Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustMe]

Brief video greeting from Tesla China President. It has an interior shot of what looks to be a dozen or more cars undergoing final inspection.

RayTesla️ on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

And surprise! Now that he is "famous" his twitter account is locked down: Brian Sparks (@btsparks) | Twitter

Yep, looks like he's using the $TSLAQ blocklist.

This is surely fraud by any definition - maybe SEC should be pinged with some complaints?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can anyone translate this? They’re claiming to have third row photos from Model Y:

https://news-coffee.com/2020/01/18/tesla-model-y

Google translate

 

[Artful Dodger]

With earnings on January 29th, does anyone else expect Model Y reveal at that time? If they have been building model Y, where are they and how are they shipping them? Could they store 5000 or 10,000 cars and have them ready for delivery? I haven’t seen any Fremont lot pictures lately and they could use covered trucks if they are trying to have cars ready in February.

Crazy?

Of course, we've already HAD the Model Y reveal last Spring. And of course, we can expect some announcement or update on the Model Y rollout on the Jan 29 CC. There are NOT that many cars ready for delivery, the shorty air force would be all over that. They had to send the bty packs to Shanghai, remember? Magical thinking doesn't replace data and thorough analysis. Covered trucks? 400 - 800 SPARE INVISBIBLE Trucks? Alrighty then...

 

[JBRR]

The afterhours drop is likely to be bunch of jan 17 calls getting assigned and the shares used for hedging getting sold at the same time.

 

[Tslynk67]

Medium? Hell, I couldn't get a medium on with a shoe horn. Let me know when the 2XLs are in stock!

Dan

US medium = EU large, I kid you not

 

[Pezpunk]

With earnings on January 29th, does anyone else expect Model Y reveal at that time? If they have been building model Y, where are they and how are they shipping them? Could they store 5000 or 10,000 cars and have them ready for delivery? I haven’t seen any Fremont lot pictures lately and they could use covered trucks if they are trying to have cars ready in February.

Crazy?

yes, crazy.

Stop it.

Stop making up wildly aggressive literally impossible timelines above and beyond Tesla’s own wildly aggressive nearly impossible timelines. You’re just setting up Tesla to “fail” at things they never intended to do, and making things easier for Tesla’s enemies.

 

[Jack6591]

having him as mayor in NYC for 12 years ... he would do it w/o a doubt ... and succeed ... no non-sense
I doubt he would get elected but it would be great for TSLA longs if he did

Michael Bloomberg fought the good fight against the coal industry. I’ve heard those that argue a technological solution to climate change over political. In my mind, we fight with technology, we fight politically, and we fight in the courts.

Michael Bloomberg has earned my vote based on his climate change accomplishments.

 

[Fact Checking]

The afterhours drop is likely to be bunch of jan 17 calls getting assigned and the shares used for hedging getting sold at the same time.

So this would be inexperienced options traders not closing deep in the money calls and getting exercised, without having enough cash and margin to exercise, right?

In that case they face an instant margin call, and their (rather unhappy) broker would attempt to reduce the overnight and weekend holding risks of the shares received. Since they are only getting the shares on Saturday, but know the excercises on Friday 5:30 PM already, they'd want to go short a matching number of TSLA shares late Friday.

Those call option holders would then get the cash from the after hours fire sale, with poor execution.

@Curt Renz, @ggr, is this the likely procedure in this case?

Another possibility is for brokers to wait until the next trading day (Tuesday next week) to liquidate the margin called account - but then they'd be carrying the stock over the weekend - which is an extra risk for them.

An interesting scenario is if Buffett announces a stake in Tesla over the weekend and the TSLA price gaps to $1,000 on Tuesday, the call option holder would miss out on those gains with a Friday liquidation. Can the broker legally liquidate on Friday already, which is technically before the options contracts transfer the shares?

 

[Ellec]

So this would be inexperienced options traders not closing deep in the money calls and getting exercised, without having enough cash and margin to exercise, right?

In that case they face an instant margin call, and their (rather unhappy) broker would attempt to reduce the overnight and weekend holding risks of the shares received. Since they are only getting the shares on Saturday, but know the excercises on Friday 5:30 PM already, they'd want to go short a matching number of TSLA shares late Friday.

Those call option holders would then get the cash from the after hours fire sale, with poor execution.

@Curt Renz, @ggr, is this the likely procedure in this case?

Another possibility is for brokers to wait until the next trading day (Tuesday next week) to liquidate the margin called account - but then they'd be carrying the stock over the weekend - which is an extra risk for them.

An interesting scenario is if Buffett announces a stake in Tesla over the weekend and the TSLA price gaps to $1,000 on Tuesday, the call option holder would miss out on those gains with a Friday liquidation. Can the broker legally liquidate on Friday already, which is technically before the options contracts transfer the shares?

Where did you hear about the Buffett rumour?

 

[JBRR]

So this would be inexperienced options traders not closing deep in the money calls and getting exercised, without having enough cash and margin to exercise, right?

In that case they face an instant margin call, and their (rather unhappy) broker would attempt to reduce the overnight and weekend holding risks of the shares received. Since they are only getting the shares on Saturday, but know the excercises on Friday 5:30 PM already, they'd want to go short a matching number of TSLA shares late Friday.

Those call option holders would then get the cash from the after hours fire sale, with poor execution.

@Curt Renz, @ggr, is this the likely procedure in this case?

Another possibility is for brokers to wait until the next trading day (Tuesday next week) to liquidate the margin called account - but then they'd be carrying the stock over the weekend - which is an extra risk for them.

An interesting scenario is if Buffett announces a stake in Tesla over the weekend and the TSLA price gaps to $1,000 on Tuesday, the call option holder would miss out on those gains with a Friday liquidation. Can the broker legally liquidate on Friday already, which is technically before the options contracts transfer the shares?

Letting them expire seems like the best option when the seller have the calls covered?

Example:
I sold 10 calls thursday with expiry friday at strike 500 and 505. Bought ~500 shares to make the position delta neutral (SP was 500 at the time).
I didn't adjust the position friday so calls expired slightly ITM and got assigned resulting in 1000 of my shares being sold at 500 and 505 to the call owners. Would this transaction route directly through the broker or does it show up in the order book as 1000 shares traded at 500 and 505?

 

[Chickenlittle]

So this would be inexperienced options traders not closing deep in the money calls and getting exercised, without having enough cash and margin to exercise, right?

In that case they face an instant margin call, and their (rather unhappy) broker would attempt to reduce the overnight and weekend holding risks of the shares received. Since they are only getting the shares on Saturday, but know the excercises on Friday 5:30 PM already, they'd want to go short a matching number of TSLA shares late Friday.

Those call option holders would then get the cash from the after hours fire sale, with poor execution.

@Curt Renz, @ggr, is this the likely procedure in this case?

Another possibility is for brokers to wait until the next trading day (Tuesday next week) to liquidate the margin called account - but then they'd be carrying the stock over the weekend - which is an extra risk for them.

An interesting scenario is if Buffett announces a stake in Tesla over the weekend and the TSLA price gaps to $1,000 on Tuesday, the call option holder would miss out on those gains with a Friday liquidation. Can the broker legally liquidate on Friday already, which is technically before the options contracts transfer the shares?

Under your scenario of calls expiring without sufficient cash/margin to buy the shares fidelity exercise calls and sells shares. The holder gets the cash valus

 

[jerry33]

“with great power comes great responsibility”
-Yoda.

Peter Parker should sue Yoda for copyright violation.

 

[ZeApelido]

Can anyone translate this? They’re claiming to have third row photos from Model Y:

https://news-coffee.com/2020/01/18/tesla-model-y

I, too, have a taken a stealth photo of the Model Y 3rd row:

 

[jerry33]

This is not unintended acceleration. This happened plenty of times in my Chevy Volt. It may FEEL like acceleration, but is actually just 0 braking. When going over a bump in my Volt, the car would no longer be able to regen brake, which felt like the car lunging forward since it's going from negative acceleration to 0 acceleration.

When the car has no wheels on the ground, the vehicle can no longer regen brake.


Note that going from a negative acceleration to no acceleration feels the same as going from no acceleration to positive acceleration if the magnitude of change is the same.

Correct. I've never felt this ever in the S, but it happened in the Prius every time you braked and also went over a pavement crack or expansion joint.

 

[Boomer19]

So this would be inexperienced options traders not closing deep in the money calls and getting exercised, without having enough cash and margin to exercise, right?

In that case they face an instant margin call, and their (rather unhappy) broker would attempt to reduce the overnight and weekend holding risks of the shares received. Since they are only getting the shares on Saturday, but know the excercises on Friday 5:30 PM already, they'd want to go short a matching number of TSLA shares late Friday.

Those call option holders would then get the cash from the after hours fire sale, with poor execution.

@Curt Renz, @ggr, is this the likely procedure in this case?

Another possibility is for brokers to wait until the next trading day (Tuesday next week) to liquidate the margin called account - but then they'd be carrying the stock over the weekend - which is an extra risk for them.

An interesting scenario is if Buffett announces a stake in Tesla over the weekend and the TSLA price gaps to $1,000 on Tuesday, the call option holder would miss out on those gains with a Friday liquidation. Can the broker legally liquidate on Friday already, which is technically before the options contracts transfer the shares?

OCC will auto-ex any ITM options (.01 or more) on expiration. so the trade balance starts on expiration, the s/d obv +2 days

therefore broker can start liquidating a client on t/d to recapture the excess margin applied from the option EnA

in theory

does it happen that way?
the avg broker may not react until the next business day. i suppose some may auto-liquidate AH or in dark pools. depends on what the broker agreement says..

 

[Boomer19]

Letting them expire seems like the best option when the seller have the calls covered?

Example:
I sold 10 calls thursday with expiry friday at strike 500 and 505. Bought ~500 shares to make the position delta neutral (SP was 500 at the time).
I didn't adjust the position friday so calls expired slightly ITM and got assigned resulting in 1000 of my shares being sold at 500 and 505 to the call owners. Would this transaction route directly through the broker or does it show up in the order book as 1000 shares traded at 500 and 505?

what you are talking about are EnA ‘book trades’ whereas what @Fact Checking is talking about are exchange trades resulting from EnA activity that drove a customer into margin deficit by letting ITM options expire without enough equity/buying power to cover the cost of EnA

btw, who is Fact Czeching? someone doing a parody account on you??

 

[Zero CO2]

we need an “ironic” button

I don't get it

 

[The Accountant]

Over on Twitter Troy has noticed that new Model 3 orders in China have delivery dates shifted to Q2,
Troy Teslike on Twitter

He is guessing/estimating 8k - 13k MIC Model 3 (SR) deliveries in Q1.

What do people here think of that range?

BTW, why does Tesla China use its own separate domain, tesla.cn ? - this throws off statistics on the tesla.com domain.

I found it interesting that Troy is estimating 7.7k US produced vehicles sold in China in Q1 (2.4k S/X & 5.3k M3).
His total Fremont/GF3 China sales range is 15.7k - 20.7k units. That's more than I was expecting.

 

[Boomer19]

I don't get it

the list of bloomberg journalists hit pieces on tesla vs mike bloomberg being good for tesla