charger that is 200 miles from me!
Correct. 470 is not sustainable. We will probably hit 480 tomorrow (or later today).
I always felt kind of stupid driving around in a Ford Hatch with an Aston Martin Grille.
Now, I'm just confused.
Spot on assessment, helps me hang on easier.
So this is what I just wrote to my wife, and what I tell my friends when asked.
"There's nothing new really with Tesla, all very predictable, it's the future. Here's what I think is happening.
Longs like me are holding because we have yet to hear how Q4 earning are the end of Jan. As the stock percolates with all the wins, new ppl are jumping onboard (new longs next door that just discovered Tesla). Add that the S&P 500 inclusion is likely later this year and this could be causing financial institutions to get in early while it's still cheap. Then there are the shorts and any weak ones are now extinct. We have no indication that the short squeeze has occurred yet (and they may never pull out, but that's just the icing if so). Snowballing!"
Longs like me are holding because we have yet to hear how Q4 earning are the end of Jan. As the stock percolates with all the wins, new ppl are jumping onboard (new longs next door that just discovered Tesla). Add that the S&P 500 inclusion is likely later this year and this could be causing financial institutions to get in early while it's still cheap. Then there are the shorts and any weak ones are now extinct. We have no indication that the short squeeze has occurred yet (and they may never pull out, but that's just the icing if so). Snowballing!"
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jhm
Well-Known Member
I do very little trading in options. Usually I lose money buying an option. So I don't recommend it. It was a momentary lapse of judgement when I bought it, and I got damn lucky in the last month.
The problem is that Tesla has enormous volatility and options have an expiration date. Just 6 months ago the price looked miserable below $200. Had this run been delayed by a month I would have lost it all. On the other hand stock has no expiration date, so a delay of several quarters for this run would have been tolerable. One can just ride out bearish sentiment with stock, if you have no pressing need for cash.
A lot of this comes down to one's trading temperament. Psychologically buy-and-hold suits me much better than trade-trade-trade. I'm not good knowing when to take a profit. I can appreciate that other people are wired differently than me. So alot of investing comes down to self-knowledge and knowing what works best for you.
All the best, jhm
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
These call options have run up quite a bit.
Sold 1/4 and sold covered calls on 1/4 of them as well for $520 today cause I am boarding a plan and won't be able to check the market for 2 days.
MartinAustin
Active Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
I hope it lasts!
Yeah, if I had doubled down when my option was worth less than the transaction cost to buy, it would have been huge.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I've started to track the short interest, but the problem is that that information is only released twice monthly and with a delay of a couple of weeks so it is always stale.
Filling that void is the mission of @ihors3's company where they get data "from the street" and put it into the formula to predict what the current short interest is. Unfortunately, (at least when it comes to $TSLA) its all smoke and mirrors. When the shorts are piling on with extreme prejudice (as we find out later from the official numbers) he claims they are covering and the price is dropping because of weak longs.
Now he claims that it is a short squeeze, but given that he's been 100% wrong on every significant price movement with $TSLA I expect short interest is either level or increasing and the rise is being fueled by positive sentiment. Interestingly, that positive sentiment is also reflected in media coverage (compare to a year or more ago, its way different now).
In short, short interest is opaque and is made deliberately so by rules structured to favor short selling. All you can really do is track historical short interest, investor sentiment and use common sense. It will do you better service than @ihors3.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Wow. Only $3 B behind VW! When will Tesla become the world's second most valuable auto manufacturer??
I created a poll for your guesses here.
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No, waiting doesn't make a penny for you. You make money when by selling the stock higher than you bought it. Just ask Uncle Sam, he'll tell you when you make money.
Bigger, perhaps, but not useful also. What is important is to maximize profits. Buying a stock at a good price, missing a sell point and having to wait a year for it to rise again is a poor way to make money. I bought at several prices including on the way down (about what I thought might be bottom and I was about right). Now all my purchases are well up, as I said about 75% which is more like 80% now. I can capture profit now with larger tax payments or take the risk of the price dropping and waiting another quarter to be able to take advantage of long term capital gains tax rates. Even if Q4 and Q1 sales and profit numbers are good, unless they are great (which I think will be unlikely) the bubble can't continue.
So at that point I would be good with cashing out and waiting for the next bust.
Don't know what you mean by "net negative". Profit is profit. Taxes only ever take a portion. The comparison is known profit and taxes today compared to unknown profit but lower taxes tomorrow.
Look at it this way. You're sport-fishing and hook a huge Blue Marlin. Your fishing line is probably too light for such a huge fish. But you really want to land it, it's the biggest fish you've ever hooked. So you set the drag of your real to an appropriate level for the light line. When the fish puts up a fight you let him run. Even if it's a hundred yards at a time. The fish is much bigger than you and your skinny little fishing line. If you don't want him to get away from you you have to let him run, even if it's the wrong direction. If you fight him, you risk breaking the line and then you will never land the big fish. But with patience, and a soft touch, you can eventually reel him in. You will simply never land a huge fish if you fight it.
Strange analogy. Is it saying I need to sell now and collect my $150,000? Or hold onto it and see if I can turn it into $250,000? Is the fishing line options?? Are you saying it's time to short the stock???
Sounds like "The Pearl". I know how that ended.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I started reading about 10 pages back an hour ago, still almost 10 pages behind. What can you all be writing about? I guess the stock has either done really well or plunged in the last hour?
powertoold
Active Member
Nah, just discussing Elon's dance moves
No, waiting doesn't make a penny for you. You make money when by selling the stock higher than you bought it. Just ask Uncle Sam, he'll tell you when you make money.
Bigger, perhaps, but not useful also. What is important is to maximize profits. Buying a stock at a good price, missing a sell point and having to wait a year for it to rise again is a poor way to make money. I bought at several prices including on the way down (about what I thought might be bottom and I was about right). Now all my purchases are well up, as I said about 75% which is more like 80% now. I can capture profit now with larger tax payments or take the risk of the price dropping and waiting another quarter to be able to take advantage of long term capital gains tax rates. Even if Q4 and Q1 sales and profit numbers are good, unless they are great (which I think will be unlikely) the bubble can't continue.
So at that point I would be good with cashing out and waiting for the next bust.
Don't know what you mean by "net negative". Profit is profit. Taxes only ever take a portion. The comparison is known profit and taxes today compared to unknown profit but lower taxes tomorrow.
Strange analogy. Is it saying I need to sell now and collect my $150,000? Or hold onto it and see if I can turn it into $250,000? Is the fishing line options?? Are you saying it's time to short the stock???
Sounds like "The Pearl". I know how that ended.
How dare you question @StealthP3D
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Instead I will point out that with SP of 481$ Tesla will match VW at its current market cap!
- making Tesla second only to Toyota...
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Even though we all could say TSLA is high but it’s not, it will probably earn $7.00/ share this year and probably $12.00 for next year. stock was so compressed over last 4 years due to BS from short sellers.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Well, technically, I've made a pittance since I started investing last year (I sold some non-$TSLA to feed my $TSLA addiction), but according to Schwab I made $XXXX so far today.
You can be pedantic, but its how investors talk.
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