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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Therapy session: Someone wrote a comment a few hours ago about being accosted by friends and family urging them to sell, which resonated with me. I've been unable to keep my mouth entirely shut about owning Tesla over the years. Played possum about exact amounts, but some have the right idea. Those of my closest friends and colleagues who are interested in finance have caught on to this, and used this fact as a great source of entertainment through "420 funding secured", the Joe Rogan interview and the relentless short skepticism and misinformation and other crises since 2013.

At this point, I wish I'd been able to keep my mouth shut, but I'm just not disciplined enough to keep that quiet about something that interests me this much over a 5+ year timeframe. So there's a few work colleagues who keep urging me to sell. Some of it is clearly motivated by concern, given that there's (presumably) a lot of money on the line, and I've actually trimmed my position somewhat, to have a small hedge against macro crisis or other unexpected catastrophe.

But for one or two, it's almost as if they wish me to sell in order to hedge their own egos in case it turns out that I'm right, and that a stabilization in market cap will not be reached for years yet. And if that should happen, that they could at least console themselves with "well, but marvinat0rz sold too, so no one could have seen it coming". It distinctly feels like there's some envy there as well. Part of me just wants to say "well, you've had every opportunity to make similar investments but you haven't; and even then you would have bailed out five years ago and probably had ulcers -- what makes you believe that your judgement is better than mine and that this is good advice?"

But of course I won't say that, both because it's a douchebag move and because I can't stand the idea of both being out a lot of money and having made very hubristic comments in my social circle when the next recession hits, or if there is some (heaven forbid) unexpected disaster.

It's actually not so easy to be on this kind of emotional rollercoaster, which I'm sure plenty of contributors to this forum know. You really need to have been there to know. The stakes are high, and this is not appreciated by people sitting on the sidelines. No one in my social circle has the stomach for risk that I do, so there's not a lot of people to share this with. Of course it's not some "waaah waah, poor us" situation, but there's an emotional aspect of investing for the long term that's poorly appreciated. Would be better to just tune it out, but it's not so easy when it's on the front page of even my small-time Norwegian economic newspaper every other week.

Thanks for listening, felt good to get this off my chest ;)
 
Correct, someone is selling in large volumes (compared to available liquidity) on Frankfurt Xetra to keep the TSLA price down - this could be in coordination with the Nasdaq open in about 8 minutes for a bear attack.

There is no news anywhere, manufactured or otherwise, to justify such a move. I believe hedge funds that wrote calls might be worried about this Friday's expiry and started a price and market manipulation bear attack when TSLA was getting close to $970 yesterday.

Note that the market used by the bear attack is the Xetra exchange, not Frankfurt:

View attachment 508089

Note the very high volumes, while both Frankfurt and Stuttgart exchanges barely registered any trading. So the short who launched this short attack is working through Xetra to have maximum impact while using one of the least liquid European exchanges that trades Tesla.

Edit, here's how the illegal market manipulation bear attack transitioned over to Nasdaq pre-market trading:

View attachment 508090

The first chart is 4 minutes into Nasdaq pre-market trading which started at 4am ET - the chart lined up below is Xetra, 10am CEST at the same time:
  • The short attacker, shortly before Nasdaq trading opened, started closing the short position (the bounce-back), and volume died down.
  • There was no genuine, legitimate selling pressure on Xetra - the whole point was to depress the TSLA price in Nasdaq open through the use of a single low liquidity European exchanges, using just around 70,000 shares of volume.
  • On Nasdaq volume is now lower than the European one - I suspect the bear attacker is using limit orders to keep the price fixed at significantly lower prices than yesterday's close, to establish a negative sentiment going into the open.

#2nd edit, 15 minutes more of the same charts:

View attachment 508091

Here you can see from the Xetra volume that whoever manufactured that price dip, very likely reversed the Xetra short position almost completely and moved operations over to the Nasdaq pre-market. While we are guessing here, regulators have access to transaction logs and can identify whether it was the same trading entity creating the dip and then recovering the short position.

Also note how Xetra volume effectively dried up after this price manipulation event - suggesting that whoever did this didn't have any legitimate EU investment purposes, but the sole purpose was to manipulate the Nasdaq early-hours opening price.

There is very few legitimate reasons for such trading activity - pretty much the only purpose is to manipulate and distort the market.

#3rd edit, this is yesterday's "$100 TSLA flash crash" event:

View attachment 508095

That is a 30sec chart from Nasdaq on 02/04/2020, where unknown entities manipulated the TSLA price at around 15:49 ET and the surrounding minutes to drop $100 in a short period of time, by using aggressive, abusive market orders or far-below-bid sell limit orders to 'mark down the price' without any real intention to sell effectively.

In this case too no rational investor in Tesla securities would execute trades in this fashion (because they'd lose tens of millions of dollars executing sell orders in such a poor fashion), and there was no Tesla or macro news driving this action.

Time for Tesla shareholders to file SEC complaints I suspect. European regulators should have no trouble finding out who was selling short those shares well below yesterday's market prices.

Here's the place to file a SEC Investor Complaint - European shareholders can file complaints too:


After filling out personal details, I'd suggest a variant of this for the "Tell Us About Your Complaint" field:

On or around February 5, 2020, 4am ET, a "short and distort" campaign was launched against Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) investors in European trading, on the low liquidity Xetra exchange (TL0:XTRA), and on the Nasdaq early-trading system.

The purpose of this attack was to illegally manipulate the Nasdaq early trading opening price, by unknown parties suspected to be options writers for $800+ strikes on Friday's 02/07 TSLA options expiry series.

A timestamped, annotated summary of events can be found at this link:
Code:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4451429/

The link also contains description of the "$100 TSLA Flash Crash" market manipulation event that occurred at around 02/04/2020 15:49 ET, when unknown parties executed large and deliberately ineffective order flow in an effort to mark down the TSLA price and trigger "stop-loss" orders, which caused harm to TSLA investors.

All of these abusive, illegal actions have harmed the market value of my TSLA shares or options.​

Only file a SEC complaint if you agree with the contents, of course! :D

Also note that even if this SEC administration decides not to inquire into these market anomalies, there's an election at the end of the year and the next administration might. All investor complaints have to be archived and stored indefinitely by the SEC I believe.

Obvious manipulation in the exact same way they manipulated the stock a few weeks ago with the NHTSA unintended acceleration thing.

manipulation.jpg


That day went the exact same. Heavily manipulated EU trading, followed by an absurd sell order right at the open of US pre-market trading.

I wonder if they're going to back this up today with some FUD articles just like a few weeks ago.

If the market opens around this price ($850-$870), I'll probably buy a small amount of calls expiring next Friday.

The market might look through the manipulations this time though, so let's see what happens.
 
There is no news anywhere, manufactured or otherwise, to justify such a move. I believe hedge funds that wrote calls might be worried about this Friday's expiry and started a price and market manipulation bear attack when TSLA was getting close to $970 yesterday.
There was no news to justify a +50% in a couple day to begin with. A lot of people are just FOMOing as the price goes vertical at never seen level of overextension.
As soon as the buying pressure starts to abate and the price begin to slide a lot of chaser will want to get out as soon as possible and the selling orders will pile up. Technical traders will enter a quite obvious topping setup. Some long term holder will exit making massive profits. Given the run without consolidation or digestion there is no support below. That said, plenty of people will want to buy the first minor dip, but eventually it should trade again and test support levels in the $500s or the ER gap at ~ $615.
Yesterday massive doji candle with enormous volume was the first real warning sign of exhaustion.
A pullback from these levels is just healthy and doesn't mean much for long term holders. It will provide some buying opportunities at lower prices.
Today should be another wild day, looking forward to the open. :)
 
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A lot of things seem to be aligning:

- Trump may not have been confused about this 'very big plant', but may have been referring to Giga Texas.
- Cybertruck needs a factory and where better to build it than in 'trucking heartland'. Semi could also be built there.
- Battery Day is coming up and those 2T of batteries are not going to be built in Nevada (lack of workforce, housing). Texas probably has plenty of those (any locals want to chime in about possibie locations?).
- Tesla already has a presence in Austin and is expanding.

The icing on the cake could be that the state needs to allow direct sales to get the Giga.

Last time a location outside of San Antonio TX came in second in the GF sweepstakes.

S.A., Reno leaders for Tesla battery factory
 
Rumours of a new Giga Texas has hit the news media.

Elon Musk asked Twitter users whether Tesla Inc. should build a new factory in Texas, as the electric-car maker accelerates a global push to tap rising demand for its vehicles.

The chief executive officer simply asked “Giga Texas?” and invited his 31 million followers to vote “Hell yeah” or “Nope.” As of just after midnight San Francisco time Wednesday, more than 125,000 people had voted, with about 80% responding yes.​

Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
 
Last edited:
Therapy session: Someone wrote a comment a few hours ago about being accosted by friends and family urging them to sell, which resonated with me. I've been unable to keep my mouth entirely shut about owning Tesla over the years. Played possum about exact amounts, but some have the right idea. Those of my closest friends and colleagues who are interested in finance have caught on to this, and used this fact as a great source of entertainment through "420 funding secured", the Joe Rogan interview and the relentless short skepticism and misinformation and other crises since 2013.

At this point, I wish I'd been able to keep my mouth shut, but I'm just not disciplined enough to keep that quiet about something that interests me this much over a 5+ year timeframe. So there's a few work colleagues who keep urging me to sell. Some of it is clearly motivated by concern, given that there's (presumably) a lot of money on the line, and I've actually trimmed my position somewhat, to have a small hedge against macro crisis or other unexpected catastrophe.

But for one or two, it's almost as if they wish me to sell in order to hedge their own egos in case it turns out that I'm right, and that a stabilization in market cap will not be reached for years yet. And if that should happen, that they could at least console themselves with "well, but marvinat0rz sold too, so no one could have seen it coming". It distinctly feels like there's some envy there as well. Part of me just wants to say "well, you've had every opportunity to make similar investments but you haven't; and even then you would have bailed out five years ago and probably had ulcers -- what makes you believe that your judgement is better than mine and that this is good advice?"

But of course I won't say that, both because it's a douchebag move and because I can't stand the idea of both being out a lot of money and having made very hubristic comments in my social circle when the next recession hits, or if there is some (heaven forbid) unexpected disaster.

It's actually not so easy to be on this kind of emotional rollercoaster, which I'm sure plenty of contributors to this forum know. You really need to have been there to know. The stakes are high, and this is not appreciated by people sitting on the sidelines. No one in my social circle has the stomach for risk that I do, so there's not a lot of people to share this with. Of course it's not some "waaah waah, poor us" situation, but there's an emotional aspect of investing for the long term that's poorly appreciated. Would be better to just tune it out, but it's not so easy when it's on the front page of even my small-time Norwegian economic newspaper every other week.

Thanks for listening, felt good to get this off my chest ;)

Tell them you sold it all, psyed half in tax and have shorted through the rise. You've lost it all.

Some will be skeptical, but they got no proof.
 

For France, another source has reported 8.2% BEVs plus 2.8% PHEVs.

"With 10,952 registrations registered, the electric car represented more than 8% of new vehicle sales during the month of January. A historic score which is largely explained by the excellent results of the Renault ZOE."

"With more than 3,700 registrations registered, the plug-in hybrid also recorded a historic performance, accounting for 2.8% of new vehicle sales. In total, 14,746 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were registered in France in January, representing 12% of the market." (Note: 8.2+2.8=11 so should be 11%?)

Voiture électrique : 10952 immatriculations et 8,2 % de parts de marché en janvier (Per Google translate)

BEV sales were up almost 4X from January 2019 as France's new "bonus/malus" system kicked in along with EU emissions penalties.
 
Last edited:
Correct, someone is selling in large volumes (compared to available liquidity) on Frankfurt Xetra to keep the TSLA price down - this could be in coordination with the Nasdaq open in about 8 minutes for a bear attack.

There is no news anywhere, manufactured or otherwise, to justify such a move. I believe hedge funds that wrote calls might be worried about this Friday's expiry and started a price and market manipulation bear attack when TSLA was getting close to $970 yesterday.

Note that the market used by the bear attack is the Xetra exchange, not Frankfurt:

View attachment 508089

Note the very high volumes, while both Frankfurt and Stuttgart exchanges barely registered any trading. So the short who launched this short attack is working through Xetra to have maximum impact while using one of the least liquid European exchanges that trades Tesla.

Edit, here's how the illegal market manipulation bear attack transitioned over to Nasdaq pre-market trading:

View attachment 508090

The first chart is 4 minutes into Nasdaq pre-market trading which started at 4am ET - the chart lined up below is Xetra, 10am CEST at the same time:
  • The short attacker, shortly before Nasdaq trading opened, started closing the short position (the bounce-back), and volume died down.
  • There was no genuine, legitimate selling pressure on Xetra - the whole point was to depress the TSLA price in Nasdaq open through the use of a single low liquidity European exchanges, using just around 70,000 shares of volume.
  • On Nasdaq volume is now lower than the European one - I suspect the bear attacker is using limit orders to keep the price fixed at significantly lower prices than yesterday's close, to establish a negative sentiment going into the open.

#2nd edit, 15 minutes more of the same charts:

View attachment 508091

Here you can see from the Xetra volume that whoever manufactured that price dip, very likely reversed the Xetra short position almost completely and moved operations over to the Nasdaq pre-market. While we are guessing here, regulators have access to transaction logs and can identify whether it was the same trading entity creating the dip and then recovering the short position.

Also note how Xetra volume effectively dried up after this price manipulation event - suggesting that whoever did this didn't have any legitimate EU investment purposes, but the sole purpose was to manipulate the Nasdaq early-hours opening price.

There is very few legitimate reasons for such trading activity - pretty much the only purpose is to manipulate and distort the market.

#3rd edit, this is yesterday's "$100 TSLA flash crash" event:

View attachment 508095

That is a 30sec chart from Nasdaq on 02/04/2020, where unknown entities manipulated the TSLA price at around 15:49 ET and the surrounding minutes to drop $100 in a short period of time, by using aggressive, abusive market orders or far-below-bid sell limit orders to 'mark down the price' without any real intention to sell effectively.

In this case too no rational investor in Tesla securities would execute trades in this fashion (because they'd lose tens of millions of dollars executing sell orders in such a poor fashion), and there was no Tesla or macro news driving this action.

Time for Tesla shareholders to file SEC complaints I suspect. European regulators should have no trouble finding out who was selling short those shares well below yesterday's market prices.

Here's the place to file a SEC Investor Complaint - European shareholders can file complaints too:


After filling out personal details, I'd suggest a variant of this for the "Tell Us About Your Complaint" field:

On or around February 5, 2020, 4am ET, a "short and distort" campaign was launched against Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) investors in European trading, on the low liquidity Xetra exchange (TL0:XTRA), and on the Nasdaq early-trading system.

The purpose of this attack was to illegally manipulate the Nasdaq early trading opening price, by unknown parties suspected to be options writers for $800+ strikes on Friday's 02/07 TSLA options expiry series.

A timestamped, annotated summary of events can be found at this link:
Code:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4451429/

The link also contains description of the "$100 TSLA Flash Crash" market manipulation event that occurred at around 02/04/2020 15:49 ET, when unknown parties executed large and deliberately ineffective order flow in an effort to mark down the TSLA price and trigger "stop-loss" orders, which caused harm to TSLA investors.

All of these abusive, illegal actions have harmed the market value of my TSLA shares or options.​

Only file a SEC complaint if you agree with the contents, of course! :D

Also note that even if this SEC administration decides not to inquire into these market anomalies, there's an election at the end of the year and the next administration might. All investor complaints have to be archived and stored indefinitely by the SEC I believe.

Was yesterday’s drop not more than 10%? Shouldn’t the uptick rule be implemented??
 
I keep hearing about $$$ movements, $60 at sp 900 = $20 at sp 300 or $13.33 when sp was $200.

Shouldn't we be talking in %'s instead of $'s?

I’m so conditioned to the 200-350 range that I look at the $ moves. Still doing it, then get immediately confused when I see it’s such a tiny %age o_O

Will be looking into buying some options if this dip persists...

We might get another raid at open, full pre-market trading (7 minutes from now) might be indicative.
 
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Reactions: FrankSG
Here it comes. On SA, (Don’t want to link there) from author who never wrote on TSLA before. :eek:

“5 Reasons Tesla Shorts Should Double Up, Not Give Up”

I think we are in for a barrage of these over next few days. There will inevitably be some profit taking here, and I actually do think that shorts will be reloading here. Won’t be surprised to see short interest increase by end of the week.

How low will it go this week is the question...
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Tslynk67
I’m so conditioned to the 200-350 range that I look at the $ moves. Still doing it, then get immediately confused when I see it’s such a tiny %age o_O

Will be looking into buying some options if this dip persists...

We might get another raid at open, full pre-market trading (7 minutes from now) might be indicative.

Yeah a $100 drop back then would have been huge, now it's 10 or so %
 
A lot of things seem to be aligning:

- Trump may not have been confused about this 'very big plant', but may have been referring to Giga Texas.
- Cybertruck needs a factory and where better to build it than in 'trucking heartland'. Semi could also be built there.
- Battery Day is coming up and those 2T of batteries are not going to be built in Nevada (lack of workforce, housing). Texas probably has plenty of those (any locals want to chime in about possibie locations?).
- Tesla already has a presence in Austin and is expanding.

The icing on the cake could be that the state needs to allow direct sales to get the Giga.

Gentrify Mordor?