Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

I didn't think Mick Jagger did all that many bad things.

You been around Mick?

 

[hacer]

(pay a handsome dividend, that is).

Right. And - do you know what the short interest was for GE right up until the time it almost completely suspended dividends? Quite small.

This is one reason that buying puts its a far better strategy than shorting for betting against a dinosaur (ancient, dying) company. The put owner has no obligation to pay any dividends. Instead the stock price generally falls on the ex-dividend date (it certainly should in any rational market). That is good for the put owner, not bad.

 

[Opus BC fan]

You don't need an advisor but you get them anyway.

My once annual interaction with them reminds me of the days I had to go through a dealership to buy a car.

 

[TrendTrader007]

WSJ Subscription required:
The Agony of the Tesla Bears: $8.4 Billion of Losses in Five Weeks

Summary:

• Fred Lande closed his short position at a loss: "Someone could go buy a brand new Toyota Camry with the loss that I took,” said Mr. Lande, who frequently trades for his personal account and runs a chat room for retail stock traders.
• “Oh damn, I got my butt kicked,” was the thinking, said Robert Majteles, a private investor who rode Tesla’s swings up and down for years before being forced to close out his bearish position last week. “It’s the biggest set of losses that I’ve ever taken in 20 years.”
• Tesla has become one of the most popular stocks to trade ever.
• "Bears point to how Tesla has never posted an annual profit and has previously missed numerous financial and production targets. They note Mr. Musk’s penchant for overstatement, including an infamous 2018 episode in which he claimed to have lined up funding for a buyout, leading to a Securities and Exchange Commission settlement that temporarily stripped him of his chairmanship. They say other car companies will likely catch up to Tesla’s strides in electric vehicles"
• "Mr. Chanos, who said Tesla’s recent profits can be attributed to its sales of tax credits, rather than earnings from car sales, said he won’t end his short positions despite recent deep losses. People close to the matter said his bearish Tesla position amounts to about 2% of his firm’s portfolio."
• "Other funds burned by Tesla’s rally include Lakewood Capital Management and David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, The Wall Street Journal has reported."
• "Amy Wu Silverman, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets who recommends derivatives trades to clients, said she has been fielding calls from clients trying to predict how high the stock might go. “There’s obviously a cult identity around” the company, Ms. Wu Silverman said. She has personally bought bearish put options on the stock, contracts that have sunk in value as the stock has continued its climb. “Tesla is my widowmaker,” she said.

Yes, thank heaven that naked short selling was banned:

View attachment 509744

these idiots have no freaking idea how much pain $tsla longs have been through in the last 6 years- some of us have put our entire net worth in this stock and watched it melt down to near-nothing before resurrection. these morons are crying over a several thousand dollars of losses-big deal. DO not play this game if you can not handle the losses. i have personally taken several millions of dollars of losses several times between 2014 through 2019. at one point in 2018 i had a position of 43,000 $tsla shares as an individual investor with over $7 million on margin and i never ever cried or shed a tear running over to tell my story to idiots at WSJ when i lost big. now i am back in the game with 100% of my portfolio in $350 June 17, 2022 $tsla calls and more than recovered everything and have daily swings of several millions thanks to the wrong bets placed by $tslaq. they will continue to pay me for the next several months because while my pain maxed out and ended in June 2019 when i lost 75% of my portfolio but still held on for dear life - these idiots are just starting to feel the pain that i felt and believe me it is far from over for them. for longstanding $tsla super-longs the best is yet to come and for $tslaq the worst is yet to come

 

[S3XY]

For commercial shipping, you are probably right. For something like the luxury cruise industry (admittedly smaller) the ships rarely travel at their maximum speed, but the economics absolutely depend upon rapid turnaround (a matter of hours).

I have the feeling that luxury cruising may be a large initial market for megapack-electric propulsion.

I just took a cruise through the sounds of New Zealand and the one thing that annoyed me was the exhaust from the ship obscured part of the view. I was taking panoramic photos and would either have to include the smoke or cut the panorama short. A Battery Electric cruise ship would be awesome. Like you said, the charge time would be the issue. Port stops are generally 4 to 8 hours and the time between the end of one cruise and the start of the next is about 12 hours. I would also think it takes a lot of energy to move those things especially when there's strong head winds. There is also a lot of energy use by the passengers, lighting and music in the clubs, ovens for the dining rooms, washers and dryers for laundry, etc. These things are essentially floating cities.

 

[sundaymorning]

Bethany McLean on Twitter

Wait, she’s a Tesla fan now?

pretty she’ll find a way to run it into a wall and blame it on autopilot.

 

[Foghat]

Who is going to sign a big contract for cells with the majors if they know their cars don’t sell?

If the majors are cell starved now, how are they going to compete with Tesla without their own factories?

How are they going to pay for all the gigafactories and make money off falling ICE sales?

We are heading toward some major, major industry implosions. It’s just knowing when and how rapid.

 

[sundaymorning]

• "Mr. Chanos, who said Tesla’s recent profits can be attributed to its sales of tax credits, rather than earnings from car sales, said he won’t end his short positions despite recent deep losses. People close to the matter said his bearish Tesla position amounts to about 2% of his firm’s portfolio."
• "Other funds burned by Tesla’s rally include Lakewood Capital Management and David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, The Wall Street Journal has reported."
• "Amy Wu Silverman, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets who recommends derivatives trades to clients, said she has been fielding calls from clients trying to predict how high the stock might go. “There’s obviously a cult identity around” the company, Ms. Wu Silverman said. She has personally bought bearish put options on the stock, contracts that have sunk in value as the stock has continued its climb. “Tesla is my widowmaker,” she said.

Yes, thank heaven that naked short selling was banned:

View attachment 509744

Widows all around the world can thank Jim Chanos, David Eihnhorn for their lovely ”advice.”

 

[defc0n]

You could be waiting for years. Tesla’s will need to build enough production capacity, which cannot be done overnight. The new battery tech will probably first find its way to Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster, which judging by their pricing and required battery volume need a lot of cheap batteries. S3XY will probably have to wait. But that’s just my $.50.

that’s why I qualified it depending upon timeline. Similarly, cybertruck may end up stealing my model y purchase. I was going to wait until 7 seat model y was available. If it were 1-1.5 years or something longer than that then I’d hold off. I’m not the type to have a vehicle for only a few years. I’m a 10+ year buyer.

Then again that behavior too could change in the future as transportation gets completely disrupted anyway.

 

[S3XY]

That looks as if it will be an option when you purchase.

That's just a tent. Not a bad idea but I'd want something hard-sided.

 

[Beltsbear]

I just took a cruise through the sounds of New Zealand and the one thing that annoyed me was the exhaust from the ship obscured part of the view. I was taking panoramic photos and would either have to include the smoke or cut the panorama short. A Battery Electric cruise ship would be awesome. Like you said, the charge time would be the issue. Port stops are generally 4 to 8 hours and the time between the end of one cruise and the start of the next is about 12 hours. I would also think it takes a lot of energy to move those things especially when there's strong head winds. There is also a lot of energy use by the passengers, lighting and music in the clubs, ovens for the dining rooms, washers and dryers for laundry, etc. These things are essentially floating cities.

A cruise ship is a candidate for battery electric for many reasons. Unlike long distance container ships that have a diesel connected to the prop directly, almost every cruise ship has electric motors turning the props. Unlike long distance container ships, most cruise ships hop much shorter legs with long times in ports. The average 8 hour stop could charge the batteries in full at a normal C rate. A cruise ship could be equipped with diesels just like they are now, but with batteries as well to do longer trips. On the lower levels, cruise ships have no problem taking very heavy weights as they add to stability. Done right, batteries could pay off in 5-10 years.

 

[S3XY]

Tesla vehicles sell themselves. Always have. Like any superior product unavailable through any other source, they are the winning combination of technology, efficiency, convenient fast charging, future proofing, and ultimate safety together in one unbeatable package. People know a good thing when they see it. No advertising required.

Cybertruck will only increase Tesla's lead in the market, as it brings all of Tesla's signature advantages to the stagnant US Truck market. Texas will soon be awash in space-age Tesla Cybertrucks. They may even have to make some more room. Maybe send some off-planet?

Cheers to the Longs!

P.S. Anybody else planning on participating in a Starlink IPO?

Seems like a no-brainer but could SpaceX vastly increase launch pricing to pull the profits and FCF to their side?

 

[c041v]

The coldest winter days in Vancouver are warmer than the coldest winter days in Texas, and Vancouver does not get the violent weather that Seattle does because it's protected by Vancouver Island.

At the risk of being O/T, the Tesla density in Vancouver is amazing. I work in Coal Harbour and have routinely seen Teslas following each other they are so frequent. I quietly smile to myself as a walk around town seeing the familiar headlights and taillights quietly zipping about. The relative affluence, EV credit and, weather obviously play a large role, but it is very encouraging to see such levels of adoption in a large city.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Unconfirmed reports of resumed production at Giga Shanghai.

 

[3Victoria]

Congrats to Iceland for the Oscar!

 

[JustMe]

A cruise ship is a candidate for battery electric for many reasons. Unlike long distance container ships that have a diesel connected to the prop directly, almost every cruise ship has electric motors turning the props. Unlike long distance container ships, most cruise ships hop much shorter legs with long times in ports. The average 8 hour stop could charge the batteries in full at a normal C rate. A cruise ship could be equipped with diesels just like they are now, but with batteries as well to do longer trips. On the lower levels, cruise ships have no problem taking very heavy weights as they add to stability. Done right, batteries could pay off in 5-10 years.

Fire those that may have missed it - electric ferries are under development and at least one is operating daily ->

This is validating the economics of electric ships at some level. Improving battery tech, scaling and infrastructure investments will grow this market in a virtuous cycle.

Bit by bit the market for petroleum is getting squeezed. For now, it’s scarcely measurable. But the camel’s nose is under the tent and the days of ICE and oil are numbered.

 

[Fact Checking]

Unconfirmed reports of resumed production at Giga Shanghai.

View attachment 509770 View attachment 509772 View attachment 509773

Here's the news report and another photo:

The Business Source on Twitter

Workers can be seen entering GF3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You could add - Tesla turned the dial up to 11 on fun with ludicrous mode, streaming Netflix, classic video games, fart mode, dog mode, camping mode, etc.

<< technology... too much technology to list.

 

[Skryll]

I am, yes. I'm also long TSLA. I tend not to trade stock I'm long on Intra-day but this last week was an exception.

I guess they saved your a$$.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bethany McLean is a delight and allowed to make a few minor mistakes. I hereby declare she gets a pass for her 2019 transgressions!