Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bear Adam Jonas on Twitter

 

[Cherry Wine]

Bear Adam Jonas on Twitter

I wish it were real lol.

 

[Sudre]

Someone very big must’ve scooped up all the shares these past 3 months. There’s no liquidity. No one selling

Better yet is if a couple of big fish did the buying so they never went over 5% and never had to report it so no one knows until the Shorts can't get shares to cover.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Anyone have a link to the financial call?

Dan

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Ho-hum, another year that Tesla should grow 50% YoY. So boring.

What? Are you saying we're going down the rest of the year? Or maybe you mean 50% MoM.

 

[Buckminster]

Ok, just read through the update letter, very solid report!

• Over $1b in free cash flow, all time record, hit the ball out of the park - not even hyperbulls expected that. Amazon growth model, here we come!
• Big revenue beat with $7.3b - all time record.
• 500k+ deliveries guidance for 2020 is +40% YoY growth - the Tesla growth story continues.
• Model Y sharing assembly capacity with the Model 3 was speculated about, but still caught everyone by surprise. Announcement of Model Y production, photos of the new BIW line with Model Ys already in production and announcement of first deliveries by end of March are obviously bombshell news.
• GAAP profits are lower than expected, but mostly only due to non-cash stock compensation expenses. Cash from operations and gross profits were all very nice.
• All time cash and cash equivalents record of $6.3b pushes out the date of bankwuptcy to ... never.
• A bit higher ZEV revenue - I presume from FCA. Should significantly increase in 2020.
• The "unsustainable" margins from Q3 were sustained in Q4.
• Edit: hat tip to @adesai, combined guided production capacity annual run rate is at 760,000/year - which is way beyond all expectations!

Congratulations Tesla!!

Deserves a re-post.

So need a $151M+ GAAP profit in Q1'2020 for March S&P inclusion, correct?

So I was 90% confident of S&P inclusion pre end June prior to results. I would now drop that to 70% - does that sound about right?

Checked to see if that range increase made it to model 3 order page. It didn't

So what is going on here? MYs delivered in March will be more efficient. You would expect M3s to follow at the same time. Or they reduce the battery sizes to keep MY premium.

 

[kengchang]

Anyone have a link to the financial call?

Dan

ir.tesla.com

 

[elasalle]

its TESLAQILA time

 

[Jayjs20]

Well, this marks 300 dollars since I sold all 59 of my Jan21s calls and started a short straddle. I don't even know what to say or do or think at this point. Not only did I leave over 1 million dollars on the table because I ended up being weak long after all, but I actually lost a ton of money trying to short straddle it. Worst part of this is that I love this company and I want to hop back in and go long again, but I don't know if the parabolic movement will hold.

 

[SMAlset]

Anyone have a link to the financial call?

Dan

Investors Overview | Tesla, Inc.

You’ll need to sign in to hear.

 

[Causalien]

Folks, I just can’t help but think of the boss shorts. (I mean the real “whale” shorts, the biggest of them, those hidden in the murky depths, not these little color fish we see parading on SA or BI, or appearing on teevee. I can just imagine the anger and panic of those losing billions beyond the cameras and the public eye. They have been coddled and protected by the SEC, and have been confident, brash, at times overt and coordinated, and always with impunity. Looks got they have gotten blind-sided by their own arrogance, and confirmation bias. Now some of these whales might just be in too deep! There is a lot of barometric pressure happening where they are, and they have got to be feeling a whole hell of lotta squeeze right now.

With this 4Q report the music stops for these guys, and well, especially with the recent buying on good news and performance, there just aren’t going to be enough chairs floating around to cover their naked asses! The next few days will be interesting. This game is starting to get so VERY expensive for them. Compounding and compounding the losses, how much pressure can they take? The old strategy of cover and short again right away and write off the expense has just been put out on a shelf, just out of reach. Prepare for tantrums!

At a time when it gets harder to maintain the short because their industry is suffering bigly at the same time due to the Corona virus. Oil, transport and car sales.

 

[davecolene0606]

so now gasp profitably is "reasonably assured" going forward so they can push the deferred tax liability to the bottom line?

That conversation went on last week, can anybody comment/add to this?

Fire Away!
(It's the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[SageBrush]

I may have finally caught on to Elon's chair reference thanks to @imherkimer

Musical Chairs

That man can be vindictive and hold a grudge.

 

[UncaNed]

Next time, a pole dance.

No... just no.

 

[Darkfox021]

Anyone have a link to the financial call?

Dan

Tesla, Inc. Q4 2019 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

 

[davecolene0606]

Q1 $156 milion gaap profit brings it to S&P inclusion.

Fire Away!
(It's the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[StealthP3D]

I always thought they would start making Model Y in Fremont. Then they said Gigafactory but now are hedging. I don't know what the ploy is, but I still get the feeling Model is going into production in Q1 or Q2 2020 in Fremont."

Nailed it!

Good job. I recall those of us who predicted the early (stealth) Model Y ramp were on the receiving end of some pretty condescending accusations that we were being unrealistic dreamers. I just do what I always do, call it how I see it.

 

[mutle]

Anyone have a link to the financial call?

Dan

Tesla Q4 2019 Earnings Call (no commentary) (Cleantechnica on YouTube)

 

[mejojo]

No way, that's a legendary meme

Reminds us how quaint 420 was....

 

[ABCTG]

In moments like this I like to think of the young investing firm made up of father and sons at UCLA...who despite seeing Tesla’s on the road everyday said “at 488 it can’t go any higher” so they shorted it with nearly half a mil haha

The Tesla superhighway used to be Sunset Blvd starting from the Pacific Coast Highway, cross over the 405 freeway, run right past UCLA, onto Beverly Hills, and into Hollywood!

Guess they couldn't see the future even tho' it is driving past them every day.