Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

I'm getting nervous now about the virus; the macro hit to the market in general, plus directly at ones with operations in China such as TSLA, AAPL, etc. If this exponentially grows next week, too many will want to go into cash and a holding pattern...

1. It's not growing exponentially. They're finding about the same number of cases every day.

2. If it does grow out of control and can no longer be contained? Then it's just this year's flu.

Honestly, I expect virtually no impact outside of China. The main economic impacts I expect to be factory shutdown and travel restrictions within China from the government's policy to contain the disease.

The main concern about it was that - exposed to human selective factors for the first time - it might become unusually contageous or unusually deadly. But if it's "planning" to do so, it's certainly taking its sweet time.

 

[ggies07]

Actually he said the Model 3 modules are not interchangeable. (They are replaceable.)

ah, you are right, I will change my original post.

 

[EVNow]

Its very important Elon makes people believe these goals are achievable in the near term as this is what motivates his team to work on them and this is what attracts the brilliant engineers to work for him.

Yes, this is very important. Its the difference between a challenging assignment and a death march.

 

[Ratanpara]

This strength on face of ugly macro tells you something, Elon has stated in past ,Tesla is pretty leaky when comes to information, someone really knows about next generation battery.

 

[Nocturnal]

This strength on face of ugly macro tells you something, Elon has stated in past ,Tesla is pretty leaky when comes to information, someone really knows about next generation battery.

I know many think that the CT will have current battery tech but I'm still highly suspicious that the specs/price don't assume a big improvement.

 

[Curt Renz]

Andrea James summing things up nicely IMO:

Andrea S. James on Twitter

View attachment 506335

Here's more with her responses in that thread. Note that the top tweet is the latest, and the bottom tweet is the one that initiated the thread.

 

[M3Rider]

I don't think that's correct.

There was a video presentation from Andrej Karpathy where he showed how the features would be absorbed into the neural net. It very much appeared incremental (i.e. that once they could train and implement a new feature through the neural net they would release it). I wouldn't be expecting a step change result due to a "foundational rewrite".

I don't want to dig for quotes and admit that I didn't watch Karpathy video, just believe what Elon was implying for the new tech is much higher processing/decision making workload than before, including some additional categories of data being processed. So, maybe some neural nets can be ported, but it sounded like a lot of new stuff that changed from the state before, so prob. a lot of new training/testing.
I could be wrong.

 

[EVNow]

I want my short sqeeze darnit! Seems like those guys are willing to lose money forever.

I guess what happens is people continuously cover - and they either short again or run away scared/bankrupt. But, a new set of shorts come onboard - basically we'll have a lot of shorts until nobody thinks the story is "incredible". Once people accept it as a success like Amazon or Apple, they will continue to short.

Because of that - we'll have volatility - and shorts will find some success and profits from time to time that keeps them going.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Consolidation today, bonkers Monday? Just a hunch based on the last few weeks. Not an advice.

Probably. These macro dips on human jitters are very quickly soaked up by algos as opportunity.

Today's strength probably even means some further forced capitulation by shorts this afternoon.

 

[Fred42]

The $20K cost delta between the AWD Cybertruck with 300-mile range and the 3-motor Cybertruck with 500-mile range strongly implies that Tesla's battery cost will be around $100/kWh at the pack level in 2022 . . . There's something like a 80-100 kWh pack capacity difference between the two models to achieve those ranges.

It's a normal thing for a more expensive trim line to have higher profit margin.

 

[Toolsmack]

I’ve never followed a stock as closely as Tesla in my life, but others here may have so for those of you with experience tracking other stocks, do they behave in the same manner as Tesla in regards to option expiry Friday’s being controlled by the price of the options? Seems like it’s gotten backwards in Tesla, where normally a bet on the natural movement of the stock price is now determining the stock price. Is option trading extraordinarily large in Tesla?

 

[Nocturnal]

How do you guys handle options that are deep in the money and have a long time to expiration? I have a $600 1/15/21 call that's obviously way up. I expect we will be in the 800-1k range for sure at that point. Is it smart to roll it into a 1/15/21 at say $800?

 

[Highway2Heel]

Here's more with her responses in that thread. Note that the top tweet is the latest, and the bottom tweet is the one that initiated the thread.

View attachment 506372

And this also leads to gaps that don’t necessarily have to ever be filled. So, don’t wait for $580.99 again...that ship may have sailed.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood comments on Tesla.

Bloomberg - today:

damn, this lady speaks the real language! where are all the others???

 

[mejojo]

You make that sound so long - she's been retired "for half a decade".

You mean for 5 years?

6 of one....half dozen.......

 

[Rashomon]

It's a normal thing for a more expensive trim line to have higher profit margin.

Yes, which implies that the battery cost will be even less than $100/kWh, at the pack level!

 

[Drumheller]

1. It's not growing exponentially. They're finding about the same number of cases every day.

There is a limited amount of test kits available. That is what is restricting the number of known cases. The actual growth is unknown at this time.

 

[sparcs]

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood comments on Tesla.

Bloomberg - today:

if Tesla's costs continue to drop due to innovation, they will have vehicles that are cheaper to produce than ICE equivalent. Doesn't that mean margins will go up substantially since Tesla won't have to lower prices? They can sell it for the same price as an ICE equivalent. They could even get super aggressive and undercut them to drive market share. Why does Tesla's growth in automotive have to slow down even if there are some EV competitors?

(setting FSD aside due to unknown timeline)

 

[JRP3]

Posting this for the graphite ad in the beginning

 

[KarenRei]

There are limited amount of test kits available. That is what is restricted the number of known cases. The actual growth is unknown at this time.

Citation? One that's current?