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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Pinned at 800. Goldman and MS guys in midtown NY can go grab drinks and tacos now. Well done.
 
Just to educate us, can you give an example of where it worked and didn’t work for you and what happened? Approx. values for prices...
I can give you an example from a newbie options trader. I sold my first 2 puts last Friday morning when the SP was in the 740s, after dropping from the 900s on Tuesday. I decided if it dipped further, I wouldn't mind buying 200 more shares. I sold a $710 put contract expiring 2/14 for $3100 and a $650 put contract expiring 2/14 for $1240. If the SP is below $650 at the close tomorrow I will have to buy 200 shares for $136,000. If it is between $650 and $710 I will have to buy 100 shares for $71,000. If it is above $710 both puts will expire worthless. In all cases I keep the $4340 premium I received when I sold the puts.

So far it has worked out well, barring a disaster tomorrow.

FYI this is in a margin account. I don't have $136,000 cash sitting there but I have plenty of unused margin if the puts were to be exercised.
 
Fortunately for you, one is not able to sell puts in an IRA account. There will be many on this board, unaware of the drastic ramifications of selling puts at the wrong time, that will be paying for the rest of their lives for failed put sales. Not pretty. JMO.

Selling options can be extremely dangerous. Losses are not capped and can be infinite. Just ask the people who sold calls during TSLA's rise from $180 to $960.

If you aren't an experienced trader, stick to buying options. At least the most you can lose is only 100% assuming you're not TT007 buying options on margin.

I agree with you - my personal rule is not to make big investments with strategies that I don't fully understand. Buying and selling call options is about the limit of my brain capacity to understand - so that is the most risk I am willing to take. I do have a personal investing account that is approved for margin trading, but I only use it for long term trades; the tax implications of short term is not worth the risk. I have purchased TSLA options on margin in that account, but these are very long term - June 2022 @ 1260 strike (lucky number 420 x 3 :p). I would be shocked if TSLA has not reached this price in 2 years. There is more than enough other investment and cash to cover any margin. With call options, it is easy to understand the risk - you lose 100% if your bet is wrong. I have Feb14 1200 options that will expire worthless tomorrow.

I have never even bought put options - I just cannot bring myself to do it. Many people here have explained the strategy of hedging your investment with put options, but to me that is betting against TSLA - so I simply cannot do it. Too superstitious or stubborn, take your pick.


I don't believe this - I just sold off my Feb 21 calls yesterday at market close, thinking Thurs and Fri will be down days, and I can use the cash to add more stock. And today the stock jumps up by $40!!! Missed out on 28K in additional gains:mad:

Even worse, I didn't place any orders to buy more stock since I was busy in meetings all day. So now my account is flush with cash, but the stock has shot up over $800.

Tomorrow better be a red day. So just for 1 day, I am rooting for the shorts and manipulators :eek::eek:

3 disagrees for this, why???? I was just expressing my annoyance at myself for having missed out a buying opportunity simply because I was too busy to check the stock price all day today. Many people here have joked about wanting a lower price to buy more.
 
3 disagrees for this, why???? I was just expressing my annoyance at myself for having missed out a buying opportunity simply because I was too busy to check the stock price all day today. Many people here have joked about wanting a lower price to buy more.

people get a bit trigger happy here with the reaction buttons. Don’t take it personal ;)
 
Apart from the Hyperchange video I haven't really seen it discussed but isn't the change of planned CapEx spending in the 10-K from Q3 compared to Q4 a sure indication that they actually do have plans to invest in something?

Q3 estimate that capital expenditures will be between $2.0 to $2.5 billion annually for the next two fiscal years.
Q4 average annual capital expenditures in 2020 and the two succeeding fiscal years to be $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion.

That's a change of the average from $2.25 billion a year to $3 billion a year. Potentially from $2 billion to $3.5 billion. That's up to $1.5 billion more per year for the next couple of years. Consider that they only spent about $1.5 billion in 2019 that's 50-100% more.

Since the cost of China and Germany should have been clear already when Q3 was released they must be planning something they didn't know they would do for sure 3 months ago.

So yeah, either a new GF earlier than planned or they made the decision to build something huge for battery production.

Can't really see much else they could be spending that kind of money on.

By the way. That 10-K is something like 250 pages. At least the first 130 or so seems to be info that one might find useful as an investor. If I wasn't self-employed I think I would have to quit my job to keep up.

It is sort of unusual as they appear to have done the raise before the investor day(s) explaining why the raise was needed...

The most obvious likely spending expansions are:-
  • GF Texas - Cybertruck...
  • Maxwell battery packs
  • Tesla insurance...
  • GF Berlin / GF Shanghai - accelerated ramp
  • Increase Model 3/Y production at Fremont (not confident on this one)....
Or it could be something else... but they are obviously investing to grow the business..

EDIT:: Tesla insurance spending would be an acquisition..
 
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It’s possible we run up to the previous high close of $887.06. There’s just not a lot of resistance here. Not advice but I’m thinking a lot of folks buy themselves and their sweetheart/significant-other some TSLA stock, before the long weekend, with FOMO in full force. That’s why I picked up a handful of $900s for tomorrow...just in case. Worst case, I’m out a few hundred bucks...
 
It’s possible we run up to the previous high close of $887.06. There’s just not a lot of resistance here. Not advice but I’m thinking a lot of folks buy themselves and their sweetheart/significant-other some TSLA stock, before the long weekend, with FOMO in full force. That’s why I picked up a handful of $900s for tomorrow...just in case. Worst case, I’m out a few hundred bucks...

idk pushing past 810 level was pretty tough today
 
PG&E’s Fire Victims Are Set to Become Its Biggest Shareholders | WSJ.com (15 hrs ago)

Blue sky'ing this here folks, not suggesting what could or should happen:

How much would it cost for Tesla to buy PG&E (the bankrupt NorCal Electric Utility)?

What are the advantages, disadvantages, risks to owning such a utility?

Thanks for your thoughts. All discussion warmly received... (NOT a fire season joke!)

Cheers!
 
It is sort of unusual as they appear to have done the raise before the investor day(s) explaining why the raise was needed...

The most obvious likely spending expansions are:-
  • GF Texas - Cybertruck...
  • Maxwell battery packs
  • Tesla insurance...
  • GF Berlin / GF Shanghai - accelerated ramp
  • Increase Model 3/Y production at Fremont (not confident on this one)....
Or it could be something else... but they are obviously investing to grow the business..

EDIT:: Tesla insurance spending would be an acquisition..
I vote for another factory. Not just because it might be in Texas, but because it gives indisputable evidence of global demand and rapid growth. When was the last time any company broke ground on three new factories within two years?
 
PG&E’s Fire Victims Are Set to Become Its Biggest Shareholders | WSJ.com (15 hrs ago)

Blue sky'ing this here folks, not suggesting what could or should happen:

How much would it cost for Tesla to buy PG&E (the bankrupt NorCal Electric Utility)?

What are the advantages, disadvantages, risks to owning such a utility?

Thanks for your thoughts. All discussion warmly received... (NOT a fire season joke!)

Cheers!

I'm no expert, but my initial reaction is to not touch them with a 100 foot burning power poll.
 
PG&E’s Fire Victims Are Set to Become Its Biggest Shareholders | WSJ.com (15 hrs ago)

Blue sky'ing this here folks, not suggesting what could or should happen:

How much would it cost for Tesla to buy PG&E (the bankrupt NorCal Electric Utility)?

What are the advantages, disadvantages, risks to owning such a utility?

Thanks for your thoughts. All discussion warmly received... (NOT a fire season joke!)

Cheers!

Cripes, then we’d have analysts insisting on valuing them like a classic utility. TSLA to $3!