TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm only interested in the Energy side of Battery Day, the car story is already beyond amazing and on autopilot. Excited to hear any new math on large stationary storage tech or product enhancement. New pricing and/or sizing for Powerwalls? Integrated solar/storage/(maybe auto?) products with new pricing.Did you listen to Tesla Daily with the Analyst interview? Seems that battery investor day is to show a roadmap to this 50% yoy growth, 1.2 million cars by 2023. So this is the expectation, to see how Tesla can overcome battery constraints.
Anything beyond this he mentioned that credibility will probably not be given much because if supply outstrip demand (say Tesla can surprise and guide for 2 twh by 2023), he sees this as a potential negative because it's a strain on operating cost and there won't be enough demand to use all this 2twh of batteries by 2023. So I think the power train part is exciting, but the battery part is somewhat being priced in. Anything beyond is not going to be seen as a positive for the short term according to him. So it's something to be mindful about.
So production beyond what the analyst see as potential EV adoption by 2023 is not going to move the stock much. But if the price drops below $100/kwh, then perhaps stock will go bonkers.
Don't know what's coming, but I'm fairly sure there will be at least a few jaw droppers on the Energy side. The economics of renewables+storage vs. anything legacy gets more and more stark every day. A "million mile car" is great, have we thought enough about what a cheap battery with tens of thousands of cycles can impact the domestic US PPA pricing and financing of utility scale solar+storage?
All these folks that have flooded into TSLA over the last 2 months are the same folks who used to write quarterly checks for frackers and will now be starving for renewables projects to finance. Laying out sick figures for them will be quite stimulative for Energy deal volume and TSLA. How many nails in how many fossil/nuclear project coffins will come from Battery Day? I predict a LOT.