Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Something to investigate - talk to IB is what I would do (or any other broke you're interested in) - brokers have an account transfer type of function. I've used it to move positions when I shifted over to Fidelity. The account transfer might just pick up your current account with all of it's positions as is (including the margin debt - this is mostly why you'll need to talk to IB first). No need to convert the positions to cash, and then back to the positions you want.

You might be able to fill out the paperwork for an account transfer, and shift the account from wherever it is to IB (including changing your margin interest payments over to IB's schedule). No taxable events, no conversion into cash and then later back. Just change brokers.

That is advice to talk to IB - I'm not a broker or in the finance industry; I've used an account transfer and it was as easy sounding as I've made it, but I didn't have a margin loan I needed to figure out. I did have stock positions that I didn't convert to cash, and then convert back into stock positions afterwards.

(And I was moving over to Fidelity, but it sure sounded like a standardized industry function - not something special Fidelity did).

in the US, ACATs is the standard for account transfers. so yes, you’re correct. it’s normally very easy, whether partial or full transfer. most of it is automated across brokers, especially when you’re talking about basic tradable securities like stock and options , and cash obviously.

 

[Evoforce]

If I sold everything @ $1,000, I'd be able to retire and live fairly comfortably.

If I sold everything @ $2,000, I'd be able to retire in a way in which I'd never be constrained by money. The only thing I could even imagine spending more money on in my personal life at that point is a bigger house. I have zero interest in jets, yachts, flying 1st class, etc.

However, everyone needs to ask themselves the question why they want to retire. Retirement is basically just freedom in how you spend your time, but with all that newly acquired free time the question becomes: what are you going to spend your time doing now that you're no longer constrained by money?

If your answer to that question is sit around, chill, and sip on Teslaquila at your private island, then that's all good. But I'm only 30 years old, and I know I'd be bored, unhappy, unfulfilled, and disappointed in myself, if I didn't do anything else with my life than make money investing in TSLA.

Money will probably be useful in some of the other things I want to do, so I'm not planning on selling any time soon. I think TSLA is going to at least $10,000 in the next 10-15 years, and although I'll likely take smaller and smaller risks with options in the future, I still plan to continue to increase my share count through long term call options whenever I see good opportunities to do so.

You would have enough time then to read every post in this thread in retirement!

 

[sundaymorning]

Mercedes capitulating to dieselgate?

'Dieselgate' recall of more Mercedes vehicles 'likely'

Investing in these legacy OEM is like playing Russian roulette, you never know how many of them are equipped with cheat devices.

 

[vigleik]

Something to investigate - talk to IB is what I would do (or any other broke you're interested in) - brokers have an account transfer type of function. I've used it to move positions when I shifted over to Fidelity. The account transfer might just pick up your current account with all of it's positions as is (including the margin debt - this is mostly why you'll need to talk to IB first). No need to convert the positions to cash, and then back to the positions you want.

You might be able to fill out the paperwork for an account transfer, and shift the account from wherever it is to IB (including changing your margin interest payments over to IB's schedule). No taxable events, no conversion into cash and then later back. Just change brokers.

That is advice to talk to IB - I'm not a broker or in the finance industry; I've used an account transfer and it was as easy sounding as I've made it, but I didn't have a margin loan I needed to figure out. I did have stock positions that I didn't convert to cash, and then convert back into stock positions afterwards.

(And I was moving over to Fidelity, but it sure sounded like a standardized industry function - not something special Fidelity did).

If transferring the margin loan turns out to be difficult, you could do the following:
1. Transfer half your shares to IB;
2. Get a margin loan with IB and use it to pay off the old margin loan;
3. Transfer the other half of your shares.

 

[Artful Dodger]

(Feb 20) Gigafactory 3 resumes production of 1,000 Model 3s per week

 

[Evoforce]

Here is another way to get more stock. If you have an HSA account, you could invest that with Tesla. In my case, my HSA (health Savings Account) only allowed me to pick from a variety of mutual funds tied to Schwab.

So, I have trading accounts with TD Ameritrade and I found out that their HSA manager is HSA Bank. I am allowed to transfer all but $25 from employer sponsored HSA (Health Equity) to HSA Bank and then directly trade stock with an associated TD Ameritrade account. I can do this any time I build the employer account (Health Equity) above $25 and just deposit by check the overage to HSA Bank that is tied to that TD Ameritrade trading account.

It is a win win win! It reduces taxable employer income. It reduces taxes on stock trading and it allows you to use that money for anything after age 65. You don't have capital gain taxes. Using the money for healthcare (selling stock) you will never be taxed, using it after 65 for anything else it will be taxed like income.

Another thing to consider is that you can only contribute a set amount of money per year in a HSA account. In my situation it is $7000 per year.

As a side note Schwab and TD Ameritrade have a merger so I don't know what changes in the future that may occur.

 

[M3Rider]

Hm, wondering... can you give a hint what you think it might be? Something to do with Autopilot/FSD - do you have HW 3.0 yet? Guess I missed something, as noone else is asking...

It was HW3. I had a sensor issue/warning, scheduled appt and added that I want HW3 to the list of problems .

The wheel with the progress bar I circled is autopilot being calibrated.

 

[FrankSG]

(Feb 20) Gigafactory 3 resumes production of 1,000 Model 3s per week

This is the first time I've seen some red paint MiC M3s!

 

[dc_h]

Things have changed over the past year. Additional available supply and CATL improvements in energy density for LFP (even if they are still worse than NCA or other chemistries). The question now is are they "good enough" to create a pack for SR M3.

Tesla could license or provide assistance to CATL to improve their batteries. It wouldn’t bring them up to Tesla capacity, but get what they need for an SR or Lemur. Tesla can absorb all of CATL’s spare capacity and ramp Shanghai faster and have needed capacity back in Fremont where they say in the Q4 release they’ll have 500,000 3+Y capacity by mid year. Batteries are again the constraint. Exciting to see the progress of resolving these bottlenecks so much faster then the rest of the industry.

 

[dc_h]

Unfortunately (or even fortunately, as this opens up the possibility of better numbers than we are seeing at the moment), most places are black boxes. At least until the end of of the month when at least European countries will report. Just a week to wait...

They are also delivering more cars farther east, so shipping is longer then last quarter by a few days.
it was not clear to me if UK Q1 is supposed to be big, or if tax incentives increased significantly on April 1st. They had a backlog, so numbers should be up from Q4, but once incentives are in full force the UK should take the lead from Netherlands and Norway.

 

[deffu]

I've been paying like 9% margin interest on TSLA for almost 2 years now. I hate paying it but for me it was well worth it since TSLA stock price gained much more. I'm still on margin because I think I'll get higher return than the margin interest I pay. I'm not on full margin anymore like I was last year but that's because the value of TSLA has gone up so much. So my account margin percentages have decreased even though the overall margin debt I owe have actually increased due to me buying even more TSLA shares.

You can call your local TD agent and negotiate a lower rate. I literally experienced the same as you. bought in at 420 tweets. High on margin for the 2 years with TDAmeritrade, a lot of gray hairs at a relatively young age. Since your margin loan is big, TD may agree to give you a better rate. I now pay below 4% overal.

 

[Buckminster]

(Feb 20) Gigafactory 3 resumes production of 1,000 Model 3s per week

Confirmed by Vincent:

Tesla Giga 3 Shanghai Soon Achieves 12K Monthly Production, Number Will Gradually Rise Supply chains back to 60-70% production, Zero case of Coronavirus in Shanghai Lingang & more Video of GF3 production lines

Vincent on Twitter
Video here:
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0...d.mp4?&autoplay=0&loop=1&playlist=DgryOEVr2PI
Shows some nice details of the production line.

 

[Tslynk67]

I agree. I went through tremendous amount of personal stress. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. Being on maxed margin like that is rather foolish and super risky. Logic says I should've wiped out many times. 50% loss is 100% loss on max margin and like I said I was down to like $5k at the worst point. I'm still amazed that I survived that 2019 Q1 and the period after. So I got real lucky. You don't know how many times I just wanted to sell everything and just walk away. The mental games your mind goes through when you're holding such concentrated position and full margin is insane and regular people have no idea the pain and anguish it can cause. Even small daily movements can scare you. All I can say is the MMs are very good at what they do. So when you sold your position during the crazy drop after $968, I could relate. That's why I wrote I somewhat understood what you were feeling and went through. We all went through hell and back to get to where we are today. So I take nothing for granted and appreciate everyone on this board for their contributions and educating me every day. I haven't told anyone in my life other than my family about my Tesla position. And that's not going to change, and I plan on keeping it a secret.

I have about $270k still on margin so not all 1,300 shares and 2 ITM calls are fully mine. And I have small number of Virgin Galactic (SPCE) shares and small number of 2/29 $1,200 lottery ticket calls in this account as well. So that's why it's showing less than 1,280 million. I'm just happy to have kept it above $1 mil the past couple of days so I could keep my promise to my wife. I know she was disappointed being Tesla millionaire for only half a day last time even though she won't admit it. My goal is to eventually eliminate the $270k of margin debt and keep 1,500 shares margin free. I would love to get to 2,000 shares margin free but that will take lot of risk or luck. And at this point I want to be little more conservative with my plays. My original goal was 1,000 margin free shares.

If you started with $100k and transformed this to $1m then that's pretty impressive, but I couldn't personally go through that. All my shares are bought without margin, all sold calls and puts covered.

Two different approaches, but we probably arrived at roughly the same point though, my initial investment was around $70k, but added to this in chunks of $5k - $10k several times. Main difference for me is that I bought the first 350 shares in Feb 2016, so my initial starting price was half of yours - I know we're always talking about how timing trades with Tesla is pointless as it will $X000 in a few years, but in this case that made a huge difference.

 

[Fact Checking]

Two days ago one of the most important and most watched Chinese state TV channels had a prominent segment on Tesla and GF3:

Jay in Shanghai on Twitter​

There's now a translation by a Twitter user on what was said, and there's quite a few interesting nuggets to investors:

• Tesla started working since Feb 10.
• All lines are fully working.
• 2,000 workers (600 newly employed).
• The government provides 10,000 masks, more than 600 rooms for workers.
• Moreover, all companies providing essential materials to Tesla are also working.

Another tweet also said:

• "To make things easier for customers, @teslacn favors #Model3 home deliveries. New protocol requires all vehicle to be disinfected before being handed over to new owners."
• "RayTesla️ on Twitter"

This should address reluctance by Chinese customers to take delivery at a crowded delivery center.

This is huge news IMO:

• The second GF3 shift was also hired, which would double their production.
• The end of December GF3 group photo showed less than 1,000 workers, so the ramp-up is in full swing.
• The Chinese side of Tesla's supply chain was specifically brought up early on February 10 while still about half of companies were shut down due to the statutory quarantine "vacation".

Presumably this also means that they switched to a 2-shift utilization of the factory: 8+8 hours, with 8 hours left for maintenance, on 5 or 7 days per week.

Based on this information I'm now more bullish about Q1 GF3 production and deliveries. In particular the early February hiring of the second shift should help them ramp up.

Edit, there's also this fresh GF3 production data from a Chinese government official:

Breaking: Tesla Giga 3 Shanghai Soon Achieves 12K Monthly Production, Number Will Gradually Rise

Sun Xiaohe, Chief of the High-tech Industry and Technology Innovation Division of the Management Committee of Lingang New Area said, "Tesla Gigafactory 3 Shanghai is expecting to achieve 12,000 monthly production rate soon, and the number will gradually rise."​

12k/month is 3k/week and 144k/year, very close to the 150k/year milestone already.

A bit of a perspective of how huge this is: last summer Adam Jonas was projecting just 35k-40k GF3 sales in China, for the whole of 2020:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

How many units of Model 3 would you expect Tesla to sell in China on a full year basis by 2020/2021?

We expect 35-40k units for 2020, and 60k units for 2021.​

At 12k/month they'd meet that in just a little over 3 months...

If they can reach this in February and sustain it in March then even some of the more bullish GF3 estimates for Q1 I've seen here will have to be raised significantly.

 

[kengchang]

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-19.pdf

Model 3 outsold Accord and Corolla in California in 2019. Just 3495 units behind Camry.

 

[Fact Checking]

(Feb 20) Gigafactory 3 resumes production of 1,000 Model 3s per week

Note that the 1,000/week figure is likely just a repeat of old data - Jason Yang is doing drone videos primarily, his English captions are usually summaries of known headlines.

More recent leaks suggest a substantially higher current GF3 production rate of beyond 2k/week, with 3k/week to be achieved "soon" according to a Shanghai government official.

Many shorts are counting on bad Q1 results - which might not materialize.

 

[lklundin]

I got something today.
View attachment 513966

Btw, the install time is super encouraging. I'm not going to disclose, as apparently there's some competition going on between the service centers.

However, it is not yet being installed for everybody who comes in; they have some prioritization plan they're working through; the line is based on the vehicle purchase date.

Isn't that also the progress "bar" the car displays while the Autopilot is self-calibrating?

 

[Fact Checking]

12k/month is 3k/week and 144k/year, very close to the 150k/year milestone already.

A bit of a perspective of how huge this is: last summer Adam Jonas was projecting just 35k-40k GF3 sales in China, for the whole of 2020:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable​

How many units of Model 3 would you expect Tesla to sell in China on a full year basis by 2020/2021?​

We expect 35-40k units for 2020, and 60k units for 2021.
​

At 12k/month they'd meet that in just a little over 3 months...

In fact at 12k/month GF3 production rate Tesla would in just 8 months surpass the Adam Jonas GF3 sales estimates for the entire 2020+2021 time frame ...

And Tesla wants to ramp significantly higher than that...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

All we need to know now is what ‘soon’ means in China. A few weeks or a few months?

The video of the busy production line is encouraging. The fact that the workers are wearing masks shows it was shot recently.

 

[Green46]

I
I took out the $40k lifeline money I added back in June 2018 and gave that back to my wife. That was her money, and I'm very grateful she gave me the money in my time of need. She's been awesome throughout this whole process. When I asked her the other day what would happen if something like June 2019 happened again, and she said we started with $100k on this account so we would just be back to where we started. She said we were fine then and we would be fine again. I love my wife.

Our investing scenarios are very different , but even in my case my wife saw much more clearly than I what should have happened during the low of 2019 (ie invest more), even though she has no idea what Tesla is doing.

While I was worried (newbie), she was like buy more, without even giving it 10 seconds of thought. Lesson learned.

So true that emotional control is way more important than the science behind investing.