Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rashomon]

nobody else is using cylindrical cells in volume for automotive. What other industries would even use 2170s in any sort of volume? power tools?
i was under the understanding that everybody else of any consequence is going pouch cells which is basically a different market.

(chinese automakers like byd, nio, etc might be the only exception where i haven't read too much about their sourcing)

2170s are the preferred form factor for ebikes and other ultra-lightweight electric vehicles. That’s more than 10gWh if you assume more than 20m worldwide production...

 

[juanmedina]

Would there be any wisdom to doing a stock split to allow retail investors on smaller budgets to get into the stock? $650 is really high all of a sudden.

Even a 10-for-1 split would only bring it down to $65. A 20-for-1 would be better.

I hope they do a stock split. I cannot buy fractional shares in my Vanguard IRA and I am trying to keep all my Tesla stock in retirement accounts. I am sure Elon will be ok with doing a split to help retail investors... someone tweet him.

 

[dww12]

I guess I don't see tunnels breaking through anything other than the dense inner cities. Even that...decades and decades to build out anything useful. Boring is interesting (had to say it ) but not earth shattering.

The other issues you mentioned seem to me to be very solvable if engineering excellence is directed in that direction. You'll find out in about 5 years or so when these services start. How long from there to drones? No idea. It might not be advantageous to be first mover..it might be. Something to watch.

I really like Lilium and I think it will happen, and I will want one, but I don’t think I will take a 500 mile trip in one (because of energy density and wh/mi). EV tunnels will happen because it will be cheaper/faster/more reliable than rail or surface truck and you can charge while moving.

 

[Fact Checking]

At 100' a day of boring per machine pair and some millions per mile you'll being a few centuries solving the problem. Flight could solve this in 5 years. I believe it is not an 0 threat to Tesla. 90 miles from sacramento to san fran and you could fly it in 30 min in an electric taxi. San Jose to Monterey would be 15 mins. Imagine...15 mins to home and a view and not f all for traffic. Closer to home for me it work would take 30 mins from Middleburg to Charlottesville area instead of 2 hours. Cut my commute by 3 hours a day and keep me from spending $ on airbnbs. Anyhow no matter how large an organization gets one can always innovate around them. Tesla is proof of that and somebody will try to innovate past Tesla. Electric flying cars seems a possible contender.

20m/day is with current TBM technologies.

The Boring Company wants 200m/day boring speed per tunnel side, and a 90 miles tunnel could be split into several sections, where each can be bored separately in parallel.

But even if it's a single 90mi (145 km) tunnel, with 0.2 km/day boring speed at both ends it's about 362 days of uninterrupted boring - or about a year.

Not decades or centuries.

(The projects that are going to be complicated are the intercontinental tunnels below oceans.)

 

[JRP3]

Eight more years before Robotaxi comes to full fruition? That would make Musk not just a little wrong about the timing of fully autonomous driving, but horribly wrong. No offense DaveT, but I’m going with Musk’s experience, expertise and track record over yours on this one.

Musk has been consistently wrong about the timing of FSD, so his track record is pretty bad.

 

[JRP3]

Boring is interesting (had to say it ) but not earth shattering.

Actually...

 

[AquaMan]

Battery day: Is it about Capacitor-battery hybrids? That could be amazing in many ways, and "blow minds" if they can make it work.

 

[elasalle]

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thanks to you both for the explanation. Makes sense now. I'm usually pretty good at maths, but never studied statistics and so I didn't get the terminology!

ARK's use of "scenarios" makes it a little confusing, because the tendency is to look at their table and graph as a cumulative series of additional optimistic assumptions. In fact, many of the scenarios are mutually exclusive and are just sorted based on their effect on SP.

When I’ve done scenario analysis in the past, I’ll assign simple probability distributions to the input variables (for example, a triangular distribution based on minimum expected, most likely and maximum expected values) then have the computer run a gazillion simulations using random number generators to compute values from the input variable distributions (classic Monte Carlo). You plot the output by how often the simulation result falls below a particular number (on a percentage basis). Because you’ve run so many cases, you get the appearance of a continuous cumulative probability distribution function - usually a somewhat smooth S-curve.

You can then fool yourself into thinking you are making intelligent choices based on this info. For example, if the model output is predicted project cost, you can choose a budget based on a 70% confidence cost won’t be exceeded. GIGO. You typically don’t care about the actual "scenarios" (the combinations of input values - which are realizations of their assumed statistics).

ARK's SP cumulative distribution function is made up of step functions because they use a discrete binary choice for the input variable values - giving only eight discrete scenarios instead of a gazillion synthetic ones from a Monte Carlo. Still, they use the statistics of the results to compute their bear case (25% confidence SP “will not exceed” value), median case (50% confidence SP “will not exceed” value), bull case (75% confidence SP “will not exceed” value) and expected value (probability weighted average of the simulation outputs).

Strictly speaking, none of these statistically produced cases (bear, median, bull, expected value) should be associated with a particular set of model scenarios. Different combinations of input values could result in identical model output (SP). However, because ARK uses so few scenarios and because the autonomy effect on SP is so amplified, one can see that 2024 autonomy probability must use the 70% value to realize a $15,000 SP or greater with 25% confidence (regardless of whether the other two input variable are at their maximum or minimum values). That’s about all you can conclude about the effects of inputs without running more "what-ifs".

edit: corrected expected value def.

 

[Hock1]

If there were any retail shorts left, they would have bid up the SP in the Pre-Market today (like happened when the SP breeched $550). Instead, this morning we saw this:

View attachment 506592

That's a huge effort to push the SP down to $630 allowing some whales to exit on the cheap. Retail doesn't have the resources to move the SP like this, its the fingerprint of MMs.

I suspect almost all of the retail shorts were margined out last week, and the only short positions left are whales like UBS, MorganStanley, and other MMs with suspictionsly low SP targets.

I also think that's why Ralph F. Nader needed to throw shade at Tesla on Twitter last week. His investment banker buddies are about to go bust, and they are squirming to crash the economy again for another juicy bailout (TARP).

I truly hope (without belief) that the U.S. Congress is smarter this time vs 2008, and realizes that big banks AREN'T too big to fail, America is better off without them, and lets them die a quick death.

#LETSROLL

Disintermediation is happening. The most glaring example of a group that is not only not contributing but in fact stealing from the system is the Wall Street brokers.They are definitely on their way out. I just hope we get to watch them go out in a ball of fire, instead of just fading away.

 

[Lessmog]

I am still amazed that they have to move ants. Surely every possible place that ants could naturally live is already full of ants. All you're going to do is create an ant migrant problem and ant wars.

Duh, it's the ant-war-movement!

 

[PeterJA]

So far, it looks like the plans for GF3/Shanghai call for only 1 battery workshop. It'll be more efficient to use common bty packs for both 3/Y in China, and save the new tech for the ~$25K "World Car" that's 2+ yrs out. The margins will be tight on that car, and they'll need cheap bty packs in large numbers for it to be a success. Perfect for the new tech!

It'll be enough if the GF3 Bty workshop can build their own 2170 cells. It sounds like that's the plan, since the planned bldg is still under construction, but Tesla says pack assembly has already begun (as of late Q4'19) at GF3.

Cheers!

What makes you think the battery "new tech" (Maxwell dry electrolyte, improved chemistry) will not be used for 2170 cells? 2170 (and 18650) is just a form factor, as Elon said in the conference call that you quoted to me. Tesla can put anything they want in that size can.

If the new tech has been prototyped and tested (which seems likely by now), why would Tesla build a brand new battery workshop that uses the old, less-efficient, more-costly production process and chemistry?

The fact that "pack assembly has already begun" does not mean it can't continue using new tech cells when available. I've seen nothing saying the new tech requires a new form factor.

 

[mongo]

At 100' a day of boring per machine pair and some millions per mile you'll being a few centuries solving the problem.

Good thing it's not that slow. Bertha was 35 feet a day for a huge tunnel. The goal is to be faster than a snail. Garden snail speed is 0.029 MPH or about 3,670 feet (0.7 miles, 1+ km) per day. I think your cost per mile is also pessimistic.

 

[DaveT]

Eight more years before Robotaxi comes to full fruition? That would make Musk not just a little wrong about the timing of fully autonomous driving, but horribly wrong. No offense DaveT, but I’m going with Musk’s experience, expertise and track record over yours on this one.

Just to clarify, when I say “full fruition” of the Robotaxi Network I don’t mean it will take 8 years to launch the Robotaxi Network.

Rather, Robotaxi Network might launch in the next few years but initially it won’t be very good and since human lives are at stake, adoption might be slower than some anticipate (ie, Ark).

Fully autonomous driving can be solved rather easily but making it safe is difficult. And safety has many different levels.

Robotaxi Network is probably the most exciting thing about Tesla’s future. And I think it’s going to happen. But I doubt we see 1 million active Robotaxis on Tesla Network doing true fully autonomous driving before 2023.

 

[StealthP3D]

So it depends on how good your investments are. (Other than TSLA, I've not had a lot of luck with investments, and not having a mortgage payment is a real life-saver.)

Jackpot machines, roulette wheels and lottery tickets are a matter of luck. Investing certainly has elements of luck but you need to pick the right investments. The ones I've had that didn't pan out I don't attribute to "bad luck" but rather bad decision-making processes. As soon as I realize I was probably wrong, I dump the losers ASAP and all at once. I also don't attribute my losers to misinformation. It's up to me to vet the info I base my decisions on for accuracy and weigh the info accordingly.

I've had more than my share of big winners. I don't attribute this to good luck, it's because I ride the winners hard and sell the losers. I am loathe to take ANY profits on my big winners until it's plain to see they have fully run their course. It's surprising how much better your returns are when you sell too late vs. way too early. When you sell too early you have a lack of information with which to judge that it's time to sell. When you sell too late, you have much more information available so it's much less likely you are selling way too soon. And selling too soon removes much of the most powerful investing tool at your disposal, compounded returns. Even selling portions of your winners off as they rise devastates returns.

I think if you "own" your decisions, you will make better decisions. If you attribute it to "luck" you will continue making sloppy decisions.

 

[DaveT]

Musk has been consistently wrong about the timing of FSD, so his track record is pretty bad.

Sometimes he gets a tad bit ahead of himself. Some are still waiting for that cross-country drive.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thoughts on that carnival barker showman Jim Cramer. Yes it is positive that he changed his tune.
Sure I grant a loud mouth that has a platform helps if he is singing the praises of TSLA.

But IMHO we don't need him. Any "help" he gives to the mission pales in comparison to the harm he did for how many years?
How much did he hurt the planet by delaying Tesla...and the whole industry by standing on his soap box and screaming (yes that is what he does...scream) that Tesla was a dud.

Tesla is succeeding now because of the incredible hard work of Elon and all the folks at Tesla. THEY are driving the mission forward THEY had to push up a very steep slope that in large part was made steeper due to the crap Cramer and his kind spewed day after day after day.

Now he sees that the tide has turned and the future is better for Tesla and he want's to jump on board. Smells a little to strong of a opportunistic prick.

I for one don't like rent seeking opportunistic pricks.

Hmm... I almost want to invite you to my island for a beer now.

 

[Krugerrand]

Musk has been consistently wrong about the timing of FSD, so his track record is pretty bad.

To be fair they did have to trash the original direction and drop a significant supplier and start over again, which caused a two? year reset.

I’ve debated with myself whether it was better that they kept silent about it versus announcing it. Neither scenario is particularly appetizing - have customers and others calling you a liar, saying you have no credibility concerning timelines or be upfront and having customers demanding refunds and the media bashing the company as failing — oh, wait.

Yeah, rock and hard place. Yeah, timeline off. BUT, I believe in the end the delays, the resets will all have been worth it and the final product will be spectacular and worth the wait. I also believe everyone else will be left in the dust.

 

[Christine69420]

Sometimes he gets a tad bit ahead of himself. Some are still waiting for that cross-country drive.

Yes he does. But I love it - I think it's just his creative brain seeing all the possibilities before the logical part have had enough time to process all the details.

And without that wonderful creativity we would not have had the Tesla of today.

I love his enthusiasm! Just like you do I guess.

 

[jerry33]

I am still amazed that they have to move ants. Surely every possible place that ants could naturally live is already full of ants. All you're going to do is create an ant migrant problem and ant wars.

I don't think we should get that antsy about it.