My impression of the traditional global energy/transportation sector as a multi-decade observer is that it is so gargantuan and intertwined that it distorts the ‘laws’ of economics. I wouldn’t touch it long or short with the proverbial barge pole because I expect it to come apart in an unpredictable way especially given the large number of thumbs that will continue to be applied to the many pertinent scales.
For example, governments will be getting more involved. This will mostly be to little effect, but will mess with the time component of your trade. I’m very interested in and am trying to forecast other opportunities of the transformation and especially new innovations including the timing. However, I’d be very wary of being locked into precise timing — even more so when I know there is likely to be active interference.
The attention and energy required to be successful shorting the traditional players would be better spent on looking for growth opportunities resulting from the transformation, in my view.
This is not to say I would never make a move to capitalize on the death throes of the oil fired economy if I felt I had a true insight. It’s just that it is not something I am hunting for and I would certainly watch my a$$ with such a move.
