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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So while we wait for the official Nasdaq short interest to post, where did this week's volume end up? 99.5M shares. To put that in perspective, here are the other highest weekly volumes back through 2019:

  1. Week of January 6th, 2020 (99.5M shares) Open: 440.47 / Close: 478.00 (current week, first full trading week after release of Q4'19 P&D report)
  2. Week of May 20th (98M shares) Open: 202.80 / Close: 190.63 NOTE: First full trading week after infamous cost cutting "10 months of cash burn rate" Elon leaked e-mail
  3. Week of April 29th (78.7M shares) Open: 235.86 / Close: 255.03 NOTE: Week after Q1 Earnings
  4. Week of October 21st (78.1M shares) Open: 258.33 / Close: 328.13 NOTE: Q3 Earnings Week
  5. Week of April 22nd (78.0M shares) Open: 269.00 / Close: 235.14 NOTE: Autonomy Day / Q1 Earnings Week
  6. Week of June 3rd (76.6M shares) Open: 185.51 / Close: 204.50 NOTE: 52-week low
  7. Week of December 16th (73.2M shares) Open: 362.55 / Close: 405.59 NOTE: Week of a number of good news developments including TSLA achieving ATHs.
It should be noted that the next highest volume week is in the 50M range, so these are all significantly higher than average volume week.
There's only about 181 million shares floating right now? So more than half the entire float was turned over this week. That's what I call an actively traded stock...
 
Sellers when the stock was cheap during Q2 2019. They might have bought options at the same time or later, which is not reflected here.
Screen Shot 2020-01-10 at 8.20.20 PM.png
 
I'm confused by this, all energy used by the car comes from the battery, how could HVAC power draw not be charged for when supercharging?

It's possible the car says "My battery went up by 34 kWh during this session" and the supercharger says "I dispensed 40 kWh during this session" and previously they charged you for the 34 but now they'll charge you for the 40... Just speculating, though.
 
Ground Hog day. We keep talking about this over and over.

If Tesla selling a car would result is excessive profits for the buyer, Tesla will sell for a larger price - because they will have limited # of cars to sell. If they don't sell it for a much higher price, the guy who bought it will.

There are lots of unknowns,
  • when FSD will be approved in various jurisdictions,
  • the global market for Robo-taxis
  • and the residual market for private cars....

Tesla is still planning to make 20 Million vehicles per year at some stage...

My hunch is the FSD software will be expensive, but if the car is in the Tesla Network, a private buyer may be able to progressively pay that off in say monthly instalments..
 
Buyers:
Screen Shot 2020-01-10 at 8.31.59 PM.png

Look at the top holders:
Elon Musk will not sell;
Baillie Gifford both managers think Tesla is likely to become one of the largest companies in the world;
Capital World Investors, their analyst expects this stock to hit $4k by 2030;
Vanguard is buy and hold type;
BlackRock chief strategist had an interview, he thinks the world is going through a major transition, Tesla is an important leader in this transition.

Sellers are short term traders. Buyers are in it for long term. So it's unlikely for these holders to sell when the stock goes up.
 
My apologies if I missed it, but I didn't see the short interest shown like this. So far this is what I expected, that short interest reached a high at the end of the year -- the net short covering has been too little to keep the value at risk level.

I had been expecting the short interest to drop at the mid January reporting, but with the pause in stock price the last couple of days I suspect there has been a significant number of new short positions opened so I'm revising my expectation to an increase in the short interest, though perhaps only slight. Of course, there are a few more trading days before we reach that point and we won't find out until the end of the month what the snapshot will have been.


TeslaShortInterest-2019.jpg
 
Did we get a rundown of the thread today?
The uneasiness of a Friday set in early as many wondered what kind of support would be shown and how many more may continue taking profits, but an analyst gave our favorite company a price target upgrade! (However it seems one upgrade did not cancel out two downgrades) but in between we were given an education in battery density amongst EV’s. However as the market opened we began seeing a Jack-o-lantern like mouth appearing on the charts as the buying was met with even more selling, many pointed out the low volume but things never got too high or low. Shorts seemed scared to manipulate at these levels. The concern wore off as we realized that much of the action today centered around option traders and their max pain, it seemed to just be another friday. After some jokes and acknowledging that we are at $475 a share much relief set in across the forum. We even began an engineering class for a couple pages (some brilliant minds in here) but class was canceled by a mod. And recently it seems we have learned that shorts are not disappearing despite their losses. The thread will quiver with excitement over the weekend as we ponder the long awaited run to 500!
Fill in the blanks for our time constrained friends!
 
Are you including musk shares in float? They don’t trade and should be excluded in the float
Market Watch lists 179.13M shares outstanding with a float of 133.82M. While there should be agreement on the shares outstanding, the float varies. IIRC, Bloomberg has previously reported a higher float than Market Watch.

edit: given NASDAQ listed market cap and share price I calculated 179.05M shares outstanding. Not sure why that would differ from Market Watch.
 
Tesla Model 3 SR+ & P and Model S & X US delivery estimates have moved to 8-11 weeks in the configurator. Model 3 AWD is at 7-10 weeks.

Right now US wait time: AWD 4~7 weeks; SR+ 7~10 weeks; P 8~11 weeks.
It seems the plan is first produce for OUS, then produce a large batch AWD, then produce SR+, then P.
The timing shows this quarter has good demand.
 
I'm confused by this, all energy used by the car comes from the battery, how could HVAC power draw not be charged for when supercharging?
There’s two way communication between the car and the charger, so presumably they charge by the amount of charge actually added to the battery. This would avoid, for example, charging for losses within the charger(heat through the cables, any issues with the terminals, etc.)
 
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Buyers:View attachment 498818
Look at the top holders:
Elon Musk will not sell;
Baillie Gifford both managers think Tesla is likely to become one of the largest companies in the world;
Capital World Investors, their analyst expects this stock to hit $4k by 2030;
Vanguard is buy and hold type;
BlackRock chief strategist had an interview, he thinks the world is going through a major transition, Tesla is an important leader in this transition.

Sellers are short term traders. Buyers are in it for long term. So it's unlikely for these holders to sell when the stock goes up.
Small correction here— Blackrock’s position is largely due to passive investments.
 
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There’s two way communication between the car and the charger, so presumably they charge by the amount of charge actually added to the battery. This would avoid, for example, charging for losses within the charger(heat through the cables, any issues with the terminals, etc.)
I just assumed they'd charge for all power coming from the SC.
 
A lot less covering than I thought.

Guessing another 1.5 billion fron dec 31 to now. We have a long way to go before things get to normal.

We can only guess how much covering happened in the first 7 trading days of the year, thanks to opaque market disclosures. Some of the reported short position next release will be newly placed bets that Tesla's Q4 results couldn't be very good (since they must have massaged the books to get such good results in Q3 :rolleyes:).

But my guess is we will see another wave of short-covering next week before Q4 financials are announced as well as a flood of new positions of long-term investors who want in before Q4 results. That should take us over $500 easily. I'm hoping Q4 results and forward guidance will be positive enough to hold the $500's with Musk's newfound credibility. The lack of demand thesis has been blown out of the water - people are chomping at the bit to get their hands on one of these amazing machines that are cheap to fuel and as maintenance-free as they come while providing an unmatched driving experience and having zero tailpipe emissions.

From there, the new trading range will depend upon Tesla's execution releasing Model Y, manufacturing existing models and turning G4 into a functioning factory with possible upside due to energy storage and maybe solar which is not really being counted yet in any significant fashion. I hate to say this but I'm not very bullish on solar tiles in 2020. I hope they prove me wrong. Battery developments/announcements could be a positive catalyst.

Congrats to all longs for a great 2019 (I bet last June you didn't think you would be hearing that!) and a strong start to 2020.:)
 
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Small correction here— Blackrock’s position is largely due to passive investments.

That's true, Blackrock has its own proprietary index. I guess TSLA is on that index. On the other hand, I listened to Blackrock's President and their chief strategist, seems to me both of them understand and really like Tesla. I guess both the passive portion and the active portion will not be sold.
 
I believe it’s actually a reference to The Witcher.

It definitely is, as confirmed by his tweets at the same time as the name change. See my post this am with the context.

I just assumed they'd charge for all power coming from the SC.

This is what they are doing now. What they were doing was charging for the net added to the battery.
 
This is what they are doing now. What they were doing was charging for the net added to the battery.

Caveat: they still may not be doing exactly this. That form says they’ll also charge for AC/etc usage when charging, but there are also charging losses both inside the charger and the car that don’t go towards anything user-facing and could still not be included.