Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ameliorate]

Bizarre that he went 100% cash in the course of one day, with such a long time horizon, with so many potential positive catalysts in front of us. Any swift movement upward (which is easily possible) would give him serious FOMO.

I don't get it.

The chart looks a little spooky if you compare to previous highs of 380. I would be more spooked if the yearly 5 day MA crossed under the 10 MA (which are both still pointing straight up )

Couple things I'm considering - The volume of shares traded over 490 is Way higher than anything near the previous tops of 380, I'm betting a lot of those new holders are in for the long haul.
The FUD isn't generating nearly the same response as it did in earlier years (see 8% + daily drops)
We know the stock is likely to be held back for OPEX
This current run has seen a few lulls under the 10 day MA on the yearly chart only to have a little breather and keep on moving up. I doubt we even dip under it this time.
A little breather is perfectly acceptable or even encouraged in my mind.

 

[ZeApelido]

What the heck is this paper screen in the Cybertruck Munro is talking about?!

 

[TNEVol]

For years he's made ridiculously inaccurate over the top bullish posts about short term moves in the stock price. Some people thought he actually knew something and lost money because of it.

True and he actually attracted sort of a cult following that caused some of the more cautious bulls with more experience to avoid posting here. And this is not the first time that sort of thing happened. Was it Julian Cox whose wild predictions led to jesselivenomore's absence from this thread.

 

[Cherry Wine]

He said is based on weekly chart. Of course, many here say it works until it doesn't etc.

And lately, Friday is a usually a push down by MMs and Monday it goes the other way...plus we're expecting the ER announcement anytime.

I prob wouldn't sell (calls) and not touching shares, but just curious what can be seen from this TSLA - Tesla Inc.

I'm not a chart expert, but I'm assuming he is spooked by the long upper stick for this week's candle showing that the price was successfully pushed down from a high and indicates slowing buying pressure. The disagreement I have with those who interpret charts as gospel is the view that charts can predict the stock price when I think they are more a reflection of events taking place around the stock / company.

I am not concerned with the weekly chart for a couple of reasons:

1. This rally was not going to go straight up forever, and my time horizon is sufficiently long that I don't really care all that much about short-term price movements. I have open put credit spreads expiring next week, but I will roll those continuously if they end up ITM. In fact, I would be more concerned if there were no pause / correction, as those help us to establish levels of support and give new buyers confidence that the floor isn't going to fall out from beneath them at the slightest sign of weakness, thereby sending everyone screaming for the door.
2. I think a slowing in momentum could also be predicated on a drop in volume / buying pressure as folks have now largely positioned themselves in preparation for Q4 earnings announcement could happen any day (this goes back to my thinking that the chart is a reflection of events rather than a predictor). The stock could exhibit weakness going into the call as nervous longs take some or all of their profits off the table. This could in fact be more of a good thing than not, as a better than expected earnings call and/or guidance could bring those folks back in, creating buying pressure and driving up the price post earnings. Basically, the less bullish price action is before earnings, the lower the bar is for bullish price action after earnings. At least that's my take.

Again, just my opinion.

 

[TNEVol]

Wow. I think I've hit the stalk twice in seven years. And I've never had it actually engage.

Most of the time I am slowing down for the turn using regen and my cruise is always on so the effect is to stop the slowdown to make the car return to previous speed. Weird I know but it doesn't know I intend to turn.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

True and he actually attracted sort of a cult following that caused some of the more cautious bulls with more experience to avoid posting here.

DaveT Interviews TrendTrader007 LIVE!!1!
He did have help...
On the other hand, TT literally coined the phrase "Not An Advice" so there's that

The disagreement I have with those who interpret charts as gospel is the view that charts can predict the stock price when I think they are more a reflection of events taking place around the stock / company.

It is ...possible... to drive a car by looking in the rear view mirror at where you've just been. But you have to know the road already, really really really well. And check often for swans etc. crossing the road in front of you. I wouldn't advice it to most.

 

[dww12]

There was another reason for unplanned acceleration in the early MS. The steering wheel had the cruise lever on the left above the turn signal lever. When making a right hand turn I occasionally pulled up on the cruise lever which caused the car to accelerate even though I was not touching the accelerator. This still happens to me when i have driven the M3 a lot and then drive my old S. However, it is still driver error. I think this only applies to the early S with the wheel from Mercedes. Those who have been around awhile have seen these sudden acceleration claims many times as excuses for wrecks. Nothing new here.

Ha, that happened to me when I had a MS loaner. I was like “hmm it has a silent signal, and why does it seem like I an accelerating when I change lanes to the right.” Then I discovered there were two stalks on the left.

 

[Cherry Wine]

??? There's only one way to incur substantial capital gains tax...

...which is to say, "make a lot of money"

True, but I'm thinking that if one sells a position, incurs short term capital gains tax, and then shortly thereafter buys back in for FOMO, one has unnecessarily left a lot of money on the table (when they could have just held on for LT capital gains).

 

[Todd Burch]

What the heck is this paper screen in the Cybertruck Munro is talking about?!

LOL he was confused. The paper is referring to the surface of the dashboard in the prototype, and Munro thought the display had some sort of paper-based OLED display. I think it was "OK, Boomer" confusion.

 

[Vad42]

He said is based on weekly chart. Of course, many here say it works until it doesn't etc.

And lately, Friday is a usually a push down by MMs and Monday it goes the other way...plus we're expecting the ER announcement anytime.

I prob wouldn't sell (calls) and not touching shares, but just curious what can be seen from this TSLA - Tesla Inc.

It’s not going to go up this Monday.

I’ve been wondering myself what to do with my Jan21 400 calls. They now up almost 300%. My current plan was to sell them in April when the become Long-term gains, but I’m getting a little nervous...

not touching my shares.

 

[dha]

It’s not going to go up this Monday.

I’ve been wondering myself what to do with my Jan21 400 calls. They now up almost 300%. My current plan was to sell them in April when the become Long-term gains, but I’m getting a little nervous...

not touching my shares.

Selling a spread is one way to reduce your exposure while hanging on to your options. Especially with IV this crazy high.

 

[avoigt]

Weak performance today ---- from the shorts.

Maybe they do better in the last hour but seriously is this all what they have?

Tuesday may be another Monday run.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Benzinga - 1.5 hours ago: Tesla Option Alert: Jun 19 $700 Calls Sweep (2) near the Ask: 500 @ $16.7 vs 7123 OI; Earnings 1/29 After Close [est] Ref=$509.14

The total cost of this options trade would have been $835,000. Trading at the ask price suggests that the call buyer was more anxious than the writer/seller. It also implies that the buyer expects the TSLA share price to be at least $716.70 by 2020 JUN 19.

That's heavy. And there's been 4307 contracts traded at the $700 strike price today alone.

 

[Singuy]

Yup... same thing happens to me at least once a week. I always realize when I hit the stalk, and the car chimes when you do it, but I would be willing to bet a lot of the cases are from this.

I actually think a likely way to unintentional accelerate is Hold being confused with Park. Because Tesla will put the car in P for you if you open the door, one can move their feet to hit the accelerator accidentally before you open the door thinking that the car is in P already even though it's in Hold.

I have not done this but I have consciously avoided the accelerator when stepping out of my car no matter if it's in P or H. But I can see how someone gets into the habit of just letting the Tesla put the car in P, adding an additional level of laziness but one day the feet hit the accelerator before opening the door.

Another way is confusing being stopped with park. With creep (or ICE) you have to actively do something to make sure the car no longer go forward which means you are stepping on the brakes while you hit the P. Without creep, you may just be confused since you are not forced to step on the brake to make the car stop going forward.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm not a chart expert, but I'm assuming he is spooked by the long upper stick for this week's candle showing that the price was successfully pushed down from a high and indicates slowing buying pressure. The disagreement I have with those who interpret charts as gospel is the view that charts can predict the stock price when I think they are more a reflection of events taking place around the stock / company.

I am not concerned with the weekly chart for a couple of reasons:

1. This rally was not going to go straight up forever, and my time horizon is sufficiently long that I don't really care all that much about short-term price movements. I have open put credit spreads expiring next week, but I will roll those continuously if they end up ITM. In fact, I would be more concerned if there were no pause / correction, as those help us to establish levels of support and give new buyers confidence that the floor isn't going to fall out from beneath them at the slightest sign of weakness, thereby sending everyone screaming for the door.
2. I think a slowing in momentum could also be predicated on a drop in volume / buying pressure as folks have now largely positioned themselves in preparation for Q4 earnings announcement could happen any day (this goes back to my thinking that the chart is a reflection of events rather than a predictor). The stock could exhibit weakness going into the call as nervous longs take some or all of their profits off the table. This could in fact be more of a good thing than not, as a better than expected earnings call and/or guidance could bring those folks back in, creating buying pressure and driving up the price post earnings. Basically, the less bullish price action is before earnings, the lower the bar is for bullish price action after earnings. At least that's my take.

Again, just my opinion.

I agree that charts don't predict the future. But they can be used to predict the future with better than 50/50 accuracy by many people.

Rather than stating that charts are a reflection of events taking place around the stock/company, I think it would be more accurate to say charts are a reflection of investor sentiment or expectations at every point in time the chart is being written. While it's true that events affect investor sentiment and expectations, the events are only reflected in the charts through the "eyes" of investors. So the charts records what was going on (in the eyes of investors) at every point at which the market is open. And of course, at open, the chart reflects how investor sentiment has changed overnight.

Because investor behavior in the aggregate is somewhat predictable, the chart can often telegraph what is going to happen next (lacking significant market-moving news). This is one reason I'm bullish in the near-term. Because it takes time for people to catch on and become comfortable with a new perspective. Those of us who pay close attention to everything Tesla are not a good judge what other investors (who don't pay nearly as close attention) are thinking. It takes time for their beliefs about Tesla to change. It's a process. As long as the macros remain strong and there are no negative developments of note, I don't see a lot of chance that TSLA doesn't break through to new highs within the next month.

I'm also bullish in the mid-far term but that requires Tesla to execute well. I'm bullish because I believe they have demonstrated superior performance when it comes to executing. There will always be hiccups and f*ckups but I'm impressed with how few of them there are considering the size and scope of the tasks they have already executed on.

 

[Mokuzai]

Updated my racing bar chart with the 2019 US plug-in estimates. Now with music and car pictures that change based on the current leader.

Mase Goslin on Twitter

 

[M3Rider]

I somehow enjoyed this article from fudster mitchell(who's using tslaq block list)
https://www.latimes.com/business/st...es-fizzle?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

He's trying to help out oems to become successful ev makers and misinform on Tesla some, but overall reads as a great entertainment.

Some pearls:

- Title, wow:
Car buyers shun electric vehicles not named Tesla. Are carmakers driving off a cliff?

- Troubling, because while carmakers finally turned serious about electric vehicles, going all in on new electric versions of best-selling SUVs, pickups and muscle cars — consumers so far aren’t playing along.

- The financial damage from EV overreach could be severe.....automakers face a “profit desert” for several years — or longer, if customers don’t come around.

- Some analysts think buyers don’t necessarily want an electric car when they buy a Tesla — they primarily want a Tesla, which has replaced the latest iPhone as the coolest accoutrement in Silicon Valley

- Dealer enthusiasm, or the lack of it, continues to be an issue

- EVs are money-losers for all major automakers, including Tesla

 

[Singuy]

Some analysts think buyers don’t necessarily want an electric car when they buy a Tesla — they primarily want a Tesla, which has replaced the latest iPhone as the coolest accoutrement in Silicon Valley

If people are buying Teslas even when they don't want an EV then that's a freaken problem isn't it for other car manufactures? So good, we can all agree that Tesla's addressable market is ALL cars and not just EV loving tree huggers right?

 

[printf42]

Finally sold last of my Jan-17 calls and off margins.
Still have some deep ITM leaps(and some short term lottery tickets) though.
Wake me up after Q1?

 

[LJS22]

LOL he was confused. The paper is referring to the surface of the dashboard in the prototype, and Munro thought the display had some sort of paper-based OLED display. I think it was "OK, Boomer" confusion.

I thought he was speaking to a design he had been introduced to earlier and had seen in person of a foldable screen. Then for some reason he connected that device he had seen before and what Tesla uses. So yea confusion, but I guess somewhere he had seen a concept for a paper like screen.