Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Did you listen to Tesla Daily with the Analyst interview? Seems that battery investor day is to show a roadmap to this 50% yoy growth, 1.2 million cars by 2023. So this is the expectation, to see how Tesla can overcome battery constraints.

Anything beyond this he mentioned that credibility will probably not be given much because if supply outstrip demand (say Tesla can surprise and guide for 2 twh by 2023), he sees this as a potential negative because it's a strain on operating cost and there won't be enough demand to use all this 2twh of batteries by 2023. So I think the power train part is exciting, but the battery part is somewhat being priced in. Anything beyond is not going to be seen as a positive for the short term according to him. So it's something to be mindful about.

So production beyond what the analyst see as potential EV adoption by 2023 is not going to move the stock much. But if the price drops below $100/kwh, then perhaps stock will go bonkers.

I'm only interested in the Energy side of Battery Day, the car story is already beyond amazing and on autopilot. Excited to hear any new math on large stationary storage tech or product enhancement. New pricing and/or sizing for Powerwalls? Integrated solar/storage/(maybe auto?) products with new pricing.

Don't know what's coming, but I'm fairly sure there will be at least a few jaw droppers on the Energy side. The economics of renewables+storage vs. anything legacy gets more and more stark every day. A "million mile car" is great, have we thought enough about what a cheap battery with tens of thousands of cycles can impact the domestic US PPA pricing and financing of utility scale solar+storage?

All these folks that have flooded into TSLA over the last 2 months are the same folks who used to write quarterly checks for frackers and will now be starving for renewables projects to finance. Laying out sick figures for them will be quite stimulative for Energy deal volume and TSLA. How many nails in how many fossil/nuclear project coffins will come from Battery Day? I predict a LOT.

 

[Nocturnal]

So shouldn't ntsb be saying "thanks to Tesla AP, guy playing on phone lived much longer than if they were in any other car".

They briefly mentioned the safety benefits. Devil's advocate though, people are less likely to play games in a regular car.

The only real solution is to continue making Autopilot safer and train truck drivers not to just cross the road when they feel like it because they assume other cars will stop for them.

I'm only interested in the Energy side of Battery Day, the car story is already beyond amazing and on autopilot. Excited to hear any new math on large stationary storage tech or product enhancement. New pricing and/or sizing for Powerwalls? Integrated solar/storage/(maybe auto?) products with new pricing.

Don't know what's coming, but I'm fairly sure there will be at least a few jaw droppers on the Energy side. The economics of renewables+storage vs. anything legacy gets more and more stark every day. A "million mile car" is great, have we thought enough about what a cheap battery with tens of thousands of cycles can impact the domestic US PPA pricing and financing of utility scale solar+storage?

All these folks that have flooded into TSLA over the last 2 months are the same folks who used to write quarterly checks for frackers and will now be starving for renewables projects to finance. Laying out sick figures for them will be quite stimulative for Energy deal volume and TSLA. How many nails in how many fossil/nuclear project coffins will come from Battery Day? I predict a LOT.

A major increase in battery supply would mean a lot of potential to actively sell those large battery projects. ​

 

[Subhuman]

So shouldn't ntsb be saying "thanks to Tesla AP, guy playing on phone lived much longer than if they were in any other car".

This is the truth though. As mentioned up thread, thousands of people commute to work each day while looking at their cellphones. I would much rather have this person use autopilot than not. Fact is autopilot makes the road safer, not less safe.

 

[gluu]

What are your thoughts on Renaissance buying not being a vote of confidence in the stock, but a covering of a large short option position? I tend to think they were covering vice buying for appreciation. It seems odd they would buy in bulk during a rapid rise in price.

As far as I know Rentech does not do options market making. The other large 'hedge fund' that does what you describe is Susquehanna, but it is otherwise known as 'delta hedging'. They are arbitraging sold call options against the stock, by making a market in the options market and at a favorable price relative to the stock.

 

[Lessmog]

The impossibility of it is precisely what would give Tesla the upper hand.

"Infinite impossibility drive" -- hmm, that has a certain ring to it, hmm?
Will the shoe fit though?

 

[azaz]

SPY broke 315

 

[KarenRei]

I just realized what's really bugging me about this. It's set up like a courtroom, except that nobody is allowed to speak on behalf of the "defendant". It feels like a kangaroo court. Every time they make a ridiculous statement, it automatically goes unchallenged.

 

[AlexS]

SPY broke 315

scary

 

[Nocturnal]

WTF? This lady is using this place as a point to soapbox about wages? Terrible logic in any event. If more people HAVE safety systems then that's preferable to fewer people having less than perfect systems.

Anyway, am I the only one expecting a Giga Austin announcement in the near term? Elon is spending a lot of time in Austin.

 

[lascavarian]

What about passengers, what about trains and buses... I think you and NTSB need to think things through a bit first

Nope, thinking is not the problem. The problem is killing people through enabling distracted driving and that is directly related to the carriers. It is up to them to be responsible for the fatality of their product. They are free to develop carrier methods that solve the distracted driving problem related to their product. No one stops them from doing it.

They need to do it or be sued out of existence by the families of thousands of people killed by distracted drivers using a carrier service as designed. Designed to be used in a moving vehicle.

 

[gluu]

Thank you for the information, that is bullish.

But since RenTech (Renaissance Technologies) published this information, are they still in as of today?

Sure they are good at what they do, but publishing the information now, does not have to mean,
they are in for the long run. As I learned, they also do really short term trades.

Or do you mean, that they only invest this big amount of money for their long term Investments?

I have no idea if they are still in as of today. If I had to guess, I would say a significant portion of that position has been offloaded near the highs of 900+.


The way a quant model works as that there is a short term target price, let's say Rentech made a forecast that said in 3 weeks from 12/20/19, the stock price will be 750, while the the price on 12/20/19 was 420, they will keep loading on on Tesla stock and rebalance their portfolio while the price is significantly below 750 up until they find better opportunities for their capital. Let's say 3 weeks pass and their new forecast for 3 weeks out still says 750, but the stock price is now 900, then they would begin selling. The buying they do starts moving the current price towards the stock price. To buy that much stock means that they were willing to move the price a huge amount but STILL expect a significant return on the even the highest purchased price, which means that the stock was highly undervalued. If a stock was only slightly undervalued they could only take a much smaller position due to this 'market impact' of their buying.

 

[Fact Checking]

They briefly mentioned the safety benefits. Devil's advocate though, people are less likely to play games in a regular car.

Distracted driving is illegal, and if you hurt others it's a crime in most jurisdictions.

Why does the NTSB not focus on benefits to law abiding Tesla owners who are using their car responsibly? Isn't that what should be the sole consideration for policymakers?

 

[Sudre]

Her argument actually defended keeping autopilot in place since it reduces accidents, hence making people safer than those without autopilot.

 

[Buckminster]

Vincent on Twitter
Taiwan boatload.

 

[UCF3]

SPY broke 315

@UnknownSoldier how those puts looking?

 

[Tslynk67]

This is so simple. The carriers are the responsible ones. They know the devices are in moving vehicles and they can act on that knowledge but they don't. They are responsible IMO and have been for these thousands of deaths related to distracted driving.

Actually no. We, the drivers are responsible. We should simply not operate mobile devices while driving.

It's now the law in Belgium (in line with Germany, I believe) that you no longer need to be proven using a device while driving, holding the device assumes use. This is a step in the right direction.

Not that it seems to have much impact though, a high %age of the drivers I observe while cycling to and from work are on their phones.

 

[Sudre]

Why is this guy talking about drones. I am at least once a month in a situation where a drone is over my head and might land on me. I guess they should ban all drones since that is regulated and people still do it.

 

[Buckminster]

What is a vehericle?

 

[jerry33]

No one is going to buy it because that just means legacy auto makers conceded to Tesla in manufacturing process and power train prowess. These legacy makers were built on being competitive around race tracks trying to build a pedigree. Even Toyotas had rally cars. They would rather die then to buy everything from Tesla.

FIFY: They would rather die then to buy anything from Tesla.

 

[Nocturnal]

Distracted driving is illegal, and if you hurt others it's a crime in most jurisdictions.

Why does the NTSB not focus on benefits to law abiding Tesla owners who are using their car responsibly? Isn't that what should be the sole consideration for policymakers?

Yes and no. If a driver doing something improper is "reasonably foreseeable" then you are in a tough spot if somebody performs that action and you didn't take reasonable actions to prevent that.

Even if Autopilot is safer in the net (which I firmly believe), you still risk some liability/regularity risk in the above scenario. Now, that really is a legal argument. Is it reasonably foreseeable that a driver plays a mobile game while driving on Autopilot? I'd argue no, but expect some to argue the opposite. I don't see anything immediate that Tesla can or should do to keep people from abusing the system.

An example is airbags. They were far safer in the net, but dangerous with small passengers/children in the front seats. So over time airbags were tweaked to accommodate that. (I assume based on NHSTA feedback and guidance) I'm not claiming that anything will come of this, I just want folks to be mindful that not everyone will agree with us, right or wrong.