Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Worse == greater loss for MMs. Profit depends greatly on purchase price of Call. If these $600s were bought on the cheap, they be like 20x at sales times. Maybe @Lycanthrope can give a concrete example, I think he bought some 600s.

Cheers!

2 x Feb 7 2020 $650's, which I bought last week for $9.5 and are $25.50 up right now.

5 x Jan 15 2021 $650's from September for $1, currently $88.50

5 x Jan 15 2021's I sold a couple of weeks ago at $36, bad move, but still cash in the account and 3500% gain

Have toyed with offloading the options, on the basis that I expect some MM shenanigans tomorrow, but I'm also thinking there's going to be a lot of forced purchases too, so might hold onto them. For earnings I fear a buy the rumours, sell the news, so might get rid of them before then anyway, at least the Feb ones.

 

[UrsS]

This is not political, it has to do with reality.
A word of caution: By now we should have learned that whatever Trump says has absolutely no meaning. He can utter the exact opposite within an hour or less. He does not have any knowledge (of anything) and whatever he says and does is only for his personal agrandissement. So basing any investment on his utterances would be rather foolish.

 

[dw4ngg]

It took less than hour for each of the 550, 560, 570 and 580 ranges to be broken. I don't understand why 590 is taking so long. We back on Elon time or what?

 

[Mike Smith]

You're the dog who caught the car.



Personally, I will continue to build a small hedge into Q4 ER, but I really want to hear what they have to say before I do any trimming. Elon has already stated via Twitter that he plans to disclose Tesla's plans for the next several years on the call. Guidance could be very positive, which will be just as important, if not more, than Q4 financials.

I mean, what if he talks about shipping Model Y Q1? What if he talks about Q1 production being already sold out?!?! What if he talks about new gigafactories, new production improvements, new efficiencies, hints at battery developments, FSD progress? Full year 2020 profitability? FCA compliance pool payments? Cybertruck reservations?

There is so much potential positive guidance out there that shorts may be screaming for the exits come January 30th. The upside is so big that I don't want to cap it with anything but long puts.

Don't forget, he said he'll be talking about plans as far out as 2023/24 on the earnings call in this cryptic email response 3 weeks ago.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[woodisgood]

So another 7-8% tomorrow?

 

[kbM3]

Most important advice:

You aren’t truly a Tesla millionaire until you actually sell the stock (or whatever instrument you used) and take your profits.

(Rode my Netscape investment all the way from IPO @~$30/share through its peak @~$190/share - and all the way to the smoking hole in the ground at the end).

Disagree:

Depending how you define it, You are a Tesla millionaire IF
A) You currently have >= $1M worth in Tesla investments.
OR
B) You’ve made >= $1M by investing in Tesla

NOT
C) You sell $1M of Tesla Investments today to pay tax and keep in cash, spend, or invest the rest of it somewhere else.

Option C Is a false idea people get that earnings don’t count until somehow you magically “lock in” that money presumably putting it somewhere safe. That “paper earnings or losses” don’t count until you sell. I had a friend who was convinced he could never lose money in the stock market, because his plan was to never sell a stock with a loss.

Your mistake with Netscape was not your failure to lock in some gains while you had them. Your mistake was in not re-evaluating Netscape (the company) based on the competitive landscape changing with Microsoft and Internet Explorer.

It’s all about the company. The only good reasons to sell TSLA are:
1) If you have a need for the cash.
2) You have an investment opportunity that has a probability of a greater return than Tesla
3) You feel that you are too highly invested in TSLA because it’s just a single company.
4) Related to #3, You’re maintaining a portfolio balance, following the plan and want to keep TSLA sized to a given percentage of your overall portfolio.

NOT 5) You want to “lock in” gains.

 

[kengchang]

So subscribed to Ihors's app and take a look, short interest is about the same level as before.

 

[glen thomson]

Hey can anyone see tesla charts twitter account I cant, wondering if he has given up?

 

[Runarbt]

So subscribed to Ihors's app and take a look, short interest is about the same level as before.

In number of stock shorted, or value of short positions?

 

[Swampgator]

This mission statement of Tesla: Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
Spending wads of money on the military industry/war machine to protect oil, promoting coal, and actively removing legislation supporting clean energy-- directly or indirectly has been the modus operandi of the current administration.

While this may be a political post, the mission statement of tesla is diametrically opposed to the current political climate at the white house.

Finally (one more political dig) we spend our taxes and our blood -- of our loved ones protecting and defending oil-- almost a blood and monetary subsidy for oil and ICE, and why is a subsidy to get auto manufacturers to go EV so bad? That is ok, traditional ICE manufacturers have to pivot shift if they want to sell in China.

Why do you assume conservatives want to spend money defending oil? I don't. And this has been the modus operandi of all past administrations going back 75 + years. I don't like it, but somehow the Saudis must have blackmail on EVERYONE.

 

[Swampgator]

They also have lots of room to expand and even hold cars for delivery.

Great point. Fremont is at it's limit just loading vehicles for delivery. I have no idea how they handle the addition of Model Y.

 

[ammulder]

In fairness, I quit drinking the electric kool-aid from ICE manufacturer's a couple of years ago. I would love to see an electric F150 succeed but I'm not willing to assume it will be on time or worth buying. I also have serious doubts about the all EV truck start-ups but keeping an open mind. But here's what rules: I'll believe it when I can buy it.

Agreed. I have high hopes for the Mach E, ID.4, Rivian, and etc. High hopes... but low expectations.

If none of those deliver, then our entire automotive future really DOES rest on Tesla.

That would be sad... but not especially surprising.

 

[woof]

I remember Jenny Agutter getting her kit off, but not much else...

Don't forget Farrah Fawcett.

 

[Runarbt]

Hey can anyone see tesla charts twitter account I cant, wondering if he has given up?

Nope, he is still very active. Focus on tiny stuff, no more chart comparisons TSLA vs. Enron.. weird.

 

[kengchang]

In number of stock shorted, or value of short positions?

26M+ shares still shorted according to the site

PS: Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[winfield100]

@SageBrush

I like to remind people of the GM Volt. Back in the day GM asked the internet for a show of hands if they would like GM to make the Volt. History says (I am skeptical) that due to the very positive response GM brought the car to market. GM predicted up to 200k sales a year in short order, I presume based in part on the internet interest.
!

OT
The volt had advertised 16kWh battery, but you could only use 10.1kW
When it went on “sale” there were premiums of up to $20,000 for the privilege of 30-35 miles electric
The front seats were uncomfortable at best (83,301 before utter destruction from rear end collision)
No room for back seat passengers legs unless front seats were way forward
High regeneration braking caused me to have 263 false “panic braking events” from merely letting up on accelerator which almost made insurance go UP in a few months due to accelerometers

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Disagree:

Depending how you define it, You are a Tesla millionaire IF
A) You currently have >= $1M worth in Tesla investments.
OR
B) You’ve made >= $1M by investing in Tesla

NOT
C) You sell $1M of Tesla Investments today to pay tax and keep in cash, spend, or invest the rest of it somewhere else.

Option C Is a false idea people get that earnings don’t count until somehow you magically “lock in” that money presumably putting it somewhere safe. That “paper earnings or losses” don’t count until you sell. I had a friend who was convinced he could never lose money in the stock market, because his plan was to never sell a stock with a loss.

Your mistake with Netscape was not your failure to lock in some gains while you had them. Your mistake was in not re-evaluating Netscape (the company) based on the competitive landscape changing with Microsoft and Internet Explorer.

It’s all about the company. The only good reasons to sell TSLA are:
1) If you have a need for the cash.
2) You have an investment opportunity that has a probability of a greater return than Tesla
3) You feel that you are too highly invested in TSLA because it’s just a single company.
4) Related to #3, You’re maintaining a portfolio balance, following the plan and want to keep TSLA sized to a given percentage of your overall portfolio.

NOT 5) You want to “lock in” gains.

Presumably also if, at some point, you feel TSLA exceeds(or matches) the actual worth of the company.

Also, I would note that “locking in gains” isn’t actually necessarily an illogical thing to do. If you made enough on Tesla to retire and live in comfort the rest of your life, and don’t want to worry about trying to make more money anymore, that’s a reasonable stance. The emotional ups and downs of fretting about stock price have some value/cost as well.

 

[DragonWatch]

Apparently Jim gets his technical support from TMC. https://www.thestreet.com/video/why-jim-cramer-says-that-tesla-doesnt-have-a-direct-competitor

I realize I only have a fourth grade education, but this guy clearly was not allowed to sit at the same lunch table in the sixth grade as me. I was in the back forty of the playground breaking the sit-up record of a thousand. Broke the record, JFK bit the bullet, and a week later I was awarded my Eagle rank. Tough year.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Why do you assume conservatives want to spend money defending oil? I don't. And this has been the modus operandi of all past administrations going back 75 + years. I don't like it, but somehow the Saudis must have blackmail on EVERYONE.

A note: you are (probably) not Donald Trump. Nor is Trump equivalent to all conservatives. Hence, the post you’re responding to wasn’t talking about you or conservatives in general.

 

[SageBrush]

Update on my mother who I forced to invest in TSLA 2 years ago and has been yapping about it ever since..........she's had f--- all to say the last few months. What's up with that? Truly Irish people are just weird.

That has to be the funniest post I have read in a while. Even my wife of Polish/Russian descent nodded her head sagely.

Don't worry, she knows that you know that she knows.