Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[pnungesser]

Hell, I'd just like to be able to cross central US east-west using I-40. Easy fix with a single SC near Ft. Smith Arkansas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That was a reference to the cheap calls they were selling last year when it was more than obvious Tesla had turned the corner. This caused an outsized demand for the calls relative to the puts so they had an imbalance that needed to be corrected by buying more Tesla shares which turned into a positive feedback loop since it happened at the same time that many other investors who were slower than most of us here started buying/increasing long positions also.

Thanks for helping us understand what happened last week, and the machinations behind the curtain.

But, what do we can this event? It wasn't really a short squeeze: MMs were shorting like demons throughout.

It's not a liquidity crunch: there were PLENTY of shares for sale, mostly sold short.

So, what do we call it when this MMs-options-delta-hedging-share-purchase-exponential-feedback-loop occurs next time?

Cheers!

 

[Maitri982]

FSD being easy is a relative concept for Keller. There are harder problems out there. I think FSD was one of those 10x step changes in computing and maybe it is a 100x challenge, which is about where the FSD 3 chip is vs the first AP chip. My optimism has been poorly rewarded so far, but I expect 2020 is going to be a good year for AI driving systems-at least for Tesla.

Would love for that to be true. But I know a thing or two about this field and piecing together several items we are hearing and I think we are still a ways off. By that I mean probably 2022ish. But this year could bring some major advances, just not FSD itself.

 

[bhtooefr]

The trick with that kind of area is that it's all low speed.

I suspect you might have to add some sort of logic (this may mean training the neural net) to recognize that you're entering such an intersection, and upon doing so, impose a lower speed limit on yourself.

Then, follow the rules for an uncontrolled intersection in Vienna Convention signatories - yield to traffic coming from your right - and avoid collisions along your desired path.

 

[Curt Renz]

Solving The Money Problem - yesterday:

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

2 things:
Programming in C++, and NNs/AI is kinda my thing. By no means an expert but...

It is absolutely true that many times, after working for ages (even a decade) on coding some big complex system, you DO find that if you scrub everything and start from scratch, its faster, simpler and better. Sounds ridiculous but its true. Tis just the nature of huge complex code projects.
Regarding the recent rewrite, I remember originally assuming the tesla approach was pure-neural-network AI. in other words: get the AI to take in visual input and output driving decisions, without any conventional logic code at all. I was quite surprised (I confess a bit disappointed) to discover that they were using neural nets/ML to just do object recognition, and then using conventional logic to decide what to do. This seemed nonsensical to me (although certainly a more normal and explainable route to take, with maybe less 'risk'?)

I think pushing more of the code into NNs/ML makes a lot of sense for precisely the weird human-interaction edge cases described, like intersections, and trying to work out if a human will step out and so-on. There are two ways to handle this:

1) conventional code route. Use the NN to determine that this is a human face. Then use hard-coded conventional if/else style logic (probably fuzzy) to code in a decision as to what to do in every circumstance, given what the NN says the car can see.
2) true-NN code for everything. The car recognizes what it can see, and what a human does in these circumstances. Stuff just *happens*. If you could really dig through the code you could *maybe* extrapolate what neurons are detecting facial expressions and what connection-weights are causing the car to go/stop depending on what it sees...but good luck with that.

1) Is the solution that lawyers want. Also politicians. behavior can be hard coded, tested and verified. its a staggering, maybe impossible amount of coding.
2) Might actually give us FSD. Its also the sort of path that eventually leads to general AI and sci-fi futures. Nobody will *know* how it works.

I think 2) explains why they need a super fast dedicated chip. it will only really be needed for 2). General case decision code will not get anything like the same benefits from dedicated hardware.

I may be wrong, I'm not a depreciated expert in this field as it pertains to self-driving.

offtopic: Oh...so seeing the northern lights is easy is it??? a sore topic having just returned from a 4 day trip to finland where we stayed in kanklautannen, a resort built SPECIFICALLY for northern lights viewing, with an igloo bedroom designed for lights viewing, and a 24/7 northern lights alarm in every room (seriously). We saw bugger all

 

[MC3OZ]

The trick with that kind of area is that it's all low speed.

I suspect you might have to add some sort of logic (this may mean training the neural net) to recognize that you're entering such an intersection, and upon doing so, impose a lower speed limit on yourself.

Then, follow the rules for an uncontrolled intersection in Vienna Convention signatories - yield to traffic coming from your right - and avoid collisions along your desired path.

Also at low speeds ultrasound should be more useful and there is more time to correct bad initial decisions...

Go slow is also the recommend path while a large group of drunk Irish People pile out of a pub when you are driving down a road an night in the rain.... I avoided hitting them with the car,,, that doesn't mean they didn't manage to bump into a stationary car...

 

[bzbee]

Sunshine on Yahoo Finance's youtube channel...today:

Cathie Wood preaches the gospel

 

[Words of HABIT]

You don't need to go that far North. Pretty much anywhere in Canada will get you Northern Lights, although the farther North the better. A few miles North of Edmonton Alberta would be your best bet for a comfortable Tesla trip. They are available year round, but winter is the best viewing. Maximum effect during periods of high sunspot activity and solar storms.

A significant portion of Canada (including where 80% of its population resides) is South the of the 49th parallel that separates USA from Canada in the Prairies and West part of North America.

I've give you creds for Edmonton. Athabasca, Alberta (near Edmonton) is ranked as the #2 spot to see the Northern Lights by WestJet Magazine. With Superchargers along the TransCanada hwy there is no longer any excuse not to go there for a visit.
The Best Places in Canada to See the Northern Lights - WestJet Magazine

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla can get support for German factory: Economy Minister

A break of $970 on Monday can see $2-3k on Tuesday

 

[rsm287]

FSD being easy is a relative concept for Keller. There are harder problems out there. I think FSD was one of those 10x step changes in computing and maybe it is a 100x challenge, which is about where the FSD 3 chip is vs the first AP chip. My optimism has been poorly rewarded so far, but I expect 2020 is going to be a good year for AI driving systems-at least for Tesla.

When something is improving at an exponential rate, it will disappoint in the short term, but pleasantly surprise in the long term. It's like the adoption curve for EVs.....it took quite a few years to go from 0 to 2%, but the adoption is now accelerating and it will take roughly the same time or less to go from here to more than 50% of the market.

 

[StealthP3D]

So, what do we call it when this MMs-options-delta-hedging-share-purchase-exponential-feedback-loop occurs next time?

MODHSPEFL ?

 

[Late2theGame]

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

That's today's - we would need the one from end of Monday. The site does not show any from past dates as far as I can tell.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Thanks for helping us understand what happened last week, and the machinations behind the curtain.

But, what do we can this event? It wasn't really a short squeeze: MMs were shorting like demons throughout.

It's not a liquidity crunch: there were PLENTY of shares for sale, mostly sold short.

So, what do we call it when this MMs-options-delta-hedging-share-purchase-exponential-feedback-loop occurs next time?

Cheers!

They are trying not to let it happen again, they've jacked up premiums into orbit to make sure it won't. The real question is how long they can keep options this expensive since that itself is also a market distortion.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla can get support for German factory: Economy Minister

A break of $970 on Monday can see $2-3k on Tuesday

“In my conversations with (Tesla CEO) Elon Musk I have always made clear that there are no privileges but also no discrimination,”

OK.

“Altmaier said in order to qualify for state subsidies companies needed to fulfill certain requirements in the areas of sustainability and battery efficiency.”

Hope Tesla can meet that challenge.

 

[Artful Dodger]

MODHSPEFL ? MOD HEL

FTFY. Needed a little shorting.

 

[anthonyj]

They are trying not to let it happen again, they've jacked up premiums into orbit to make sure it won't. The real question is how long they can keep options this expensive since that itself is also a market distortion.

Last ten minutes of trading Friday I watched calls rise 10-15% in price. There was a lot of buying of the $1,000-$1,800 calls which weren’t that expensive.

 

[Prunesquallor]

FTFY. Needed a little shorting.

I think MODHEL is every day. What say you @Right_Said_Fred ?

 

[madodel]

Yes, it was manipulation. From Tue-Thu, FINRA reported there were 2,136,450 shares sold marked as "ShortExempt", which means they were not located before being sold.

This would be illegal naked short selling except for the Market Makers Exemption (the "Madoff Rule"), which allows MMs to artificially (and without limit) increase the float even during times of high volume (when there is plenty of liquidity). This is an abuse of the exemption, which was intended to 'provide liquidity' but is now being used by unscrupulous parties to crash the SP while they scoop huge profits.

On Wed-Thu this week (in the middle of this bear raid), FINRA reported "ShortExempt" sales reached 9% of total shares sold short: (during a period of huge trading volume when liquidity is NOT AN ISSUE).

View attachment 509185

This had the effect of killing the sustained rally of Tue afternoon, and causing widespread panic selling amongst real shareholders (sorry @Right_Said_Fred this is the illegal practice you got swept up in).

View attachment 509189

This is market manipulation, pure and simple. Your hand waving attempt to explain it away does not change the reality, nor deal with the underlying problem: Regulation SHO (see below).

Let's see if these anonymous MMs can locate all these naked short shares before they are legally required to report their activity in the Failure to Deliver (FTD) report after 13 days. If these MMs are able to locate shares post hoc, it simply means legitimate investors were duped into selling their shares by the panic created by the dumping of millions of non-existant shares. If they can't locate shares, there are no consequences, and the actors involved remain anonymous.

Tell me again how this isn't manipulation? Where is the SEC?

Paging @UncaNed @Hock1
Info: @Fact Checking @KarenRei @lklundin

More here about the Market Maker's Exemption (Regulation SHO):
Regulation SHO | FINRA.org
Key Points About Regulation SHO

A final note: FINRA-reported volume is just a fraction of total trading on NASDAQ. During this week for example, FINRA reported a total volume of just 94,702,898 (94.70M) shares, while we know that total NASDAQ volume was 208,823,482 (208.8M) during that time (FINRA only reports numbers for Pre-Market and the Main Session, does not include the After-Market Session).

We have ZERO visibility into how much the rest of NASDAQ trading is sold short, or conducted under the short selling exemption. We do know that last week, we have no short selling information on 54.65% of all TSLA trades done on NASDAQ.

Think about what that means for Investor confidence and the transparency of the Market.

So they can make the price anything they chose whenever they want. We probably have a fairer chance in Atlantic City or Las Vegas. At least they have some rules they follow. If they can't locate shares what happens to the shares people bought from these thieves?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

So, what do we call it when this MMs-options-delta-hedging-share-purchase-exponential-feedback-loop occurs next time?

Cheers!

Here to help.
It’s still long, but it can be sung to the following for Mnemonic benefit.
It’s....
Marmaykoptions Delta Hedging
Sharepur Expo FeeeeedLoooop!