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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Except for my Twizy. I've chosen LiFePO4 for a DIY battery project because of ~ 10 times higher number of cycles compared to LCO / NMC and a low total cost of ownership, very good long-term properties with low maintenance requirements and a high degree of investment protection and functional safety. But I've just started ... maybe I'll report in a few years ;)
So why do we discount the possibility of LFP batteries being used for energy storage? If Tesla is planning on massive grid stabilization infrastructure for Australia, it makes a ton of sense to source LFP cells from China. That should free up more NMC capacity for vehicles.
 
I watched with fun and delight the price action yesterday. No, I am not a bear quite the opposite but what I have seen is a confirmation to me in a positive change of sentiment where attempts to create fear to press the SP down is loosing its appeal.

The consolidation we experience on the current levels are extremely healthy for a next move near to ATH or above. There may be likely not even a compelling reason for it as long as the down risk does diminish or is at least reduced.

Its also fun because it's so darn obvious how they manipulate to get stay right below $900 with their yesterday attempt and I predict they will try the same today as today counts for them. For me it does not at all therefore my day is quite relaxed. If they achieve their goal today I expect an even stronger counter move Monday.

In the last about 7 weeks depending how you count we have seen $100 step moves including short consolidation at the week end and I really love that. Its much better than every short squeeze scenario I can imagine. Who likes it to shoot up above $1k just to fall down heavily again? Its not me.

The peak we have seen at $969 was manipulated down successfully only to be nullified in the time after. Thats a strong sign of strength on a very high level. I have no doubts that $969 will be tested soon again and may even break but I could imagine that $1,000 will be an emotional resistance for many to buy in and a level others will sell simply because its just a very round number. Stupid but thats how investors work.

My last buy has been at $192 kind of 8 months ago but who cares - it does not matter. What matters is where the true value of the stock is versus how Wall Street does value it today.

The true step change is still in front of us with a NPS gain in the Trillions. Everything between we see today is nice to have but is just because of Tesla valued as an auto manufacturers but in a few years time people will see it as a service provider.

Sounds crazy and unrealistic?

Maybe but read this: Autonomous Ridehailing Could Be More Profitable Than We Had Modeled

Wouldn´t call this consolidation just yet :D... But depends on time scale I guess.

Screenshot 2020-02-21 at 17.57.30.png

TSLA Interactive Stock Chart | Tesla, Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance
 
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I really don't want to get involved into the whole "are LiFePO batteries the right answer for Tesla in China?" because I have reservations either way.

What I DO know is that one of Tesla's main areas of expertise is Li-ion batteries. Which means I'm convinced Tesla will not put off-the-shelf battery cells in cars unless they have a very compelling reason to do so AND the performance of the car (charge rate, discharge rate / power, range, and longevity / no. of cycles) meets their high standards. Or modify those cells so that their high standards are met and the cells fit well in the M3 battery pack.

So I'm preparing myself to be pleasantly surprised, rather than accept the foregone conclusion that it's a bad idea without actually knowing what it is they're planning to do.

A fair portion of this boards discussion is on battery tech, including hibar and maxwell related topics. In the past TMC discussions regarding battery or car production educated lots of us about this topic and helped many of us stayed the course when the share price tanked.

using one sided jabs telling a member to "stay away" is not the sprit of this board.
 
Right now I'm just getting the $110 strike SPY puts, January 2021. They are literally $0.05 a contract, I could buy 1,000 of these contracts and the cost is insignificant compared to the downside protection and if they expire worthless then I get a nice loss to offset my taxes. It's a win-win situation and when the market takes it's inevitable 50% dive I'll get some money back while I ride my positions down and then back up again.

The reason they are so cheap is it's extremely unlikely that SPY will ever be $110 again!
 
Was this ever in question? I'm amazed that there were people out there thinking, "Tesla is switching to LFP as the future of their batteries." I mean, what's next, lead-acid? ;)

Tesla is gobbling up as many MIC cells as it can for GF3, because GF3 is going to need them in huge quantities, long before Tesla can scale its own internal production. Beggars can't be choosers.

Someone please help me out now, is the below tweet considered credible, or not?

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence on Twitter
 
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Third Row is not the source. Here's the first tweet on the subject

Vincent on Twitter

Which is this article:

Tesla Battery Day May Introduce Next-Gen Cobalt Free Non-LFP Cell Hints China

Which cites this from Tesla China:

Tesla-Battery-Day-Cobalt-Free-nonLFP-2.jpeg


If you don't want to trust Vincent's translation, you can use Google Translate :)

I'm just going to drop this here from Sept 2018:

"The project is aimed at developing cobalt-free cathode materials for next-generation lithium-ion batteries. Shirley Meng, a professor of nanoengineering and the director of the Sustainable Power and Energy Center at UC San Diego, is the lead investigator on the project. The team involves Maxwell Technologies, a San Diego-based company that develops and manufactures energy storage and power delivery solutions."

UC San Diego receives award from Energy Department for battery research in advanced vehicle technologies

Is it possible that, a year and a half after that article was written, they've figured out how to mass produce that kind of tech?
 
using one sided jabs telling a member to "stay away" is not the sprit of this board.
I never told you to stay away, neither did I imply you should.

So let me be super-duper-clear: unless you are working at the bleeding edge of research and/or manufacturing in Li-ion batteries (which I'll take a wild guess and say you're not) it's grating to see how vehemently you accuse Tesla of having lost their way if they ever go for LiFePO batteries. The truth is, none of us actually know what they plan to do and how they plan to implement a certain battery chemistry.

But since you are so determinedly against the use of this specific chemistry in the SR battery packs, my logical guess would be that if Tesla goes ahead and actually uses LiFePO cells you'll be selling your holdings, because to you Tesla would have made a fatal mistake. That's how you stated your position, not me. Let's all take a moment and remember how @neroden's frustration with service made him get offensive towards some forum members here and on other threads, and he ended up giving up on Tesla (and likely TSLA). To me, you seem to exhibit some of the same early symptoms. All I'm suggesting is, first let's find out what the whole thing is about and reserve judgment for later.

Now, can we end this topic?
 
If any of you are time travelers from the future when Elon's TimeX company has perfected time travel, would you mind letting us know how Q1 deliveries went? No need to throw off the time space continuum with exact numbers. If they were good just don't reply to this and I'll take that as my sign.

I hear stainless steel construction helps with the flux dispersal
these-are-some-of-the-best-memes-about-the-tesla-cybertruck-official-unveil.jpg
 
Head of Advanced Transport at Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
  1. expects Q1 global car sales to drop by 10-20% b/c of COVID-19
  2. anticipate April earnings season to dent consumer confidence, heading for biggest annual drop in global car sales in a decade
  3. will revise global EV sales forecast for 2020 down – Europe not strong enough to compensate Asia drop
  4. can't tell if auto demand will be deferred vs destroyed. Will know much later in the year.
Colin Mckerracher on Twitter
Beginning to look like a perfect storm is brewing for legacy automakers. Can’t say I’d be sad if this accelerated the opening of more room for fresh growth that we need for the energy transformation.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/perfect-storm-hits-north-atlantic

The Perfect Storm movie review (2000) | Roger Ebert (hmm, maybe I should finally get around to watching this movie :eek:)
 
Someone please help me out now, is the below tweet considered credible, or not?

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence on Twitter

Plausible for the SR. They'd need to have whole engineered modules, not just cells, though. And there'd be a lot of constraints on them. There'd be a pretty significant amount of development work on that contract if so - even the BMS would need to be re-developed. The amount of development work is what made me initially doubt the report.

Cylindrical LFPs would be easier (although still not a drop-in solution, due mostly to the different voltage).
 
Plausible for the SR. They'd need to have whole engineered modules, not just cells, though. And there'd be a lot of constraints on them. There'd be a pretty significant amount of development work on that contract if so - even the BMS would need to be re-developed. The amount of development work is what made me initially doubt the report.

Cylindrical LFPs would be easier (although still not a drop-in solution, due mostly to the different voltage).

In the Third Row Podcast (Director's Cut), Elon said this: "The CATL cells....the CATL situation will be more of an integrated module than it will be a cell".

So it does indeed sound like they may be whole engineered modules.

The relevant battery discussion starts at about 41:38: