Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

Tesla should come to South Carolina and put their factory next to BMW's world's biggest manufacturing plant.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla should come to South Carolina and put their factory next to BMW's world's biggest manufacturing plant.

Or they can wait 5 years and buy it from BMW at a discount

 

[TradingInvest]

I have new cash coming in. I will sell mid term out of money Puts to the shorts. If they don't give me shares at low price, I will keep doing this to them. Earned premium will be used to buy more TSLA shares.

 

[jhm]

4x vol (31.1M). Its the zombie apocalypse for Shortzes.

Ok, that was over the top.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Who's the dude on the forum here that has several thousand shares?

I think you'll find there are quite a few of them.

 

[LJS22]

US safety agency opens probe into fatal Tesla Model 3 crash in Indiana

We’ll probably see a lot of this tomorrow

 

[elasalle]

Lutz is probably just cleaning up his legacy by saying; "OK, now Tesla is a car company that knows what they are doing".

As if that erases all the untrue and horrible things he said about them in the past.

My thought was that he was there for a payed spot ("pay for say") on CNBC. Before they used him to stretch facts on the short side.

 

[TradingInvest]

Interesting. That's the kind of brainstorming I was looking for. That would bode very well indeed! Cheap insurance against the price rising above $700 before 1/17/2020.

If that's what's going on we are in for quite a ride in the next few days!

It could be a large short buying OTM calls to prevent margin calls;
Could be a new short simultaneously buying calls as protection;
Could be a speculator making a gambling trade, it doesn't have to go above $700 in order to make money;
Could be a large short ready to cover but don't want to drive it to the moon;
Could be a large long who already built a large position at lower price now is ready to drive it really hard.

When a stock runs like this, it could easily rally a lot and turn into a real short squeeze.

 

[Rashomon]

I agree with you. I simplified the cases to illustrate a point. It's all about the expected returns, there is a mathematical correct answer once we assign the probability to each scenario. I remember tivoboy said it would drop to 140 first. Some people got out to wait for the "best entry". Now they probably missed the train.

I sold a few shares at 380 & 400 as Tesla is a high percentage of my portfolio. But I bought that back and more at 443. The next two to three weeks are going to be interesting, as they say. Every indication is that earnings are going to be exceptional.

 

[StealthP3D]

That being the case, we easily and very accurately can call the entire group - we exclude "individuals" - the professional fund managers. So why cannot they beat the market? It is tautologically very simple. They ARE the market. Except, unlike the set of indices one needs to use to indicate market performance - S&P 500, Russell 3000, DJI - every one of these managers carries a cost of business - transaction costs and various management fees. The collective performance of all fund managers CANNOT do better than the "market's" performance. It is a mathematical certainty.

This group cannot do it in the short term - call it "one day"; they cannot do it in the long term - call it "30 years". Period. It is possible and a statistical probability - 'tho not a certainty - that in the long run there will be that manager who consistently has beaten the market. There is an absolute certainty that some managers' long term performance in toto has beaten the market. Peter Lynch did, George Soros and his original partner Jimmy Rogers has/did; Warren Buffet has, and of course there are others. But not not not the universe of all of them.

I think Lynch, Soros, and Buffet all had deals not available to individual investors. Equity stakes, etc. If you restrict the list of fund managers to those who buy publically traded companies at market prices, I don't think any of them have consistently beat the S&P500. Buffet made the famous 10-year bet in 2008: Warren Buffett beat the hedge funds. Here's how

"His (Buffet's) pick, the S&P 500 (OEX), gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%. The names of the funds were not disclosed.

You can see a graph of the performance of each individual fund here:

Buffett's Bet with the Hedge Funds: And the Winner Is …

So, even without averaging all the funds together, Protege Partners couldn't even pick one fund out of five top funds of their choosing to beat the SP500 Index over a 10 year period (or was it 9 years).

So that's a nice excuse for why fund managers can't beat the common index fund but it doesn't really hold water. The truth of the matter is all the MBA and Finance degrees in the world will not make you competent enough to consistently beat the SP500 Index over time. The difference in performance was so stark, even had the fund managers waived their customary fees, they STILL would have lost the bet!

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

I have never been this excited to get up in the mornings. Checking $TSLA within second of opening my eyes has taken priority over all things tech or biological. I keep thinking we're at the top of the rollercoaster ride... click click click, but it keeps going!

Still holding all shares. I want my certificates framed and not let anyone short mine ever!

50% loss...

Remember fellahs, shorting is the inverse of investing. When you invest money long, your downside is 100%, and your upside is the moon... With shorting, your upside is 100%, and your downside is the moon.

Anyone who shorted at bleow $245 now, has a greater than 100% loss if they haven't covered.
People who shorted in the $300-350 range that the stock liked to trade in from 17-19 have lost about half their money.
Even people who shorted at the higher ranges the stock was trading at are looking at ~30% losses now.[/QUOTE

$39. That's to ensure my TSLA shares earn at least a small profit. Please don't say that makes me a weak long.

OK, that's impossible or I would have been cashed out shortly after purchase.

In reality I keep raising my stop limit to slightly less than double the current price. My broker says that is sufficient to prevent my shares from being lent to short sellers. Others here may want to do the same, although some brokers may require a tighter stop. [/QUOT

Ex-GM executive Bob Lutz finally has something encouraging to say about Elon Musk and Tesla

I remember seeing Bob Lutz on CNBC at least 3 years ago coming on CNBC saying how great electric cars will be in the future. He said "You will be able to just plug one in and it will go 500 miles on a charge". After that he totally changed his tune. It's almost like somebody just paid him off or something. Does anybody else remember the TWO FACES of Bob Lutz?

 

[phantasms]

Managers can beat the market. It’s rare but doable. My grandfather-in-law Seth Glickenhaus did it for many years. Not a lot of players out there like he was. He passed away a few years back at 103. One of our last conversations was him asking me what I thought about Tesla. My answer was dead wrong.

 

[anthonyj]

Has Elon sold?

No.

Has Larry Ellison sold?

No.

So why sell? Why even think? Don't even look at your portfolio. No point! Unless you are a REAL bull and you want to sell those $600 strike calls when they are in the money. This isn't even bullish af yet. We are what, 25% over the previous trading range? LOL you think this is bullish af? You don't know what bullish af is yet.

 

[MartinAustin]

I remember seeing Bob Lutz on CNBC at least 3 years ago coming on CNBC saying how great electric cars will be in the future. He said "You will be able to just plug one in and it will go 500 miles on a charge". After that he totally changed his tune. It's almost like somebody just paid him off or something. Does anybody else remember the TWO FACES of Bob Lutz?

...and if you go back far enough... before anyone got to Bob Lutz...

Clearly the people who were until recently paying Bob Lutz to say anything negative he could think of about Tesla have stopped paying him - either because they ran out of money, they can now see Tesla is unstoppable, a multi-year contract ran out, Bob Lutz is refusing to do it, or some other reason.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Has Elon sold?

No.

Has Larry Ellison sold?

No.

So why sell? Why even think? Don't even look at your portfolio. No point! Unless you are a REAL bull and you want to sell those $600 strike calls when they are in the money. This isn't even bullish af yet. We are what, 25% over the previous trading range? LOL you think this is bullish af? You don't know what bullish af is yet.

I own one of each June 500,520 and $530 call. I paid $300 for all three of them. They are now worth over $16,000. If the stock isn't over $500 by june I will loose the whole $16,000. Of course I can sell before. I had some higher up options but I already sold them hoping to buy back cheaper but that didn't happen.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

...and if you go back far enough... before anyone got to Bob Lutz...

Clearly the people who were until recently paying Bob Lutz to say anything negative he could think of about Tesla have stopped paying him - either because they ran out of money, they can now see Tesla is unstoppable, a multi-year contract ran out, Bob Lutz is refusing to do it, or some other reason.[/QUOTE

I only heard the bull Lutz one time but it just stuck in my head.

 

[Curt Renz]

A Tesla feedback loop has been immensely strengthening in recent months. The stock market, bond market and automobile market have all been drawing tightly together to instill into each other a firm realization that Tesla is the real thing.

Tesla stock and bond prices have been zooming during a process of true price discovery. This has led to more and more potential Tesla car buyers becoming aware of Tesla cars and their advantages, and allowing them to feel confident that the maker will be around for a very long time. The Tesla car demand this creates further encourages people, including car buyers, to buy Tesla stock and bonds. Hence the highly energized feedback loop.

 

[Dutchie]

"I am long on TSLA, not selling before $4000”

That phrase "long" is starting to look way shorter than anticipated. April or May this year???

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Wow Elon was so young in that video. That had to be over 5 years ago.

 

[StealthP3D]

I remember seeing Bob Lutz on CNBC at least 3 years ago coming on CNBC saying how great electric cars will be in the future. He said "You will be able to just plug one in and it will go 500 miles on a charge". After that he totally changed his tune. It's almost like somebody just paid him off or something. Does anybody else remember the TWO FACES of Bob Lutz?

You mean the Pre-Model 3 Bob Lutz and the Post-Model 3 Bob Lutz?