Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neezer]

I will add a quote from the article, and the wording in between [brackets] is my addition

Tesla May Lose Money Again on Spending to Fulfill Musk Promises

"(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. probably needs to boost spending early this year to keep growing [wow what an innovative concept!], which could lead to surprise losses [oh, hyper-growth companies can continue to outspend their net income? No way...] from a company that most of Wall Street expects to be profitable [because they're like children, or should we keep foolishly trying to assume they're professionals?] from now on, according to Bloomberg Intelligence [hardy har har] analysts."

 

[rsm287]

Has there been any more birds eye photos of possible Y build up in Fremont? I think analysts are expecting the same slow roll out as the 3 in March but my gut feeling is lessons were learned and is being applied with extreme aggression to eradicate that memory from people's minds.

I'm optimistic that the Model Y ramp will be much smoother and quicker than the Model 3 with all the lessons learnt and something like 75% of parts in common with the 3. The only unknowns for me at this stage are how well the new casting machine (which reduces parts from about 70 to 4 IIRC) is operating and also whether they are incorporating the new wiring (down from 1.5km to something like 100m IIRC) and how well that is going. Once these production innovations are working efficiently it should drastically reduce the number of steps and time to build the Model Y, but I don't know if it's something that will take them a while to figure out and get up to a good production speed or whether they have already done so.

The good thing is that Elon hasn't stated any particular targets for production of the Y (at least not externally).....which means they have some breathing room to ramp up production without all the headlines about them missing targets etc. The only target to meet is the 'comfortably exceed 500,000 vehicles in 2020', which they should be able to easily achieve.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Action on the daily chart is eerily similar to that following the Q3'19 earnings call. Spike upward above the BB, followed by a "rounded bottom". We all know what happened next. Past results not indicative of future performance, yadda yadda, but I'm keeping a watchful eye.

EDIT: On a personal note, I have moved on from anguishing over buying a Model X to anguishing over VIN assignment and a delivery date. Soon to be anguishing over days when I'm not able to drive it because my wife is, instead, I'm sure...

 

[Fact Checking]

Charlie munger made some comments about musk and Tesla.
That coincided with the price break.

Here are Charlie Munger's comments about Tesla:

Charlie Munger, on BYD and Tesla sales divergence: "BYD sales went down because the Chinese reduced incentives to the buyers of electric cars...and Tesla sales went up because Elon has convinced people he can cure cancer."​

Context: Berkshire Hathaway owns a big, 25% stake in BYD ..

Further context, Tesla is now endangering BYD in their home market:

Tesla becomes one of China's top local electric car producers in January​

He was also trash-talking the stock and Elon:

“I would never buy [Tesla] and I would never sell it short...I think Elon Musk is peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time,” Charlie Munger said.​

The Berkshire Hathaway old guard is still seriously underestimating Tesla. Their loss.

 

[StealthP3D]

Charlie munger made some comments about musk and Tesla.
That coincided with the price break.

Don't worry, he's 96 years old. You can expect him to be skeptical that cars powered by batteries are a profitable idea. He's literally a dinosaur defending dino juice.

 

[AlexS]

Here are Charlie Munger's comments:

“I would never buy [Tesla] and I would never sell it short...I think Elon Musk is peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time,” Charlie Munger said.​

The Berkshire Hathaway old guard is still seriously underestimating Tesla. Their loss.

Tesla is threat to BH in many fields.

 

[Krugerrand]

Indeed, no news found, and the macro market is relatively calm. The price and volume pattern over the last hour is not that normally seen when long-term institutions are selling. It appears to be due to short selling hedge funds attempting to push the share price down through the $775, $770 and $765 levels in hopes of triggering cascades of stop limits set by weak longs (largely day-traders).

The strong retail and institutional longs have been holding steadily, and that may be frustrating the hedge funds. Hence they institute a raid in hopes that might earn them a few bucks. This is most easily done when trading volume is relatively light, as is the case today.

This attempt may have now bottomed as dip buyers appear to be taking advantage of the situation. Paradoxically, some of those dip buyers could be the hedge funds that initiated this little dance. Volatility is their lifeblood.

The video on manipulation is primarily for the beneifit of TMC visitors who have not previously seen it.

I can sum your informative post in 4 letters:

SSDD

 

[neezer]

Even with the worse scenario simulation they could do, their ramp-up for the Model Y initially can't possibly be anywhere near as bad as with the Model 3, coupled with:

- learned efficiencies (personnel, assembly hardware, number of parts, etc. required)
- More experienced staff overall
- Smoother output of batteries from Giga Nevada (and Giga Shanghai? Maybe)
- Way cheaper cost of production of the Y out of Shanghai
- apples to apples cheaper mandatory components, such as the wiring harness used in the Y vs the 3 currently
- Way higher staff moral at all levels (speed bump inserted though which was Corona)

I say it'll be hugely impressive how quick they make them and how profitable they'll report to be for even just H120.

 

[Cobbler]

Gali is good!

Did Tesla buy Sillion, Inc?

 

[lafrisbee]

read

I'm optimistic that the Model Y ramp will be much smoother and quicker than the Model 3 with all the lessons learnt and something like 75% of parts in common with the 3. The only unknowns for me at this stage are how well the new casting machine (which reduces parts from about 70 to 4 IIRC) is operating and also whether they are incorporating the new wiring (down from 1.5km to something like 100m IIRC) and how well that is going. Once these production innovations are working efficiently it should drastically reduce the number of steps and time to build the Model Y, but I don't know if it's something that will take them a while to figure out and get up to a good production speed or whether they have already done so.

The good thing is that Elon hasn't stated any particular targets for production of the Y (at least not externally).....which means they have some breathing room to ramp up production without all the headlines about them missing targets etc. The only target to meet is the 'comfortably exceed 500,000 vehicles in 2020', which they should be able to easily achieve.

anytime I coached someone it didn't take em any time to learn a simpler way of doing it.

 

[adiggs]

...

EDIT: On a personal note, I have moved on from anguishing over buying a Model X to anguishing over VIN assignment and a delivery date. Soon to be anguishing over days when I'm not able to drive it because my wife is, instead, I'm sure...

The key is to get two. Then when your wife takes your Model X, you can suffer driving her Roadster instead.

Or maybe - when you take your wife's Roadster, she can suffer with your Model X in the meanwhile. I get confused sometimes

 

[wipster]

Indeed, no news found, and the macro market is relatively calm. The price and volume pattern over the last hour is not that normally seen when long-term institutions are selling. It appears to be due to short selling hedge funds attempting to push the share price down through the $775, $770 and $765 levels in hopes of triggering cascades of stop limits set by weak longs (largely day-traders).

The strong retail and institutional longs have been holding steadily, and that may be frustrating the hedge funds. Hence they institute a raid in hopes that might earn them a few bucks. This is most easily done when trading volume is relatively light, as is the case today.

This attempt may have now bottomed as dip buyers appear to be taking advantage of the situation. Paradoxically, some of those dip buyers could be the hedge funds that initiated this little dance. Volatility is their lifeblood.

The video on manipulation is primarily for the beneifit of TMC visitors who have not previously seen it.

I knew I didn't trust this guy for a reason. Thanks for posting again Curt, nice for a reminder of where and who and how evil lurks...

 

[Joe F]

Charlie munger made some comments about musk and Tesla.
That coincided with the price break.

Is Charlie still holding on to his buggy whip stocks?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Don't worry, he's 96 years old. You can expect him to be skeptical that cars powered by batteries are a profitable idea. He's literally a dinosaur defending dino juice.

I don’t think so. Berkshire Hathaway has a large investment in BYD. So they clearly believe in EVs, but they just picked the wrong company to invest in and he’s trying (very unconvincingly) to defend that choice

 

[Remus]

Here are Charlie Munger's comments about Tesla:

Charlie Munger, on BYD and Tesla sales divergence: "BYD sales went down because the Chinese reduced incentives to the buyers of electric cars...and Tesla sales went up because Elon has convinced people he can cure cancer."​

Context: they own a big stake in BYD ..

Further context, Tesla is now endangering BYD in their home market:

Tesla becomes one of China's top local electric car producers in January​

He was also trash-talking the stock and Elon:

“I would never buy [Tesla] and I would never sell it short...I think Elon Musk is peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time,” Charlie Munger said.​

The Berkshire Hathaway old guard is still seriously underestimating Tesla. Their loss.

He is the one invested in BYD and based on his own words he thought BYD would be the world leader in battery based energy storage.

BYD cars have max charging rate of tens of kw. 5 times slower than Tesla cars. With no fast charging network. It's a miracle they sell anything.

I guess it's hard for him to admit he is wrong.

 

[Rashomon]

Gali is good!

Did Tesla buy Sillion, Inc?

Yes, maybe . . .

 

[Curt Renz]

Charlie munger made some comments about musk and Tesla.
That coincided with the price break.

The comments were relatively innocuous and essentially heard before from the Berkshire guys. But they may have excited some short sellers into action, which in turn prompted the algobots of hedge funds to trigger cascades of stop limits.

Eventual inclusion of Tesla in the S&P 500 should suffocate such manipulation. Meanwhile, dip buyers appear to be taking advantage of today's gamesmanship.

 

[rsm287]

I will add a quote from the article, and the wording in between [brackets] is my addition

Tesla May Lose Money Again on Spending to Fulfill Musk Promises

"(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. probably needs to boost spending early this year to keep growing [wow what an innovative concept!], which could lead to surprise losses [oh, hyper-growth companies can continue to outspend their net income? No way...] from a company that most of Wall Street expects to be profitable [because they're like children, or should we keep foolishly trying to assume they're professionals?] from now on, according to Bloomberg Intelligence [hardy har har] analysts."

And what a huge surprise to see that such a FUD article is written by none other than Dana Hull (NOT!)

 

[neezer]

Man, if Tesla figures out a way to truly make this happen, and soon ... even if it's just an annoucement @ Battery Day that they're working on this path ... watch out!

Tesla Might Be Serious About Producing Its Own Batteries

 

[Fact Checking]

He is the one invested in BYD and based on his own words he thought BYD would be the world leader in battery based energy storage.

BYD cars have max charging rate of tens of kw. 5 times slower than Tesla cars. With no fast charging network. It's a miracle they sell anything.

I guess it's hard for him to admit he is wrong.

Btw., his comments also made it rather clear that the big whale investing in Tesla isn't Berkshire Hathaway.

(A big relief to me, those guys are toxic.)