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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Sorry if this has already been discussed before, but there are just too many messages here to be able to keep up, but what if a competitor of Tesla came with a battery breakthrough, like say lighter with 2000mi on a charge and faster charging, i.e. completely crushes Tesla tech, how would that affect Tesla? I know Tesla cars are more than their range, i.e. with autopilot, FSD, OAU's, infotainment, etc.. but wouldn't that seriously dampen Tesla's potential as an investment?

Lets do a thought experiment. Lets say I make some break through, potential 2000mi car on paper because I developed in a small scale a battery that is 5x denser than Tesla's.

Step 1.

Scale it up, hook a bunch together and see if it'll explode

Step 2.

See if it'll explode under extreme stress

Step 3.

See if it'll explode after the wheels turning at high speed for 1000 miles

Step 4.

See if it'll explode after 300k miles

Step 5.

See if it'll explode if we charge it at crazy speed in extreme temperatures.

See where I'm going with this? Validation for safety will take YEARS. Then there's the question of scaling it up at an adequate cost. This is not one of those things where Tesla is blind sided by some secret battery tech that has been validated for the past 10 years ready for mass production. Elon has a team always searching for the next breakthrough with safety and scalability in mind. I have confidence in Maxwell because they have clearly demonstrated this to Musk with a high probable path to higher density and scalability while the rest you read in science journals fell short.
 
In the call spread strategy, do you always keep the same strike dates for both the long call and short call? Was wondering if selecting an earlier strike date for the long call and a later strike date for the short call would be better?
For the long call, I feel it's safer to have a strike date that's the same or later than the short call's strike date. I don't feel comfortable with the possibility of having a short call and no corresponding long call as a result of it expiring earlier. I really don't like being forced to sell shares or buy back a call at a large premium.
 
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I went 50k on oct 2019 1200s. Think that’s where we are headed here shortly, and if I’m right I turned $3,000 into $1,000,000 this run. If I’m wrong I only got a half million
Um, Oct 2019 would have expired months ago deep OTM so that must be a typo. Or maybe you should see a doctor in case you have a mild brain injury? I hope it's the former.
 
Damn,
The Germany GF4 news makes feel so anxious, plus the NCoVirus thing in China. The SP is going to be horrible Tuesday. My tolerance lower bound is $650
My parents are going to mock me again
Don't you think it could go quite a bit lower? $520? $462? $211?

With my level of anxiety I'm not sure there's even a floor.
 
Single-crystal parts in gas turbines are used as much for creep resistance than anything else; parts where the operating metal temperature is not all that far from the liquidus temperature and are also heavily loaded tend to grow, and that's right into the shrouds for turbine blades. Chocochip is absolutely right that the strongest aluminum parts come from almost the exact opposite of the single crystal process, which tends to require longish solidification. Rather, for aluminum, you would rather freeze the molten alloy as quickly as possible, and get a very fine grain structure without much crystal growth. High-pressure die casting is great for that, but the oxides and porosity that are almost inherent in the process tend to create material properties that are far lower than wrought (forged) properties. But they can be near-net shape and inexpensive, and strong enough. If you want high-strength aluminum castings, google ablation-casting and Alotech. Brilliant process, but not fully commercialized except for heavy truck wheels.
Well somebody has to start, and why not TSLA. They already use waterjets and waterjets can not only wash out molds, but do awesome precise and complex cuts in metals....
 
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If it's drag and losses are so terrible, then how did it match the Model S's efficiency on the closed track scenario? We know it has a smaller battery capacity and even smaller usable capacity but it managed an extrapolated 209 miles for the Taycan and 222 for the Tesla. You may disagree with the testing only using half the battery but that's all we have to go on.

I have no idea what your point is about the 150kph comparison is. The test was run at 75 mph which is fairly typical for road trips.

Yes, that's the guy and the photo you posted is irrelevant to my point. The car's charging speed was gimped from a handful of public chargers that remains a mystery why. However, it doesn't appear to be an issue with the cars battery, charging electronics, or communications.
I don't know what they did to get the model S to have such high consumption. I've made real-world > 220 miles @ 75 MPH in my 75D many times. So I have to think that they let the air out of the tires, or left the windows down, or pulled some other stupid trick to gimp the model S range. Maybe they also had the Taycan drafting behind the Tesla on the oval to help it. Are these the same geniuses that raced the two and couldn't manage to get 1/4 mile times from the Tesla that literally dozens of owners routinely achieve?
 
Sad part is people coming away from this video not realizing that the EV world this video describes sucks because other car makers, dealers and chargers suck.

Tesla EV world is awesome.

TSLA is going to be ahead for quite a while. Maybe forever.

I have a hard time watching such ignorant views on what it's like to live with EV's. I knew it was going to be bad when the narrator mentioned they would get a diverse set of experiences since they were using eight different test subjects in 8 different cities. No mention of eight different EV's in this context? In fact, they said it was not a review of the different cars but rather a look at what it's like to live with an EV (as if all EV's provide essentially the same experience)!

ARRRGG!
 
Is GM pulling out or shutting down?

GM plans to pull out of Australia, New Zealand and Thailand

GM has 828 employees in Australia and New Zealand and another 1,500 in Thailand, the company said.

We’re seeing more and more of these “pulling out” occurrences as Tesla continues to ramp higher, I see Amazon parallels.
They already withdrew from Europe except for a small amount of expensive niche products imported from the US. Their Aussie sales plummeted after they stopped building cars there. It makes sense that building the small amount of vehicles they're able to sell in their remaining RHD markets would be a money-loser. Tesla has the UK to help justify building RHD cars, but GM is gone from there.
 
I’m, personally, hoping the state just splits it up and sells each piece to the cities/counties covered by it. But that’s probably too generally beneficial to actually happen.

In Sacramento we have a community owned utility district which is now very well run. Years ago the board was dominated by PG&E and built a nuke plant, a twin of three mile island. Very finicky thing. We changed the board first and later sponsored a referendum to shut it down. Still houses fuel in storage which has to be cooled forever. Also a prime target for the Russians, say, since the fallout would irradiate all of Salt Lake City.
 
When I said, "When I believe the overall trend of a stock is up, I don't like to bet on it going down. It's better to have the fundamental movement direction on your side if you are going to try to time a stock.", perhaps I should have specified "overall long-term trend" because Tesla definitely has that going for them as they have shown over the last decade and their plans going forward. Of course, that is not guaranteed even if some believe it to be. But the fact that its not guaranteed doesn't negate my comments about preferring to avoid trying to time a stock (by shorting it) when that stock's long-term trend is rapid growth. In other words, don't fight the current.

It's always possible for bad news to slow or reverse capital appreciation of TSLA stock but I wouldn't want to bet that its a sure thing or that I could properly time it if it does happen.

Maybe I've said this already, but I'm not saying the company won't do well and be worth more in the future. Clearly company has a long term historical trend upward and they have more room for being even more highly valued, but the anticipated growth of the company will make the company worth $900 a share for many years. In the mean time the market will reject the over enthusiasm of the current prices and bring it back to a more reasonable number in the $200 to $300 range. All it will take is for the company to miss one quarter. I'm not sure what the expectation is for 20Q1, but that is already shaping up to have issues. Maybe enough to bring back losses, maybe not.

One point that gets ignored a lot here is that while expansion through debt is a good thing in general, it creates risk. If the market/economy starts to slip and people buy fewer cars than Tesla is making in the previous quarter/year, the expenses of making cars can be cut back, but the debt can't. The company can easily go into the red depending on things the company can't control. To reach $900 a share in real value will require not just excellent performance over a number of years, but also the external factors that Tesla can't control. By that time there will be all manner of new competition as well.

In the mean time anything can happen. I would never have said it would peak at over $900. There is just so much irrational exuberance for this company.