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But unfortunately there still are some uncertainties:

- Two suppliers are back to 50 and 60% of their previous production capacity, according to the report. Will this be a bottleneck limiting output of finished cars in the short term?

- Are they getting enough packs from GF1? And if so, will that cannibalize Model 3 production in Fremont (which for now probably has better margins) or even limit the acceleration of Model Y production? Carsonight, who seems to have good sources, indicated stable battery pack production, not a significant increase.

They're making packs locally. They're not buying from other suppliers for the fun of it. Tesla started local pack production in December. In January, for the Shanghai plant, Panasonic provided the cell supply for 1,545 vehicles/ 83.32 MWh, with LG Chem supplying for 1,050 vehcles / 54.39 MWh.

八万顷新能源汽车工作团队周报 2020年W6 一、行业信息 1)2020年1月,新能源乘用车批发4.3万辆,零售达到4.12万辆,相对于2019年1月份的走势大幅下降... - 雪球

People need to take what carsonight writes about China with a massive grain of salt. He openly has admitted that he has no clue what happens to GF1 packs once they leave the plant, and has no insights into China at all. Anything he says about China is purely his personal speculation, and he really should make more of an effort to point that out. :Þ

(Not to mention that last year he was claiming that Tesla was stockpiling excess GF1 packs in China)

Even what he says about GF1 production should be taken with a grain of salt. Remember what he was saying in Q1 '19?
 
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Imagine if our superheroes got together to form the Avengers...

Supervillians.
0E0C0E79-6ADD-4677-B947-8FC4F8AB60EE.jpeg
 
If you started with $100k and transformed this to $1m then that's pretty impressive, but I couldn't personally go through that. All my shares are bought without margin, all sold calls and puts covered.

Two different approaches, but we probably arrived at roughly the same point though, my initial investment was around $70k, but added to this in chunks of $5k - $10k several times. Main difference for me is that I bought the first 350 shares in Feb 2016, so my initial starting price was half of yours - I know we're always talking about how timing trades with Tesla is pointless as it will $X000 in a few years, but in this case that made a huge difference.
We all have different risk profiles, goals, and life circumstances. I wanted to share my story because I'm sure there are others like me who went through some really difficult periods after the funding secured tweet and then Q1 2019. This is a long journey and we're in this together. Some of us will get off earlier than others. No one said this would be easy or without lot of bumps and bruises. But I made up my mind early on I'm in this for the longterm and I 100% believe in Elon and his vision with Tesla.

My focus remains on number of shares I hold rather than the dollar amount. Like Elon, I want to accumulate as many shares of Tesla as possible. The price is going to take care of itself over the long run.
 
They're making packs locally. They're not buying from other suppliers for the fun of it. Tesla started local pack production in December. In January, for the Shanghai plant, Panasonic provided the cell supply for 1,545 vehicles/ 83.32 MWh, with LG Chem supplying for 1,050 vehcles / 54.39 MWh.

八万顷新能源汽车工作团队周报 2020年W6 一、行业信息 1)2020年1月,新能源乘用车批发4.3万辆,零售达到4.12万辆,相对于2019年1月份的走势大幅下降... - 雪球

Sorry about being obtuse - but how did you calculate those specific split of production from that website? I cannot see any of those numbers there, but maybe I'm blind ...
 
But unfortunately there still are some uncertainties:

- Two suppliers are back to 50 and 60% of their previous production capacity, according to the report. Will this be a bottleneck limiting output of finished cars in the short term?

- Are they getting enough packs from GF1? And if so, will that cannibalize Model 3 production in Fremont (which for now probably has better margins) or even limit the acceleration of Model Y production? Carsonight, who seems to have good sources, indicated stable battery pack production, not a significant increase.
Quick sell your shares -again
 
I believe in Tesla....I just didn’t believe in the market.

We were being assailed by unscrupulous shady types with deep pockets. We’ve had big oil shorting our stock and fear-mongering retail investors since poor little Tesla looked like it might actually live back in 2013.

We are nowhere near appropriate retribution for the last 8-10 years of pain inflicted on individuals who want nothing more than a batter world for our kids and grandkids. In that vein, the share price is NOT overvalued. We should have been at the current price a year ago. We should have been at last month’s price 3 years ago.

Big oil’s prima nocta is over and the villagers are ready to live like we should have been living several years ago. This parabola is making up for the straight line growth we’ve been denied due to downright felonious manipulation.
 
'"It is likely that in the course of the ongoing and/or further investigations KBA (Federal Motor Transport Authority) will issue additional administrative orders holding that other Mercedes-Benz diesel vehicles are also equipped with impermissible defeat devices," the manufacturer wrote in its annual report.'

Or, you could (just spitballing here) admit to what you’ve done and help the authorities, rather than warning investors you’ll probably get caught. :confused:

A richly deserved fate awaits.
Wow what a mistake. I don’t pretend to be in public relations but once caught they should have admitted entire issue. Another round of recalls and admitting more extensive cheating. Will we see another restatement of guidance?
 
Thanks. I'll talk with IB and also TD Ameritrade and see I can get slightly lower margin rate. But my plan is to get off margin completely sometime this year.



I contacted them before, but I didn't get a callback. But hearing about your positive experience, I might reach out to them again. Thanks.

It’s outrageous they charge you 10% margin rate. It’s risk free for them too. Contact another brokerage ask them what’s the best rate they can offer. Tell them your account is one million and carries quarter million margin.

Not only the new brokerage will offer you much lower rate, very likely they will offer you a big check.

Then you contact your current brokerage, find out who is your rep. If you just ask a random guy, he doesn’t care if you leave or not. Your rep cares. Talk to him nicely, don’t threaten, don’t ask for a rate cut, just tell him you plan to move to another brokerage (don’t tell which one). He will ask you why. Tell him the other firm offers 5% margin rate plus bonus check. He will at least match the rate. Send me a message if this doesn’t work.

In long term view, every dollar you saved today will turn into 10 dollars. It’s a big deal to cut down margin rate as soon as you can.
 
There's a new, longer video about last week's production from the Chinese Central Television:


At several points the assembly lines can be seen moving at about 5-10 cm per second. Can anyone here find a trick to try to estimate the exact speed of those lines, and the distance between the cars? The interesting timestamps are:

0:28, 0:37, 0:42​

There's even a time-lapse of several cars being made, but we don't know the time-lapse speedup ratio. :oops:

That would give us an idea about peak production capacity: for example if it's moving at 5 cm per second and the cars are 800 centimeters apart, then they'd make 1 new car every 800/5 = 160 seconds, which means a peak production rate of 22.5/hour, 360/day on a double shift and 2,520 cars/week if they were working 7 days a week.

Of course this gives us a peak rate: in a real factory there will be line stoppages, shift changes and other disruptions, so the real sustained production rate will be below the peak. But those video segments all contain the very interesting peak production rate encoded already, and there might be some trick to extract it?
 
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I live close to a GM plant and have taken tours just for my edification. Their largest North American plant maxes out at nearly 700 cars per day. The line moves consistently but is occasionally stopped for various issues that a lead line operator is well-versed in addressing fairly quickly. The vehicles produced are mostly Acadias that have a length of 193.4” or 491.2 cm. I think extrapolating off an observed line speed is an interesting visual to discuss.
 
But unfortunately there still are some uncertainties:

- Two suppliers are back to 50 and 60% of their previous production capacity, according to the report. Will this be a bottleneck limiting output of finished cars in the short term?

- Are they getting enough packs from GF1? And if so, will that cannibalize Model 3 production in Fremont (which for now probably has better margins) or even limit the acceleration of Model Y production? Carsonight, who seems to have good sources, indicated stable battery pack production, not a significant increase.

He has since upped this to 60%-70%. I’m with you, I’m awaiting more clarification...
 
At several points the assembly lines can be seen moving at about 5-10 cm per second. Can anyone here find a trick to try to estimate the exact speed of those lines, and the distance between the cars? The interesting timestamps are:

0:28, 0:37, 0:42​

At 0:27 the video has 27 images spanning half the lower line of the door handle with a fixed camera. I think that lower line of the door handle measures 17.3 cm (I wish I had one in my garage but I am holding TSLA instead) thus half is 8.65 cm in 27img/30img/sec = 0.9 sec.

Thus 0.0865 m / 0.9 sec = assembly line speed of 0.1 meter per second would be my guess.