Chickenlittle
Banned
I bet GF3 is the same cost as GF3
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Thanks for your work pulling together all these details, it really gets the speculative juices flowing.Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.
With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:
"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:
...
"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."
"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
TSLA = $4,200 secured?
- Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
- Energy storage
- Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
- Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.
If they do want to create a solution for shipping, they may be able to use a modified megapack structure. Leave the motors and inverters in the ship, then uses the megapacks via a battery swapping process with the cranes that are already at port for containerised shipping. This would allow several efficiency gains for the process:
- Container ships could optimise their carrying capacity by only loading enough megapacks to get them to their destination, leaving more room for cargo on shorter trips.
- Ports could charge the megapacks at a slower speed than required to charge multiple ships at the port fast enough to not slow down turnaround times, this has two advantages:
- Slower charging of cells reduces the wear on the megapacks, leading to a longer lifespan and greater earnings potential of the asset
- Ports would not have to install as high a capacity electrical infrastructure leading to lower infrastructure costs. High power infrastructure costs are already a drag on the rollout of vehicle charging locations so It's likely to have the same effect at ports.
Why do you see shipping times reducing? Increased power from an electric powertrain?
In the same vein as mentioned above. Potentially trains could drop in megapacks on a couple of railcars to provide the energy for each journey, again using existing infrastructure to switch them out as required. The would just need to modify the cars and megapacks to allow quick energy connections. It's likely only a matter of cost until this is done.
dgodfrey
Member
Who are we to argue their targets?
Their predictions last quarter been berry berry good to me.
Let’s run with those for now, what say you.
70k it is.
/s
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Because with diesel the higher speeds are prohibitively expensive - while with EVs you can charge them much cheaper so you can "invest" much more power into moving faster, while still being much less expensive than air cargo.
Container ships are consuming an incredible amount of bunker fuel per day:
The higher transit speeds are not only resulting in higher cargo fees, but in much higher throughput and better capital utilization as well: ships are expensive.
While skillfully executed, I have to imagine that the attempt to stop Tesla's rally by the naked short selling of 2M shares was an act of desperation. As it turned out, the 3 following days of intense trading provided ample opportunity to cover (at a profit no less), but the manipulator(s) could not be sure of this and had to take the risk of having difficulty to cover.
No one likes to be robbed of their money. And having seen Oracle's licensing terms, I could very well imagine that especially Larry Ellison felt this was too much and that he will try to use his influence to see that this will at least not happen again. How exactly that is supposed to happen is beyond me, but as more influential people get screwed over by market makers manipulating the Tesla SP, I have to imagine that something will happen.
In reality it should be trivial for the SEC to both learn who dumped the 2M shares - and who at the same time had that headline appear momentarily on Marketwatch - and who the following morning dumped shares on that small, German exchange.
I wonder what Tesla's battery cost curve has been historically and if these advancements are just in line with their earlier predictions or if the new Maxwell tech accelerates that curve.
Arguably, even if battery costs are reducing at a constant percentage rate, the reductions now are far more important than years ago when pack costs dropped from (e.g.) 40k per vehicle to 28k per vehicle because even after the drop Tesla still couldn't sell midrange vehicles at a compelling price point. This next 30% drop is incredibly important for selling vehicles in the $20k-$30k range, which will drive EV adoption astronomically.
My broker called at about the $850 and rising point and asked what I was going to do. I replied that the value was not even one tenth of what it would be a few years down the road, and that there would be plenty of ups and downs in-between.
I don't believe Musk is quite ready to invade mars yet, but 60-80K deliveries to mars would probably count as an invasion.
That's quite an amazing difference. A 10k+ TEU ship would spent roughly 250% more on fuel to only increase speeds by(25/17) 47%. The industry does sound ripe for electric disruption.
It is odd one man could be so wrong....on so many points.
What a strange way to spend a life.
Most analysts who issued new sell ratings didn’t do so because they have become more negative on Tesla’s future, on the contrary. They did so because they believe that after tripling in half a year, SP has gone up too much, more than the improved outlook for the company warrants. We ofcourse disagree. Most analysts are always late to the party, they are only good at predicting the past.
OT
But it’s amazing how a few years of shorting TSLA makes a difference comparing to how he looks now.
They say when you are 20 you are not how you looks, but when you are 40, your face will show your heart.
In deed... in deed...
I don’t usually comment people’s appearance and I won’t stretch to say he was good looking back then.
But it’s amazing how a few years of shorting TSLA makes a difference comparing to how he looks now.
They say when you are 20 you are not how you looks, but when you are 40, your face will show your heart.
In deed... in deed...
Take me to school on something regarding Tesla production. Does the factory produce cars for multiple markets at the same time or is it limited to for example, European versions for awhile, then Canadian, then American, then British etc. It just seems “the wave” is ongoing. Very few cars available in North America now as they build for Europe, very few cars available in Europe because they haven’t arrived yet etc. Just wondering if this timing has the making of a “tough” first quarter as Elon predicted. I would imagine the German factory will help this a lot as should the Chinese factory.
Thoughts. ???
Thoughts. ???
"Predicting the future is very hard, because it has not yet happened"- allegedly Mark Twain
TSLA is doomed to be misunderstood for at least a decade since it is devoted entirely to the future. Securities analysts are ill-equipped to cope with futuristic perspectives. Actually every single analytic tool used in the securities industry or elsewhere makes the explicit master assumption that observing the past can predict the future. That works very well when external events do not intervene. It does not work at all when the modeled boundary conditions change.
I have posted on that subject and provided copious documentation. If we really understand that fact we can quickly understand why very intelligent and well-intentioned people totally miss what is about to happen, while students observing discontinuities can see them as obvious.
The previous paragraph explains how the superb engineering common in Germany fails to understand non-technology and even high energy physics- those inherently probabilistic but specifically unpredictable characteristics make gigantic progress possible while creating insurmountable barriers for many highly capable people. AI is replete with things that seem to be the "infinite improbability principle" but are not. Classical mechanics are yielding to quantum chromodynamics, in a way.
Bluntly, understanding how the current technological revolution is advancing is largely impossible for old-school people to understand.
Buying TSLA is buying the future. The shorts of the world are very wealthy but see the future as a pipe dream. rejection of anthropomorphic climate change is one absolute clue.There are others. Thus buy TSLA, ignore the shorts, act on volatility if you can and wish to.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
The really sad thing about this post is that you actually have to label this as sarcasm. LOL!
Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.
With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:
"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:
...
"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."
"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
TSLA = $4,200 secured?
- Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
- Energy storage
- Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
- Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.
Should energy storage costs become several times cheaper — the marriage of solar power and energy storage will disrupt electric utility business models.
Making Sense of Demand Charges: What Are They and How Do They Work? - Renewable Energy World
The basis of commercial and industrial “demand” charges is the requirement for utility to have available the generation, transmission, and distribution facilities to meet momentary demand.
Consider the Anheuser-Busch brewery in Van Nuys California. An industrial facility comprised of pumps and their associated motors. Electric motors require significant inrush currents upon startup. Startup demand loads place significant demand on the utility infrastructure; utilities charge handsomely to meet that demand.
While I am not privy to this particular facility’s equipment nor their strategies for reducing reducing demand; consider parking lots filled with solar canopies married to energy storage (several times cheaper); with energy storage profiled to reduce or eliminate utility demand charges.
I see this development disrupting electric utility business models. I’m going to have a couple of beers today. In the future our beers will be a little greener. Happy Saint Patrick’s day.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
To get the best return on battery electric ships, you want high speed. You want to maximize the number of charging cycles per year.
1970’s porn star haircut. I’m not sensing a tremendous amount of self-esteem here.
For commercial shipping, you are probably right. For something like the luxury cruise industry (admittedly smaller) the ships rarely travel at their maximum speed, but the economics absolutely depend upon rapid turnaround (a matter of hours).
I have the feeling that luxury cruising may be a large initial market for megapack-electric propulsion.
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