Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

So they can make the price anything they chose whenever they want. We probably have a fairer chance in Atlantic City or Las Vegas. At least they have some rules they follow. If they can't locate shares what happens to the shares people bought from these thieves?

Read Regulation SHO under Rule 204 – Close-out Requirement. Penalties for Broker Fails to Deliver:

If the position is not closed out, the broker or dealer and any broker or dealer for which it clears transactions (for example, an introducing broker)[9] may not effect further short sales in that security without borrowing or entering into a bona fide agreement to borrow the security (known as the “pre-borrowing” requirement) until the broker or dealer purchases shares to close out the position and the purchase clears and settles.​

Key Points About Regulation SHO

 

[kbM3]

My understanding of the Taycan is that it runs in 2nd gear except during low speeds in Sports and Sports+ modes.

Therefore could the large discrepancy between the horrendous EPA efficiency and the relatively good efficiency on the 75 mph Car and Driver test, be a direct result of the motors (and the 2nd gear ratio) being tuned to be more efficient at relatively high speeds so it does well on the German Autobahn, at the direct expense of lower efficiency in lower speed driving?

We also know Plaid drivetrain (at least in the Roadster2) will have a single very tall gear because it can go 250 mph. The batteries and motors put out so much power it can still achieve great 0-60 mph acceleration which would normally be impossible with such a tall gear.

Elon called the Plaid drivetrain Alien Tech. I assumed he was referring to performance, but could the very tall gearing plus judicious tuning of the 3 motors result in even better efficiency across the board than Raven?

 

[Silentk]

To cheer you up a little:

 

[Rashomon]

Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents

The implications are the new cells might be 40mm diameter by perhaps 70mm long, with an energy density of 320Wh/kg, and a price well under $100/kWh. Of course, it may all be BS.

 

[Vad42]

Tesla can get support for German factory: Economy Minister

A break of $970 on Monday can see $2-3k on Tuesday

Sure, sure. And then back to $850 on Wednesday. Almost like last week.

This will definitely happen because everyone on /r/wallstreetbets will first buy millions of calls on Monday and then on Tuesday sell them and switch to puts.

Easy money...

 

[Quesder]

Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents

The implications are the new cells might be 40mm diameter by perhaps 70mm long, with an energy density of 320Wh/kg, and a price well under $100/kWh. Of course, it may all be BS.

Can I say that 100kwh will be roughly 300 kg only?
How is that number compare to the current one?

 

[SageBrush]

Thanks for helping us understand what happened last week, and the machinations behind the curtain.

But, what do we can this event? It wasn't really a short squeeze: MMs were shorting like demons throughout.

It's not a liquidity crunch: there were PLENTY of shares for sale, mostly sold short.

So, what do we call it when this MMs-options-delta-hedging-share-purchase-exponential-feedback-loop occurs next time?

Cheers!

As usual, I am confused ...

Are you saying that the MMs were buying to delta hedge and shorting at the same time ?

 

[winfield100]

Here to help.
It’s still long, but it can be sung to the following for Mnemonic benefit.
It’s....
Marmaykoptions Delta Hedging
Sharepur Expo FeeeeedLoooop!

OT
@SW2Fiddler
Why do you look like Kif Wyvernauff?
(Might be keef )

 

[Yuri_G]

My understanding of the Taycan is that it runs in 2nd gear except during low speeds in Sports and Sports+ modes.

Therefore could the large discrepancy between the horrendous EPA efficiency and the relatively good efficiency on the 75 mph Car and Driver test, be a direct result of the motors (and the 2nd gear ratio) being tuned to be more efficient at relatively high speeds so it does well on the German Autobahn, at the direct expense of lower efficiency in lower speed driving?

We also know Plaid drivetrain (at least in the Roadster2) will have a single very tall gear because it can go 250 mph. The batteries and motors put out so much power it can still achieve great 0-60 mph acceleration which would normally be impossible with such a tall gear.

Elon called the Plaid drivetrain Alien Tech. I assumed he was referring to performance, but could the very tall gearing plus judicious tuning of the 3 motors result in even better efficiency across the board than Raven?

The Taycan met their EPA highway numbers in the C&D test. The Model S was off by 20%. It doesn't make sense unless they screwed up the test due to ignorance or malice.

 

[Rashomon]

Can I say that 100kwh will be roughly 300 kg only?
How is that number compare to the current one?

Current cells are 250Wh/kg. The new cells are rumored to be about 320Wh/kg. Tesla’s current packs are fairly heavy beyond the cell weight. The new module patent with current collectors integrated into the cell structure would allow a lighter battery pack beyond the cell weight reduction.

 

[VT_EE]

The Taycan met their EPA highway numbers in the C&D test. The Model S was off by 20%. It doesn't make sense unless they screwed up the test due to ignorance or malice.

Or the Taycan has horrendous efficiency in the non-highway portions of the test. The Car and Driver article indicated most of their driving was at highway speed, not stop and go.

 

[SageBrush]

Current cells are 250Wh/kg. The new cells are rumored to be about 320Wh/kg. Tesla’s current packs are fairly heavy beyond the cell weight. The new module patent with current collectors integrated into the cell structure would allow a lighter battery pack beyond the cell weight reduction.

This is kinda sorta matching up with my envelope arithmetic of the cost reductions in battery needed to explain the Semi and cybertruck pricing.

 

[capster]

Very interesting stuff, but none of this really supports full FSD (Robotaxi level) being able to operate on FSD.

Autopilot on City street will work on HW3, but full FSD might require a few more iterations of hardware.

As the saying goes, this type of thing is impossible — till it’s been done. Then, it’s trivial.

For my Tesla investment time horizon, I actually think of Tesla robotaxi FSD as more or less a solved problem. I suspect they’ll be fine with HW3, but if they iterate a bit more, it’s neither here nor there to me.

I’m more curious about how the larger picture plays out for the energy transformation, what else might Tesla do with a massive Dojo based system, the consequences of traditional players falling ‘abruptly,’ who the other new faces might be, and so on. Maybe I’ll find some new place where I can be useful. I find the tunnels and hyperloop particularly intriguing and full of possibilities. Though I know many are sceptical, the ramifications could be profound there too.

My goal wasn’t to make a case or convince you. You asked, I answered. I’m nowhere near close to this problem area anymore, but my approach to forecasting might be helpful to you. Perhaps you are considering things from too close a perspective, I dunno.

It took me too long to learn, but it’s also pointless to try to "prove it" to engineers or executives when it comes to forecasts (no offense). Better to not bother and just place one’s bets.

I’m comfortable with an optimistic forecast on FSD, but would be the first to acknowledge how difficult it is to gauge the precise timing of momentous breakthroughs.

 

[kalefranz]

OT: to Mods: If you have influence with the site admins, would you consider adding an “off topic” voting option for posts? That could end up applying some social pressure, especially for newer members unfamiliar with the etiquette here, making your job somewhat easier.

 

[GLDYLX]

Lately I had been too much focussed on the effect of the stock movements on the financial value of my portfolio, which at the top was up 720k, and a few trading hours later was up 520k.
........
So I bailed.
.........
It feels incredibly good to be back in! And even if it goes down, maybe even by a lot, I’ll hang in there. With all of you. Because I know what the goal is and I know we will get there. There will be a lot of dips along the way, but that’s okay.

The next time TSLA volatility has you hyperventilating, take a deep breath and say,
"WheeeEEEeeeeeeeEEEEEeee!!!"

It'll calm your breathing and, unless you're a mutant, you'll find that it's impossible not to smile while you say it!

Hang on tight and enjoy the ride!

FD: My TSLA purchases occurred 2012-2016. Barring personal black swans, or something truly silly involving exploding bear heads, I HODL for the foreseeable future.

Happy Saturday!

 

[Artful Dodger]

BTW, I predict TSLA will exceed $770 by Apr 30, 2020.

WELL, that aged QUICKLY...

Cheers!

 

[S3XY]

Yeah, Austin isn't Mordor. That'd be Port Arthur.

Tesla needs to build a foundry to make their special Stainless steel alloy, then needs to deliver it to SpaceX for Starship production, and Tesla for Cybertruck.

One caveat here: if plans for a 2nd Gen Cybertruck acually do involve a giant casting machine for injection molding the entire hull of CT2, then that process will be done somewhere near the foundry, were they will have easy access to the still molten steel.

Port Arthur and the surrounding industrial area also makes large tanks for the oil industry. SpaceX is planning to build Starship like a water tower (tanks built from loops of steel).

I put my money on the Houston area, specially near the port for logistics.

When Elon hinted about Texas and with his previous Mordor tweet my first thought was Houston. Mainly due to it being the heart of oil country and proximity to share SS between Starship and Cybertruck.

 

[JustMe]

When Elon hinted about Texas and with his previous Mordor tweet my first thought was Houston. Mainly due to it being the heart of oil country and proximity to share SS between Starship and Cybertruck.

Yep - Houston has advantages of being a major port and industrial center - Every chemical you can imagine is produced there.

There are occasional hurricanes that can cause disruptions or worse.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Read Regulation SHO under Rule 204 – Close-out Requirement. Penalties for Broker Fails to Deliver:

If the position is not closed out, the broker or dealer and any broker or dealer for which it clears transactions (for example, an introducing broker)[9] may not effect further short sales in that security without borrowing or entering into a bona fide agreement to borrow the security (known as the “pre-borrowing” requirement) until the broker or dealer purchases shares to close out the position and the purchase clears and settles.​

Key Points About Regulation SHO

so, they will be forced to stop shenanigans, but no real penalty, like fines or jail time, right?

 

[sdtslafan]

Time to short Tesla?

Love this old video of Mark Spiegel from 2016...IT IS SO FUNNY!

Every prediction is diametrically opposed to what eventually happened.