Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[S3XY]

I’d like to make the drive from Seattle north on Alaskan Highways through British Columbia into Alaska. A beautiful drive, nothing short of adventure. To do it in my Tesla would be epic. If I could it in a new Cybertruck...I would die a happy man.

This would be one of the main reasons I reserved a Cybertruck. Long scenic drives in retirement. I'm hoping for some good third party camper add-ons too. I'm thinking something attached to the vault, not towed.

 

[S3XY]

Thanks for helping us understand what happened last week, and the machinations behind the curtain.

But, what do we can this event? It wasn't really a short squeeze: MMs were shorting like demons throughout.

It's not a liquidity crunch: there were PLENTY of shares for sale, mostly sold short.

So, what do we call it when this MMs-options-delta-hedging-share-purchase-exponential-feedback-loop occurs next time?

Cheers!

MM Peanuts?

 

[Snerruc]

There was another test done by nextmove in Germany which supports that thesis: at 94mph peak/80mph average on the Autobahn, Taycan against Model 3, starting with a full battery and completely draining it. Model 3 did 332 miles, Taycan 314 miles. That is only a 6% difference.

View attachment 509496

Km not miles. Both were about 180-190 miles.

 

[Open Interest]

Nice! One thing that might turn off semi-knowledgable people is her claim that "Tesla has the best battery technology". Because you might know that Tesla has Panasonic making their batteries in the USA for cars made in America and they will be buying batteries from LG for cars made in China. I wish she would clarify that "battery technology" extends far beyond the individual cells. A car "battery" is a collection of cells (much like an artillery "battery" is a cluster of armaments under centralized control).

Tesla's technology battery lead to date is primarily speaking to the pack level (the physical end electrical design and construction) and also the software control of the pack. It manages charging, discharging, pack cooling and heating to extend battery lifetime, etc. This is very valuable stuff that can't easily be copied without reverse-engineering the software and fully understanding what Tesla was trying to achieve. But people who only know enough to be dangerous to themselves constantly repeat that Tesla doesn't have a lead in batteries because they simply purchase their batteries from others.

Is there a thread about battery technology that someone can recommend? I would like to understand this better, but every time I go searching through other threads I get lost there, lose hours, and never find what I’m looking for.

 

[Hock1]

The lead litigator of the SEC who was pushing those bull-sugar confrontations left the SEC last year (to be corporate lawyer at a Koch Industries linked utility company - it's a small world! ), so maybe the current SEC administration has different views about short-and-distort campaigns and blatant violations of regulation SHO.

Also, President Trump said this about Elon Musk recently:

"You have to give [Elon Musk] credit," President Trump tells @JoeSquawk. "He's one of our great geniuses, and we have to protect our genius."​

Maybe the current SEC administration will take this as policy instruction and will start protecting Tesla investors - not just Tesla anti-investors?

Or, since there's an election at the end of this year, the next administration might investigate these incidents more thoroughly. I heard neither Sanders nor Warren has a particularly favorable opinion about current Wall Street excesses ...

The problem with any light being shined on these manipulative practices is 1) Hardly anyone, who isn't using these practices, knows what is actually happening, particularly politicians. 2) The people who do understand, the manipulators, are not about to kill the golden goose. There are a few inconsequential people, like myself and several others on this board, and others elsewhere who do understand but don't have the entree to the right people. All we can do is continue to enlighten all who will listen. Sort of like spreading the word on Tesla: It's a complex story but eventually there will be a tipping point.

 

[elasalle]

https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-germany-coal-power-20190126-story.html

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy

over next 19 years

 

[jerry33]

This would be one of the main reasons I reserved a Cybertruck. Long scenic drives in retirement. I'm hoping for some good third party camper add-ons too. I'm thinking something attached to the vault, not towed.

That looks as if it will be an option when you purchase.

 

[dc_h]

There are a lot of reason for the bad efficiency of the Taycan.

Some have been named already but there is more. Its not an easy problems to solve as the Porsche organization is very much fragmented and you need to make everybody a Chief Engineer understanding the key elements of the product to make a difference. in one my recent CT articles I tried to explain that issue.

IOW its not about great engineering its about making sure you built an organization and culture to enable constant improvements which is right now at Porsche simply not existent. Instead they fight against each other calling issue the fault of the other and even hide information from the board hoping problems will solve itself. Guess what, they didn't solve themselves and people may now be fired.

You can expect the Taycan or later Macan to improve here and there but they won't be able to make required huge jumps to even see the back lights of a Tesla. Also I can tell you they have been thrown all they had at the Taycan and we know its falling short on consumer expectations in various areas.

Driving dynamics, race track behavior, acceleration, silence-ness are all great elements but they fall short on the very important key elements of range, cost versus range ration, efficiency, integrated IT infrastructure and a ton more.

Despite its a great and fun vehicle to drive the addressable market is IMO smaller than what Porsche was hoping for. With that in mind and considering them to not have the same pace of innovation simply because they don't have a Battery R&D and they don't have a Maxwell and Hibar to talk just about Batteries I feel strongly that they will fall further behind.

Porsche Management is alerted and they know a lot is going wrong. The question is if they are able to do the right measure to change course. These measure will be very painful as they break with long loved traditions and I doubt that they have the energy to do that.

I predict that at least one additional CEO change is required as Blume does not even understand the fundamentals of a BEV.

I think Porsche will be important for the VW group. Having a special forces division, very engineering and performance focused will allow them to change faster then a big brand like VW or GM.

 

[EV forever]

https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-germany-coal-power-20190126-story.html

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy

over next 19 years

Better late than never!
Plus, they will quickly conclude that running renewable energy plants is cheaper than coal plants and these plans will accelerate!

 

[hobbes]

https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-germany-coal-power-20190126-story.html

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy

over next 19 years

This was news 1 year ago, Jan. 26, 2019... Just saying.

 

[haid]

If naked short selling is common, why is this not the subject of a class action lawsuit? There has to be some sort of penalty for this behavior. The aggrieved party is anyone who has their shares eligible for borrowing. I would think naked shorts not only deny someone the cost of share rental, but also depress the borrowing price by reduced demand. Sue those who abuse the privilege. And maybe sue the SEC for not enforcing their rules.

 

[loquitur]

He also lead the design of the current AMD Zen architecture (Ryzen and Epyc processors) which have pretty much given Intel a run for its money every since they hit market in 2017. Thanks to Keller's brilliant design, AMD's market share is at a 7 year high.

Yet, both AMD and the Zen microarchitecture Wikipidia page say that Senior Fellow Michael Clark is credited as Chief Architect of Zen. Keller was an early "team lead". This is not to say that he was a mere engineering manager -- he likely was a key individual contributor. The patents would sort this out. Likewise for Tesla, Pete Bannon (Apple A5-A9) was lead architect, with sources like Electrek.co hinting that Keller's role was reduced due to industry non-compete agreements.

 

[gerebgraus]

Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents

The implications are the new cells might be 40mm diameter by perhaps 70mm long, with an energy density of 320Wh/kg, and a price well under $100/kWh. Of course, it may all be BS.

Assuming this is true what will happen to the Panasonic cell plant within Giga Reno? The current contract with Panasonic runs through 2023 for an outdated battery cell production. The details of contract are not public. I assume that it has some clause for early termination, meaning Tesla can pay a ~$B or so to terminate the contract early. (hopefully in installments running through 2023.)

 

[Stone_Watcher]

New to the forum and something just started to ring alarm bells in my head. On Tuesday my broker (TDAMERITRADE) was no longer allowing its customers to use their day trade buying power to trade TSLA. This was around 10 AM PST when this happened. It seems extremely suspect looking back on it. Did they know something we didn't about the impending drop?

 

[Curt Renz]

New to the forum and something just started to ring alarm bells in my head. On Tuesday my broker (TDAMERITRADE) was no longer allowing its customers to use their day trade buying power to trade TSLA. This was around 10 AM PST when this happened. It seems extremely suspect looking back on it. Did they know something we didn't about the impending drop?

Welcome to TMC.

Are you a day trader?

 

[KarenRei]

Km not miles. Both were about 180-190 miles.

Vs. ABRP's auto-collected real-world data from a wide mix of vehicles and owners:

180-190 miles range at an average of 80mph makes no sense. These aren't cars being driven in "controlled conditions"; these were just random people who had ABRP active when driving down the highway.

I have to admit, I find it really weird how auto magazines manage to extract abnormally poor performance from Teslas when comparing them. :Þ

 

[KarenRei]

Assuming this is true what will happen to the Panasonic cell plant within Giga Reno? The current contract with Panasonic runs through 2023 for an outdated battery cell production. The details of contract are not public. I assume that it has some clause for early termination, meaning Tesla can pay a ~$B or so to terminate the contract early. (hopefully in installments running through 2023.)

Nothing will happen with it. The world will have a shortage of battery cells for quite some time to come.

Just like everyone was asking what would happen with the 18650 supply when Tesla started making 2170s. The answer to that was: nothing. It was extra supply. They used it to make extra vehicles.

That said, if the new cells are 2170 format and make for better vehicles, and they can get enough capacity to do so, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panasonic production get entirely moved over from automotive to Tesla Energy.

 

[hobbes]

Vs. ABRP's auto-collected real-world data from a wide mix of vehicles and owners:

180-190 miles range at an average of 80mph makes no sense. These aren't cars being driven in "controlled conditions"; these were just random people who had ABRP active when driving down the highway.

I have to admit, I find it really weird how auto magazines manage to extract abnormally poor performance from Teslas when comparing them. :Þ

It might make a difference that it is cold in Germany at the moment, 7 deg centigrade and both cars had cabin temperature set to 18 deg.

Nextmove is *not* a car magazine. It is a small rental company with a youtube channel that only rents pure EVs (actually pretty much everything that is on the market in Germany including Teslas). They don´t get money from ads. They did get the Taycan for this test from a Porsche dealer but that is it. IMHO they are as trustworthy as it gets.

 

[rsm287]

There's a new cut of the Third Row podcast with Elon that combines parts 1 and 2 and is meant to include cuts never seen before. Haven't watched it yet (it's 3hrs 35min!) so don't know whether there is anything extra to be learnt. Edited to add: The only change I've noted so far (at 30 mins in) is much better audio.

Third Row Tesla Podcast – Elon Musk's Story - Director's Cut

 

[hobbes]

Nextmove says they have insider info on the start of the new, increased German EV rebate, should start in 3-4 weeks.
So in time for at least for end-of-Q1 deliveries.

(Skip to 4:38)