Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Kathy should consult our Karen on how to hedge her gains with options.
Instead of selling outright her Tesla position when it exceeds 10%.

Kathy made a crap ton of money with her personal investments. The 10% position is intentional and the reason why people buy funds.

 

[cricketman]

Well, at least it meant the @cricketman was well positioned to invest in Apple. I confess I thought the first iPhone was a joke. Missed it entirely.

Well yes, except that I was 27 years old, had very little money and no knowledge of the stock market!

Hence why 10 years later I decided to invest very heavily in Tesla

 

[Nocturnal]

Just eyeballing the last few weeks, the SP should close the week at $840. But if trading breaks the recent pattern, then....

The sky is the limit on the upside. But below $500 would only retrace about a month of trading. Those of us with options are playing ridiculously high stakes in a game that is clearly rigged. Good luck everyone.

I've been sitting out. I'm still a novice to options and my previous strategy (that gave me returns in the few thousand percent) of buying very cheap calls far out of the money (in the 6-12 month range) and waiting for SP to jump no longer seems viable.

I've considered selling a call covered by my trading shares but even that's too rich for my blood. Maybe....

Well yes, except that I was 27 years old, had very little money and no knowledge of the stock market!

Hence why 10 years later I decided to invest very heavily in Tesla

Bitcoin, Amazon, Apple, Netflix all investments that I discounted or wasn't financially able to take advantage of. I promised myself I wouldn't make the same mistake with Tesla. So far so good.

I loved Amazon early on, and knew the IPhone would be a hit. Netflix didn't click for me until they started offering original programming. I discounted bitcoin early on as a "weird internet libertarian thing". Back then I could have just mined it with my PC and made a boatload. ​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Kathy should consult our Karen on how to hedge her gains with options.
Instead of selling outright her Tesla position when it exceeds 10%.

This has been an enduring mystery to me: why sell your winners instead of letting them run?

@DaveT has the best explanation I've seen to date: ARK Invest has $11.1B in AUM (assets under management) as of Nov 2019. They charge 0.75% management fee for their funds.

The way ARC Invest makes money (as opposed to their clients) is by beating the performance of the S&P 500, thus attracting customers away from passive Index funds like Vanguard. For example if ARC could grow to $13.34B AUM they'd make $100M per year in fees.

That's their underlying financial motivation. They don't make much extra income if the SP goes up, they do that mostly by attracting new investors. For the rest of us Tesla-oriented investors, we're better off buying shares directly.

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

Hmmm. There is a story here I think.

This has been an enduring mystery to me: why sell your winners instead of letting them run?

@DaveT has the best explanation I've seen to date: ARK Invest has $11.1B in AUM (assets under management) as of Nov 2019. They charge 0.75% management fee for their funds.

The way ARC Invest makes money (as opposed to their clients) is by beating the performance of the S&P 500, thus attracting customers away from passive Index funds like Vanguard. For example if ARC could grow to $13.34B AUM they'd make $100M per year in fees.

That's their underlying financial motivation. They don't make much extra income if the SP goes up, they do that mostly by attracting new investors. For the rest of us Tesla-oriented investors, we're better off buying shares directly.

Cheers!

Sure, but let's say they had not been rebalancing this whole time and Tesla becomes 50% of their fund. Why would I buy that fund? If I want that much Tesla exposure I can buy Tesla shares and not pay a management fee.

 

[ABCTG]

CNBC - 2 hours ago:

"Giga Shanghai built in year..



wouldn’t be surprised to see more Tesla Gigafactories in China..



battery costs are falling at a rapid rate..


BEV will be cheaper than ICE in 2 years..



total cost of ownership is already lower..



Elon wishes the Mayors in the US were as tech savvy as the Mayors in China..



China is ALL IN for the movement.."

 

[Mike Smith]

I never knew there were so many Porsche fans - or ignorant people in the world. Read the comments on this article. It's amazing how many people think Porsche has better engineering than Tesla - despite the fact that that the Model S gets 189 more miles of range using the same size battery WHILE still out-performing it.

Elon Musk Calls Bill Gates Underwhelming After Billionaire Buys a Porsche

I like how the media has twisted "our conversations have been underwhelming" into 'Bill Gates is underwhelming'.

 

[KarenRei]

Kathy should consult our Karen on how to hedge her gains with options.
Instead of selling outright her Tesla position when it exceeds 10%.

Unfortunately, the sort of strategies that work well on the retail scale don't inherently work as well on the institutional scale. You can get people to underwrite massive PUT contracts for you, but can't just suddenly put out a bid for ten thousand PUT contracts at an arbitrary strike and just expect some algobot to serve you at a reasonable price. At large enough scales, even stock purchases / sales have to be spread out to avoid paying a significant premium.

Anyway, regardless, ARK is an ETF. People buy it because it's diversified. They have an obligation to people purchasing the fund to stay diversified.

 

[KarenRei]

The price is melting up anyways. I'm really starting to wonder, is there an algo which buys TSLA on Monday and Tuesday and sells Wed/Thu/Fri? I should start timing everything I do. Buy calls Fri, sell them Tue. It works until it doesn't!

Do I count as an algobot?

So when does FAANG turn into FATANG?

FATANG Clan ain't nothing to F' with.

 

[rsm287]

A positive article from Consumer Reports (what's the world coming to? )

Tesla Ups Ante on Model Y Range, Underscoring Its EV Lead

Of course they had to throw in some excuses for the poor range of "competitors"!

 

[Causalien]

Anybody else get this sense of impending doom after pulling off perfect options trades one after another?

Feb 4th sold call at 1020 strike
Feb 6th bought back 1020 strike call
Feb 6th Sold put 560 strike
Feb 6th sold put 660 strike

 

[Nocturnal]

Anybody else get this sense of impending doom after pulling off perfect options trades one after another?

Feb 4th sold call at 1020 strike
Feb 6th bought back 1020 strike call
Feb 6th Sold put 560 strike
Feb 6th sold put 660 strike

I have felt like that since the big run up when I was able to turn a small investment into a very large return, not to mention my share appreciation. I more or less made myself take a break though to avoid overconfidence reverting my returns to the mean.

 

[KarenRei]

Anybody else get this sense of impending doom after pulling off perfect options trades one after another?

Feb 4th sold call at 1020 strike
Feb 6th bought back 1020 strike call
Feb 6th Sold put 560 strike
Feb 6th sold put 660 strike

All I can say is, I'm just reveling in this volatility Buy on the way down, sell on the way up at a higher strike... rinse, repeat Have so far gotten a free upgrade on a third of my sold calls to higher strikes. And this with a very non-aggressive rolling strategy that was designed with the expectations that a dramatically lower SP is in the range of possibilities.

 

[HG Wells]

Anybody else get this sense of impending doom after pulling off perfect options trades one after another?

Feb 4th sold call at 1020 strike
Feb 6th bought back 1020 strike call
Feb 6th Sold put 560 strike
Feb 6th sold put 660 strike

YES, I never have had fewer calls than now.
Must resist buying till battery date announced.

 

[Late2theGame]

So, based on Adam Jonas 'success' with his bear-base-bull $10-$250-$500 price target spread in December (afair) and his 'upgrade' today to ???-$500-$1,200, should we expect 3*$500 or 1.5*$1,200 by May ???

Morgan Stanley raises its ‘bull case’ on Tesla to $1,200

 

[Causalien]

I have felt like that since the big run up when I was able to turn a few grand into over 100k, not to mention my share appreciation. I more or less made myself take a break though to avoid overconfidence reverting my returns to the mean.

Ya. This is what I plan on doing. I don't think I can trade properly when I am overconfident.

All I can say is, I'm just reveling in this volatility Buy on the way down, sell on the way up at a higher strike... rinse, repeat Have so far gotten a free upgrade on a third of my sold calls to higher strikes.

Suffice to say, I cannot trade like you with such firm belief.

YES, I never have had fewer calls than now.
Must resist buying till battery date announced.

It's been like a dream. That and I completely divested my corp's supply chain away from China, an endeavor I started end of 2018 because of Trump's trade war. I want to smile about getting it right, but the images of crying girls who lost her mom and dad in Wuhan kept conflicting with the high.

I think I am on alert because it felt like winning the lottery and nothing good happens to lottery winners.

 

[Drax7]

I don’t buy the Robotaxi

Unfortunately, the sort of strategies that work well on the retail scale don't inherently work as well on the institutional scale. You can get people to underwrite massive PUT contracts for you, but can't just suddenly put out a bid for ten thousand PUT contracts at an arbitrary strike and just expect some algobot to serve you at a reasonable price. At large enough scales, even stock purchases / sales have to be spread out to avoid paying a significant premium.

Anyway, regardless, ARK is an ETF. People buy it because it's diversified. They have an obligation to people purchasing the fund to stay diversified.

a synthetic short for the portion that exceeds 10% with out of the money options may enhance her returns ,moreover
Diworsification is just that.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't know about you guys, but when Nav on City Streets is released, that's my big signal. Yes battery day will likely be good, but the big numbers are based on Robotaxi.

I'm starting to bug my local SC about getting the new FSD computer. I tend to get updates earlier than most and I really want to be able to spend a day playing with that feature before the general public figures it out. If Nav in City works really well I'll probably drastically increase my leverage because to me that will mean that Robotaxis are likely in the near-ish term. If it sucks then I'll probably hold back.

Edit, looks like I'm getting my new FSD computer this week.

So, based on Adam Jonas 'success' with his bear-base-bull $10-$250-$500 price target spread in December (afair) and his 'upgrade' today to ???-$500-$1,200, should we expect 3*$500 or 1.5*$1,200 by May ???

Morgan Stanley raises its ‘bull case’ on Tesla to $1,200

A guy in a trench coat pulled him into a dark alley and told him that Morgan Stanley was done buying TSLA and it was time to let it go up.

 

[Mike Smith]

A positive article from Consumer Reports (what's the world coming to? )

Tesla Ups Ante on Model Y Range, Underscoring Its EV Lead

Of course they had to throw in some excuses for the poor range of "competitors"!

The excuses come from Sam Abuelsamid, the Navigant Research analyst who ranks Tesla in last place among all auto makers in autonomous technology. Interesting that CR considers him a credible source.

 

[SpaceCash]

I like how the media has twisted "our conversations have been underwhelming" into 'Bill Gates is underwhelming'.

He 100% is, though