Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

It's a bit of a stretch to even say that he missed the timelines. We are still in the ball park.

We are talking over the years.

 

[EVMeister]

Yes. It was actually on Christmas Eve and was neutralised during the trading day. He's a true clown. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Care to explain why you disagreed with this @JustSaying? Are you an AJ fan? Are you AJ himself? Because aside from calling him a clown (my opinion, shared by many) the post was factually correct.

 

[Skryll]

The generator requires you to pay constantly for fuel, forever, to generate electricity - while the Tesla system requires zero extra cost to generate electricity (and usually lets you sell excess generation to the gird).

Also, how many people require 2 powerwalls? Is that a common need?

Maybe I should have been clear about my use case: 10kW grid tied solar with about 10 power outages per year. I do not need the generator to cover night time regular use. The two powerwalls were what it took to not isolate critical circuits and instead be able to turn on/off AC to adjust to momentary needs.

The generator only runs in power outages, 10 times a year max, and I would run extension cords to critical pieces like the fridge. This is not comparable in terms of comfort/utility but the point is, a typical powerwall install in my area costs still a lot more than a typical backup power generator.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, when your TSLA reaches 2.5M, you sell and buy again, and then you’re tax exempt .

My core shares are privately purchased, which I do believe attracts zero capital-gains.

Easy way around this is to give a director loan to yourself and buy some shares in your personal account. Then when the SP has gone up, sell a smaller amount of shares to recuperate the loans from the company, pay the money back, keep the free shares.

 

[steak&chicken]

So Adam Jonas' says his price target of $360 is based on the auto business worth $332 and the autonomy business worth $28.

He values:

Energy business: $0
Solar business: $0
Tesla brand: $0
In-vehicle entertainment and services: $0
Licensing battery technology: $0
Licensing autonomous technology: $0
Tesla Insurance: $0
New future businesses: $0

Adam Jonas is stupid, dishonest, or both. Look at the sales unit forecast for his financial model. It's laughable. He had Tesla making and selling 1.7 million cars in 2030 and just raised it to 2 million cars in this new report. We already know he's going to be crazy wrong by huge margin.

I read some of his forecasts he had made I think in 2016 or so about how many cars Tesla would sell in 2022 or something like that. He was so low and wrong then too. I think Tesla hit that mark in 2019! The guy is absolute clown but hey, I guess that's why he gets paid the big bucks at Morgan Stanley with his $10 to $500 possible value for Tesla. They could pay me fraction of his salary and I can tell them the same thing. What a sellout.

 

[dc_h]

I noticed an irony of the short market for Tesla. The more Tesla goes down, the more emboldened and bellicose the shorts become. The more Tesla goes up, the more enticing it becomes for new shorts to enter the market. Perhaps when Tesla is on some steady growth and stock price trend (right before end of times), the temptation to short will fade away.

from CNBC—>nothing breeds contempt like success!

Hedge funds are betting big Apple and Tesla will collapse
Apple and Tesla may be market darlings, but hedge funds are betting big they'll collapse

 

[StealthP3D]

Buying back stock will reduce the market cap.

In theory, buying back stock should not impact the market cap up or down. There will be fewer shares and each share will be for a larger percentage of the company. All else being equal, the share price should theoretically raise by an equivalent percentage because all the metrics used to value each share are always relative to the percentage of the whole that each share represents (EPS, etc.). Share price should theoretically rise while the market cap stays the same.

 

[NicoV]

Huh? That link doesn't provide individual site prices, just an average per country per type of fee... In fact it tells you to look in your car for details:

I don’t think there are a lot of European countries that don’t allow per kWh pricing. So the prices in that drop down would apply for most sites. It certainly corresponds to what I have seen on my BE supercharging bills.

 

[Tslynk67]

Care to explain why you disagreed with this, "JustSaying"? Are you an AJ fan? Are you AJ himself? Because aside from calling him a clown (my opinion, shared by many) the post was factually correct.

You're asking yourself why you disagree??

 

[Tim S]

Care to explain why you disagreed with this, "JustSaying"? Are you an AJ fan? Are you AJ himself? Because aside from calling him a clown (my opinion, shared by many) the post was factually correct.

Maybe @JustSaying is an actual clown? You are giving clowns a bad name.

 

[LJS22]

I noticed an irony of the short market for Tesla. The more Tesla goes down, the more emboldened and bellicose the shorts become. The more Tesla goes up, the more enticing it becomes for new shorts to enter the market. Perhaps when Tesla is on some steady growth and stock price trend (right before end of times), the temptation to short will fade away.

from CNBC—>nothing breeds contempt like success!

Hedge funds are betting big Apple and Tesla will collapse
Apple and Tesla may be market darlings, but hedge funds are betting big they'll collapse

They are betting on a full market collapse, more trouble with China. Basically anything that is out of the control of the companies themselves.
Just idiots making dangerous bets

 

[EVMeister]

You're asking yourself why you disagree??

Haha. No, I haven't gone insane. I was quoting the post of mine which the member "JustSaying" disagreed with. And was wondering what he disagreed with. Not that it really matters, just curious.

 

[MP3Mike]

I don’t think there are a lot of European countries that don’t allow per kWh pricing. So the prices in that drop down would apply for most sites. It certainly corresponds to what I have seen on my BE supercharging bills.

Maybe things are different in Europe, but in the US every site you go to could be a different price even though they are in the same state, and billed by kWh, and just ~100 miles away from each other. The web site only shows a single price for the entire country, but prices vary regionally a lot. (Some people think that V3 sites are priced slightly higher than V2 sites, but that isn't the only factor.)

 

[Tslynk67]

Adam Jonas is stupid, dishonest, or both. Look at the sales unit forecast for his financial model. It's laughable. He had Tesla making and selling 1.7 million cars in 2030 and just raised it to 2 million cars in this new report. We already know he's going to be crazy wrong by huge margin.

I read some of his forecasts he had made I think in 2016 or so about how many cars Tesla would sell in 2022 or something like that. He was so low and wrong then too. I think Tesla hit that mark in 2019! The guy is absolute clown but hey, I guess that's why he gets paid the big bucks at Morgan Stanley with his $10 to $500 possible value for Tesla. They could pay me fraction of his salary and I can tell them the same thing. What a sellout.

I don't think he's an idiot, he's doing what he's asked to do, which is manipulate the share price. And whether we like or not, what he writes - however ridiculous it is - does shift the stock, usually down, at least for a few hours or so.

As said by several today, the whole market is rigged in Wall Street's favour. Shame their's no oversight of US markets by some kind of government agency, because there's a lot of low-hanging fruit they could pick here - it's obvious to us, for a regulator with access to the data it would be a simple matter to prove it.

 

[M3Rider]

Supercharger network
Home storage
GRID SCALE STORAGE, WHICH EVERYONE ALWAYS FORGETS


(Sorry, it amazes me how bulls consistently forget this incredibly massive growth market. The world is going to spend 50 trillion dollars over the next 15 years on new generation/grid infrastructure. Tesla is inserting itself solidly into the middle of this.)

Why SC network? It doesn't bring profit, designed to operate at-cost.

 

[jerry33]

The generator requires you to pay constantly for fuel, forever, to generate electricity - while the Tesla system requires zero extra cost to generate electricity (and usually lets you sell excess generation to the gird).

Also, how many people require 2 powerwalls? Is that a common need?

I would have thought two was a minimum for an average modest house with gas cars. Need a few more if you drive Teslas.

 

[gene]

Two powerwalls with panel upgrade: $20,000.

vs

Costco gas generator $400 to $700.

Solar panels and inverters the same 10kW for $25k.

I know its not the same convenience, but the cost difference is still immense, even if you go more luxurous with a $4k generac generator system.

Personally I don't want to invest into anything fossil fuel powered going forward despite initial price, and so do not have a generator nor the powerwalls at this point.

Only reason why I didnt do the powerwall upgrade to my 10kW system last year was because the stock price was lagging by a few years, if the recent catchup would have happened 2018/2019 as I had anticipated I would have had more cash to route to tesla for their awesome products.

@Skryll. My case, in California just like you. Two Powerwalls $21,000 from Swell Engery. ITC 30% credit was $6300. SGIP credit $8400, net cost was $6,300. If you are not familiar with SGIB, check it out!

 

[Fredneck]

In theory, buying back stock should not impact the market cap up or down. There will be fewer shares and each share will be for a larger percentage of the company. All else being equal, the share price should theoretically raise by an equivalent amount because all the metrics used to value each share are always relative to the percentage of the whole that each share represents (EPS, etc.). Share price should theoretically rise while the market cap stays the same.

Yeah, I guess I'm not looking at it the right way. You're right.

 

[Skryll]

@Skryll. My case, in California just like you. Two Powerwalls $21,000 from Swell Engery. ITC 30% credit was $6300. SGIP credit $8400, net cost was $6,300. If you are not familiar with SGIB, check it out!

PG&E northern california, tesla as installer already went through most of the SGIP tier 2018/2019 when I last checked. But good point, if you can get that, thats a steal.

UPDATE: Just checked and it looks that maybe SGIP of $6750 plus ITC of $5200 may make this project a whole lot more feasible. If I can get this for less than $10k because of that, I'll do it.

 

[madodel]

On CNBC a few minutes ago, the talking dipstick seemed genuinely perturbed that TSLA didn't lose more today. Only down -5.17.