Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

Or the Taycan has horrendous efficiency in the non-highway portions of the test. The Car and Driver article indicated most of their driving was at highway speed, not stop and go.

Now that I think about it IIRC, in the Car and Driver comparison they said they missed the one-pedal-driving of the Tesla when they were in the Taycan, as it had barely any regenerative braking. So that would lead to bad efficiency in city driving.

 

[Compton]

There was another test done by nextmove in Germany which supports that thesis: at 94mph peak/80mph average on the Autobahn, Taycan against Model 3, starting with a full battery and completely draining it. Model 3 did 332 miles, Taycan 314 miles. That is only a 6% difference.

View attachment 509496

So 6% less range with a battery that is ~25% larger?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

So 6% less range with a battery that is ~25% larger?

The Taycan has a 25% larger battery but also weighs 25% more than the 3 (~5,200 lbs vs. ~4,100 lbs).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Man! That CNBC segment with Mark Spiegel didn't age well!

A few people here make impassioned pleas that we shouldn't discuss what Mark Spiegel says or does because he is a nobody. But I think he's fair game as long he is getting airtime on national networks.

As time goes on, there is no doubt that he looks more and more stupid, too stupid to be managing anyone's money. On the bright side, at least if your name is not "Mark Spiegel", he manages less and less of other people's money as time goes on. Most people become more successful as they age and gain experience. Not Mark Spiegel. Every year that goes by establishes his place in history as a bigger idiot than the year before. He couldn't find his way out of a cardboard box. Every year that passes proves his analysis was not worth the paper (or even the computer memory) that it was written on. Moore's Law cannot solve this fundamental problem as his analysis is becoming less valuable faster than computer memory is declining in price. To be brutally honest, his opinion has a negative value. Anyone who has followed his advice has painfully learned their lesson. As time goes on, more and more people understand just how much of an idiot he has been.

Last night my wife and I watched the movie "Idiocracy" since it was recommended here. Absolutely hilarious! Mark Spiegel would fit right in. If they make a sequel, "Idiocracy II" he might even have a job!

Lol, oh didn't you know? MBS was actually cast for the lead role. He said it would be great to be based in Hollywood for a while, since it'd be an easy 20 min drive visit his parents in Miami. /s

 

[elasalle]

What Tesla desperately needs is battery supply. I'm more interested in how they plan on solving that during the Battery Day briefing.

Battery Day is Show and Tell.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Christmas

Don't know where you grew up, but in this hood, that's called "Pwanzaa".

 

[Dylan]

So 6% less range with a battery that is ~25% larger?

Not to mention 1/3 of the price

 

[HG Wells]

I just soiled myself by reading through a TeslaQ thread. They are forecasting 60-80 k deliveries for Q1. How does that sound?

Well, I could see 60-80 K deliveries for several reasons.

N Korea declares war.
Iran declares war.
Tsunami takes out California.
Spanish Flu returns.
Martian Invasion.

All, entirely possible. /S

 

[Dylan]

Feeling super bullish today, thinking about rolling my ITM LEAPs into OTM calls with closer expiries tomorrow.

 

[avoigt]

Now that I think about it IIRC, in the Car and Driver comparison they said they missed the one-pedal-driving of the Tesla when they were in the Taycan, as it had barely any regenerative braking. So that would lead to bad efficiency in city driving.

There are a lot of reason for the bad efficiency of the Taycan.

Some have been named already but there is more. Its not an easy problems to solve as the Porsche organization is very much fragmented and you need to make everybody a Chief Engineer understanding the key elements of the product to make a difference. in one my recent CT articles I tried to explain that issue.

IOW its not about great engineering its about making sure you built an organization and culture to enable constant improvements which is right now at Porsche simply not existent. Instead they fight against each other calling issue the fault of the other and even hide information from the board hoping problems will solve itself. Guess what, they didn't solve themselves and people may now be fired.

You can expect the Taycan or later Macan to improve here and there but they won't be able to make required huge jumps to even see the back lights of a Tesla. Also I can tell you they have been thrown all they had at the Taycan and we know its falling short on consumer expectations in various areas.

Driving dynamics, race track behavior, acceleration, silence-ness are all great elements but they fall short on the very important key elements of range, cost versus range ration, efficiency, integrated IT infrastructure and a ton more.

Despite its a great and fun vehicle to drive the addressable market is IMO smaller than what Porsche was hoping for. With that in mind and considering them to not have the same pace of innovation simply because they don't have a Battery R&D and they don't have a Maxwell and Hibar to talk just about Batteries I feel strongly that they will fall further behind.

Porsche Management is alerted and they know a lot is going wrong. The question is if they are able to do the right measure to change course. These measure will be very painful as they break with long loved traditions and I doubt that they have the energy to do that.

I predict that at least one additional CEO change is required as Blume does not even understand the fundamentals of a BEV.

 

[Compton]

The Taycan has a 25% larger battery but also weighs 25% more than the 3 (~5,200 lbs vs. ~4,100 lbs).

So are you impressed? I'm not.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.

With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:

"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."

...

"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."

"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
​

While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:

• Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
• Energy storage
• Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
• Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.

TSLA = $4,200 secured?

Does anyone know if, given appropriate energy density, current diesel-electric transport (rail, shipping) can be retrofitted with batteries, but retain the current electric motors? Or is there a power/voltage/amperage incompatibility? Refitting existing hulls and locomotives could be a relatively fast, cost-effective path for transition.

edit: I could imagine the recharging times would be excessive though. Maybe battery swap in these cases.

edit2: CorneliusXX has good thoughts downthread

 

[CorneliusXX]

Listening to the audio in that link...Assemblyman Ryan says Tesla Buffalo is currently running 12 lines with solarglass roofs, solar paneling/equipment, and 'onboard batteries' (which ties to Tesla Automotive).

Hiring: they're at >1100 employees and going to 1400. They have all the equipment and looking to hire to run those lines and are very confident in making the hiring deadline.

This is quite interesting news. However it's difficult to reconcile it with the fact that we have heard of only a few houses having installed solar roofs. Does that mean that Tesla is only producing at testing speeds, stockpiling shingles, or planning on using the shingles for some other purpose (e.g. GF1 roof).

Alternatively, the Assemblyman could be incorrect and those lines may have been for superchargers (which we know are being produced at GF2).

If he is correct about production ramping, we may also end up with a bit of an earnings surprise in Q1, which does not seem to be baked into anyone's forecasts.

 

[hobbes]

The Taycan has a 25% larger battery but also weighs 25% more than the 3 (~5,200 lbs vs. ~4,100 lbs).

Which doesn´t make a difference when driving at constant speeds on the freeway but a huge difference in stop-and-go especially with little or no regenerative braking. Which again fits the picture of a car that is ok for long-distance driving (if there was a good charging network..) but not for everyday use.

 

[hobbes]

So 6% less range with a battery that is ~25% larger?

Yeah, not good efficiency but better than the EPA numbers would suggest.

 

[avoigt]

More negative Analysts help the stock to perform better

 

[Chickenlittle]

The Taycan has a 25% larger battery but also weighs 25% more than the 3 (~5,200 lbs vs. ~4,100 lbs).

Can’t remember which OEM chairman said weight in electric car not important since you get so more regen with increased weight

 

[Off Shore]

Which doesn´t make a difference when driving at constant speeds on the freeway but a huge difference in stop-and-go especially with little or no regenerative braking. Which again fits the picture of a car that is ok for long-distance driving (if there was a good charging network..) but not for everyday use.

Everyday use, for the most part consumes less than ~36 miles, so this inefficiency probably doesn't matter.

 

[Driver Dave]

Time to short Tesla?

Love this old video of Mark Spiegel from 2016...IT IS SO FUNNY!

Every prediction is diametrically opposed to what eventually happened.

I feel so bad for the people who sold or didn't buy based on this guy.

I feel so happy for the people who where able to buy or buy more because guys like this kept the price down.

 

[kbM3]

Now that I think about it IIRC, in the Car and Driver comparison they said they missed the one-pedal-driving of the Tesla when they were in the Taycan, as it had barely any regenerative braking. So that would lead to bad efficiency in city driving.

Which doesn´t make a difference when driving at constant speeds on the freeway but a huge difference in stop-and-go especially with little or no regenerative braking. Which again fits the picture of a car that is ok for long-distance driving (if there was a good charging network..) but not for everyday use.

Taycan regenerates when using the brake pedal, so that’s not a factor in its low speed inefficiency.