Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

If Tesla is indeed receiving 1000 orders a day at one or more stores, expect them to adjust to higher than 3K/week as soon as possible--but yes, they'll need to source battery capacity to do that. I actually think they should have left the MIC Model 3 price higher until battery capacity could meet demand, then lower the price to keep the two in check.

I actually think Tesla probably already planned for capacity beyond 3k/wk, but only announced 3k/wk both due to uncertainty and ensure that they underpromise.

 

[Ellec]

If there is a whale doing some heavy buying when would they need to declare it?

 

[jerry33]

If there is a whale doing some heavy buying when would they need to declare it?

My understanding is that it's when they have accumulated 5% of the stock. (Don't worry, it's not me.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Big mistake everybody makes with the 3k a week. This is the number from last week, expect it to be higher in 8 weeks. could be 4k/week at the end of january and maybe 5k/week at the end of february. Hopefully the drons will fly a lot the next week and maybe we can spot the uptick in numbers. The ramp was way faster then freemont, and the internal organisation is also way way better with way less startup issues.

Why do you, and other people, keep thinking that GF3 is going to ramp to double the capacity Tesla says it has, and on top of that so quickly? I wouldn't expect them to hit 2k/week until sometime in Q2.

 

[ProfTournesol]

They're battery constrained, like the rest of the universe.

not anymore, as battery production started in december, so the rampup will be faster then expected.

 

[mongo]

If there is a whale doing some heavy buying when would they need to declare it?

If they obtain over 5% they have 10 days to file a 13D.

 

[MP3Mike]

not anymore, as battery production started in december, so the rampup will be faster then expected.

Battery pack production began in December. But they still need battery cells from somewhere else to put in those packs.

And if the rumors are true the pack production is using the old, slow, equipment that used to be at GF1.

 

[Donatas]

Oh, stop. Talking about capturing forest ants and putting up netting to prevent frogs from forest entry IS crazy talk, whether the author got it right or is pulling it out his/her butt.

I’ve owned land with flood plain protections and still own farmland with conservation protection laws applied to portions of it. I get how this all works. I’m for it and I’m for the endangered species of bats being protected, moved or whatever. But I’m still going to call out ridiculous behaviors like relocating forest ants and the like.

I'm sure nobody is talking about moving lonely ants, it's about anthills. These are protected in Europe, destroying them is quite a serious crime and moving them is a standard practice.

 

[scaesare]

Somebody over at SeekingAlpha thinks Tesla is running out of steam. I've reached my limit for free articles so I couldn't read it, but here's the link if you want to read it:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315506-tesla-running-out-of-steam

"Dear SA-

Thank you for your article articulating how Tesla is running out of steam.

By your stance on Tesla's EV's, ewe know you are living in the past. But just to let you know, the steam powered era ended even before the internal combustion era really started, and cars never really ran on steam much anyway.

I look forward to your next installment of satire, thanks!"

 

[ZachF]

$85 billion market cap... closing in on VW for the no.2 spot!

 

[Krugerrand]

Let's just agree to disagree.

It's common practice over here (Western-Europe) to put up netting alongside all major roads twice a year to prevent massive decreases in toad population when they migrate for breeding. There are people that empty buckets full of toads regularly during these periods, on the other side of the road. In other areas they build little tunnels under the road for the toads.

It is somewhat hypocritical since the near extinction of the creatures in some areas are entirely due to poor regulating in the past, and only recently the EU is trying to save what is left to save.

Nonetheless, relocating animals is trivial in the long run and is most likely something Tesla agreed to when purchasing the land.

Address the forest ants, please and thanks. And how come no mention of earthworms or beetles? I mean, if you want to throw around the word hypocrite, you best be wanting equal rights for all the insects in the ground, in the trees, and in the air on that piece of property.

Relocating animals is trivial, really? I guess that all depends on if you’re the animal being relocated or not.

You likely missed my post where I suggested the conservation organization simply approach Elon about building a very specific bat habitat right there on the property. That’s actually better for the bats than being relocated and here’s why - bats have strong homing instincts and often simply return after relocation even from hundreds of miles away. Now when they return, there’s no home for them.

And FYI, since you felt the need to call out the USA, bat colonies are legally protected here and relocating (or killing) bats is actually illegal in the US. Exceptions not withstanding like a sick colony.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Not surprised. South Korea is another insatiable market that Must Be Fed

But wait...there's a demand problem, right?! lol!
Dan

 

[jhm]

My understanding is that it's when they have accumulated 5% of the stock. (Don't worry, it's not me.)

Just to put 5% into perspective, a 5% share is now over $4.2B. So there is opportunity for many institutional investors to have billion dollar positions that do no rise to the level of SEC reporting.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for the correction and the chart, I always love a chance to learn,,, still stand by my WOW! though

No problem, we all start at the beginning.

You can use this PermaLink to get a near-realtime version of that chart (15 sec update interval):

The Upper-BB opened at $481.57 today (see the RED curve), so there's still over $7.50 in headroom right now until we trigger certain technical selling:

Cheers!

 

[gerebgraus]

Opel is now owned by GM. Should this (same) model have been recalled, and if so, will GM be liable for burning several hundreds of other mark cars as well as totalling two extensive building structures (so far)?

Hmm, maybe go short GM? (as well as BMW)

GM sold Opel in 2017 to Peugeot. So short PSA?

 

[Todd Burch]

On cue, we have our MMD. So predictable..

 

[JusRelax]

If Tesla is indeed receiving 1000 orders a day at one or more stores, expect them to adjust to higher than 3K/week as soon as possible--but yes, they'll need to source battery capacity to do that. I actually think they should have left the MIC Model 3 price higher until battery capacity could meet demand, then lower the price to keep the two in check.

I actually think Tesla probably already planned for capacity beyond 3k/wk, but only announced 3k/wk both due to uncertainty and ensure that they underpromise.

I believe they lowered it immediately as a sign of good faith to early MIC M3 purchasers who would not have otherwise gotten the cheaper price.

One of the reasons I'm very bullish on Tesla in China is because, in my experience, Word of mouth is much stronger in Asia than it is in the Europe or America. I believe Tesla's $0 advertising budget will matter even less in China. However, since word of mouth is so strong there, I think it will be important to keep customer satisfaction levels there as high as possible, especially initially.

In a country more reliant on word of mouth advertising, would you rather have 10k unhappy initial MIC M3 owners complaining about sudden price drops that they couldn't take advantage of and have an extra $46 mil in the bank, or have 99% of your first 10k owners extremely satisfied and boasting about their MIC M3 purchase to everyone they know?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I actually think they should have left the MIC Model 3 price higher until battery capacity could meet demand, then lower the price to keep the two in check.

Yeah, I think that's the wrong move, when your intension is to 'Osborne' Mercedes C class / Audi 4 / BMW 3 sales.

Better to have those customers on Tesla's waiting list than in a ICE dealership's showroom...

Cheers!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Trump speech at 11AM could cause traders to tread water until then.

 

[Artful Dodger]

not anymore, as battery production started in december, so the rampup will be faster then expected.

Pack production started. They still need to outsource the cells.