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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Saw the Barron’s and another similar article in BusinessInsider (another pro-Tesla publication—sarcasm of course ) this a.m. First off do these guys understand that the Model 3 may be cannibalized by a more expensive Model Y? And that cost savings were made to the Model Y over the Model 3? If the writers don’t get it you’d think Tony would. Secondly, Elon has mentioned cannibalization and does expect the Model Y to be a bigger sales generator than the Model 3 and doesn’t have a problem with it. Where is the critical thinking here? Scary!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, the offical data has been out at NASDAQ for hours:
DATE: 01/31/20
Short Int: 22,752,621
DeltaSht: -2,201,644
By the way, that is the lowest Short Interest for TSLA in my dataset (begins 06/15/18)
TSLA Short Interest stats: (06/15/18 - 01/31/20)
High: 43,626,944
Mean: 32,818,233
Low: 22,752,621
Std Dev: 5,615,104
Mean: 32,818,233
Low: 22,752,621
Std Dev: 5,615,104
Also note the Short Interest data pt has a T-Score of 32 for a Percentile Rank of 4. We conclude there has been significant short covering as of Jan 31, 2020.
Cheers!
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You have to get the "Nostalgia" trim level to get O.J.
Seems we are finally at a price level that is stable for now. With theta and vega breathing down my neck, it was finally time to say goodbye to this last call. Hopefully the premium will continue to drop, I would like some LEAPs at some point before Not-Battery Day in April.
Now I have some MSFT and NVDA calls because it feels so empty without having some options at any given moment. Haha. This might end well or it might not.
Now I have some MSFT and NVDA calls because it feels so empty without having some options at any given moment. Haha. This might end well or it might not.
Be careful! Don't lose that Cayman....
OT... Jack, your comment stuck in my head and is the best counter argument when we hear that "dirty" energy question. It's not the main reason why I'm selling my old 63 Buick Conv. (mostly just not as fun to drive as the Model 3 and maintenance), but I keep thinking these classics have peaked in value.
The great part about it is I'm selling back to my best friend that sold it to me in the 1980's... so keeping it in the family, but I just can't do ICE anymore. He's flying in to pick it up today, and I spent the last hour+ just topping up all the fluids and stuff - yet another reminder of the simplicity of owning an BEV. His name is John Snow (for reals, should I be worried?).
She was a beauty and not so common. Even comes with the Grateful Dead sticker from a Phx Az. concert long ago.
So long Labomba!
pz1975
Active Member
So Ihor was badly wrong yet again (as he is every single time). Please stop posting his short estimates on here (or do with a large caveat) - anyone who even considers trading based on his predictions (guesses) is only going to be misled.
Here is his tweet from Jan 31:
$TSLA short int is $15.55bn ; 24.26mm shs shorted; 18.13% of float. Shs shorted down -2.00mm shs,-7.6%, over last 30 days as price rose +53% & down -861k shs,-3.4%, last week. Shorts down -$5.45bn in January mark-to-market losses; +$163mm on today's -1.05% move
bUt tEsLA iS tHe nEw BiTcOiN bUbbLe
Quite an interesting article in Harvard Business Review, seems fairly balanced overall IMO:
Lessons from Tesla’s Approach to Innovation
Lessons from Tesla’s Approach to Innovation
Talks mostly about strategy and hardware/software implementation. Seems to miss the opportunity to discuss an important distinction between Tesla and legacy companies.....and that is the culture of innovation that's part of Tesla's DNA (willing to take risks; iterating quickly; first principles thinking; constantly optimising etc.) and the different organisational culture/structure (everyone is a chief engineer; anyone can speak to anyone else if it gets the job done quicker etc.).
Lessons from Tesla’s Approach to Innovation
Lessons from Tesla’s Approach to Innovation
Talks mostly about strategy and hardware/software implementation. Seems to miss the opportunity to discuss an important distinction between Tesla and legacy companies.....and that is the culture of innovation that's part of Tesla's DNA (willing to take risks; iterating quickly; first principles thinking; constantly optimising etc.) and the different organisational culture/structure (everyone is a chief engineer; anyone can speak to anyone else if it gets the job done quicker etc.).
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
With the share price dropping over $17 in less than 20 minutes this morning, you probably would have thought yourself crazy to say that last year.
The new "stable" is losing the entire cost of an IPO share in just a few minutes of trading!
That was only the beginning of the run in 2013. It continued at least another 4 month for a further doubling with little retractions. It then went down some before gaining even more!
It's encouraging that the market is shrugging off the NHSTA autopilot review. I wouldn't be surprised if they recommend that the system be set to not allow speeding, but of course I hope they don't. Both tragic cases of user error with the CA department of transportation being the primary fault in one, and the trucker that decided to cross in front of an oncoming car in the other.
I keep looking at the dollar gain and I get excited or concerned, then I remember to look at the %. Oh, just 1%, no big deal.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, Ihor is not "wrong"; he has a "construct validity problem" (the degree to which a test measures what it claims, or purports, to be measuring).
Ihor gets his overnight data from volunteer participants in the market. The fact that this sample consistently disagrees with the canonical NASDAQ data (10-12 day lag) means that those two populations (Ihor vs total market) are treating the dependent variable significantly differently.
Market Makers aren't among Ihor's "volunteer participants", and are behaving significantly differently from Ihor's sample group (go figure)
A smarter man would take Ihor's daily data, subtract his error term, and produce their own daily estimate of the underlying variable...
Yeah, I don't read Ihor's tweets unless I can't sleep. Who doesn't luv a good bedtime story?
Cheers!
The Martian
Member
I can vouch for Tesla's "first principles thinking" DNA. During the first MIC model 3 delivery event, 2 separate Chinese hosts on 2 separate occasions mentioned the first principle. That's how deep the DNA been rooted.
Electrek is hilarious. They have no idea why the car is there, but by there logic, any car spotted outside California = winter testing!
pz1975
Active Member
I agree with what you are saying, but me guessing with a blindfold on at a bunch of numbers around the previously-reported number from 2 weeks ago is just as likely to be correct as his.Yeah, Ihor is not "wrong"; he has a "construct validity problem" (the degree to which a test measures what it claims, or purports, to be measuring).
Ihor gets his overnight data from volunteer participants in the market. The fact that this sample consistently disagrees with the canonical NASDAQ data (10-12 day lag) means that those two populations (Ihor vs total market) are treating the dependent variable significantly differently.
Market Makers aren't among Ihor's "volunteer participants", and are behaving significantly differently from Ihor's sample group (go figure)
A smarter man would take Ihor's daily data, subtract his error term, and produce their own daily estimate of the underlying variable...
Yeah, I don't read Ihor's tweets unless I can't sleep. Who doesn't luv a good bedtime story?
Cheers!
Thus, the "smartest" man would take Ihor's data and throw it in the toilet.
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