Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singer3000]

Tesla has reported that they already have exceeded their hiring goals in Buffalo (1500 jobs in Buffalo + 300 more statewide v. 1460 required),

According to the NY State Department of Labor: "Tesla has indicated it will hire as many Panasonic employees as possible going forward."

Jack Sterne on Twitter

Do they have a lot of baristas and shoe shiners in that factory? I can’t imagine it takes 1,500 people to churn out a couple of dozen super chargers per week and single figure solar roofs. Mysterious mysterious this “company talk” from Buffalo is.

 

[azaz]

in house cell production at giga ny?

 

[FrankSG]

erm:

"In 2024/25, working cash flow allows up to 7 more GFs to bring the total over 20 (placed as needed; capacity reaches 10-20M veh/year). Sites could include Brazil, India, Japan as desired"​

Oh haha. Not sure if I missed that part or if it was edited in later, but yes, India!

 

[MC3OZ]

Do they have a lot of baristas and shoe shiners in that factory? I can’t imagine it takes 1,500 people to churn out a couple of dozen super chargers per week and single figure solar roofs. Mysterious mysterious this “company talk” from Buffalo is.

Time travel machine it is....

Or maybe making energy storage batteries .... for time travel machines....

 

[larmor]

Do they have a lot of baristas and shoe shiners in that factory? I can’t imagine it takes 1,500 people to churn out a couple of dozen super chargers per week and single figure solar roofs. Mysterious mysterious this “company talk” from Buffalo is.

Being that Niagara was the site of Nikola Tesla‘s generator maybe they’re using the gigafactory to make tinfoil hats for wireless energy transmission – – just saying.

 

[powertoold]

in house cell production at giga ny?

Odd place to have in-house cell production (unless they're also doing semi production at NY). It needs to be at Sparks.

 

[EinSV]

Do they have a lot of baristas and shoe shiners in that factory? I can’t imagine it takes 1,500 people to churn out a couple of dozen super chargers per week and single figure solar roofs. Mysterious mysterious this “company talk” from Buffalo is.

In Buffalo, Tesla makes solar panels, solar roof plus electrical components for storage products and superchargers.

Glad to hear that, as expected, they beat their hiring target ahead of schedule (as they did with the initial target) despite endless FUD from short sellers and their friends in the press.

 

[Sudre]

This is about solar cells, not battery cells.

From the article, “In addition to the partnership on solar cells, Panasonic and Tesla's tie-up on electric-car batteries appears to be at a crossroads as well. Panasonic CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga said there are "no plans at this time" to build an automotive battery plant in China”

 

[Singuy]

Do they have a lot of baristas and shoe shiners in that factory? I can’t imagine it takes 1,500 people to churn out a couple of dozen super chargers per week and single figure solar roofs. Mysterious mysterious this “company talk” from Buffalo is.

Didn't they report supercharger roll out will be massive in China this year? Also I don't know what you mean by single digits solar roof as their goal was 1k/wk by the end of 2019.

 

[MC3OZ]

Odd place to have in-house cell production (unless they're also doing semi production at NY). It needs to be at Sparks.

My guess semi at Sparks..

Energy storage cells and packs made at NY,,,,

This frees up cell capacity at Sparks for Model 3, Model Y and Semi..

Energy storage battery transport to the East Coast and Europe is easier...

Probably better to also add energy storage production in China for the Asian market.

 

[generalenthu]

I hope you are right about 5 years but the politics in India are toxic beyond reason. Things are so fragmented, petty and corrupt it's truly heartbreaking. Diversity and "democracy" can be very good things, but India's divisiveness and internal feuds keep the government (and country) handcuffed. Onerous red tape is part of the DNA there.

For all of it's many faults, the CPC has proven over the last 40 years it can make big, unilateral decisions to advance China economically. It took Elon time to win them over but once the CPC made a decision, things went into "ludicrous mode" instantly. That can't happen in India.

Then there is India's infrastructure issues. Oh brother!

IMO, until India becomes compelling to Tesla because saturation elsewhere makes it their clear and best opportunity, nothing will happen. The good thing is building more GFs in China, Europe, the USA (and maybe elsewhere) will keep Tesla busy for a long time.

Fully agree with this perspective. Name one thing that India is known for in the manufacturing sector.

The IT services sector survived and thrived inspite of the government, not because of it. There were no laws governing technology or white collar workers. Not the case for blue collar workers.

Here's a quora discussion on this matter.

https://www.quora.com/Why-isnt-the-...dia-developing?ch=10&share=32206ef4&srid=um1b

That said, the one small hope I have is India is going all in on solar and wind. At some point grid balancing will become a major issue. There will be a need for a large balancing mechanism of sorts. It's more likely that Tesla will be involved in solving this problem than taking on the EV transition.

Relatedly the richest family the ambanis have a super tight handle on government policy. Their main money comes from refining and petrochemicals. The other big family, Tatas have a big, if fumbling, auto business in India. None of these people want Tesla in.

I really wish India would take advantage of this paradigm shift, but the bureaucracy and the politicians working at Cross purposes between the center and states give me little hope. I wish to be proven wrong.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Did you listen to Tesla Daily with the Analyst interview? Seems that battery investor day is to show a roadmap to this 50% yoy growth, 1.2 million cars by 2023. So this is the expectation, to see how Tesla can overcome battery constraints.

Anything beyond this he mentioned that credibility will probably not be given much because if supply outstrip demand (say Tesla can surprise and guide for 2 twh by 2023), he sees this as a potential negative because it's a strain on operating cost and there won't be enough demand to use all this 2twh of batteries by 2023. So I think the power train part is exciting, but the battery part is somewhat being priced in. Anything beyond is not going to be seen as a positive for the short term according to him. So it's something to be mindful about.

So production beyond what the analyst see as potential EV adoption by 2023 is not going to move the stock much. But if the price drops below $100/kwh, then perhaps stock will go bonkers.

I did notice that many of the things the analyst said were idiotic and betrayed a marginal understanding of Tesla. I was highly impressed with Rob Maurer's ability to not snicker or get into a debate but simply say things like "Interesting. Tell me more things you believe."

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Not if you're Elon F Musk. 5 babies between 2004 and 2006

correction. That's Justine Musk. credit where credit is due.

 

[Prunesquallor]

(Cc: @Prunesquallor)



For example here's European auto industry analyst Matthias Schmidt:

Matthias Schmidt on Twitter

"Why I believe 2020/21 EU #CO2 targets achievable:

- inclusion of [Norway]
- PHEVs comeback | >50% mix large models
- BEV supply ↑
- 48V MHEV
- Supercredits (max. 7.5g/km over 3yrs) for vehicles <50g/km
- Eco-innovations 7g/km pa.
- Carsharing/fleet deals
- Weight ↑ = +1-2g/km target"​

So he posits that:

• the inclusion of Norway sales in the EU fleet average, which is a mostly-EV country, will be favorable, (true, but Norway is a small market),
  
• he expects plug-in-hybrids to be >50% or large models, (true, but this has a non-trivial cost, so this either shrinks the market or adds extra costs that eat into profits),
  
• he expects ZEV sales to increase, (true, but they have both production bottlenecks and battery supply problems),
  
• he expects "mild hybrid" sales to increase, (unclear to me to what extent this is possible),
  
• he includes Supercredits (which you did too in your model),
• he thinks there are "eco-innovations" in ICE drive-trains worth about 7g/km, (this is a huge factor, I'm curious what that truly means - for example lower motor power by default, only for emissions testing?),
  
• he expects average weight of models to go up, which reduces emissions by 1-2 g/km (this probably means not selling the smaller cars?)

All of these come with costs though - so they are basically spending billions on inferior products to avoid billions in fines ...

1) Yes, after rereading the rules, it appears that Norway (and Iceland) will be included in the EU emissions calculations.
CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in the European Union: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2018 | International Council on Clean Transportation

2) Hard to judge. FCA for example has some hybrid Jeeps they expect to start selling this year. How many? Hard to say.
Jeep launches Renegade and Jeep Compass 4xe plug-in hybrids in Europe

3) Increased ZEV sales. How is that going for VWG? And Jag? Fiat thinks that’ll have some 500e's.
The return of the Fiat 500e, and its outsized meaning for EVs - Electrek

4) Not sure what mild hybrids are. A little help here?

5) Right, Super-Credits are beneficial (especially this year) for ZEV and low-emission hybrids

6) Per the rules, the maximum credit you can claim for eco-innovations is 7 g/km. However, according to this report (July 2018) the fleet average CO2 reductions were less than 1 g/ km.
https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EU_Eco_innovations_Briefing_20180712.pdf

7) The CO2 targets are a function of vehicle weight - the heavier the vehicle, the higher emissions allowed, and the average weight of vehicles sold in the EU has been going up. The argument seems to be that this helps, because the resulting higher targets will be easier to achieve. But in reality, this is offset by the heavier vehicle actually having higher emissions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Oh haha. Not sure if I missed that part or if it was edited in later, but yes, India!

Lol, since you replied 5 hrs after I posted the original comment (which indicates no editing), you can be confident that you missed that part.

Cheers!

 

[Cat Checking]

I don't think Elon will run out of product ideas.

Plenty of people have stock already and plenty of people work for Tesla ....stock price drops should not be publicly wished for IMHO.

Talk to KarenRei lol

 

[Rashomon]

4) Not sure what mild hybrids are. A little help here?

Mild hybrids are just that: slightly electrified ICE cars. They’re cheap to make; the current preferred tech is a 48v motor/generator replacing the alternator, often belt driven, and a slightly higher capacity 48v battery replacing the 12v system. You can do start/stop when the car isn’t moving much more smoothly, and use the motor to fill out a little bit of parts of test cycles where ICEs are very inefficient, as well as do a tiny bit of regeneration. It also gives you power to electrify other accessories if you want. The benefit is maybe 10-15 percent improvement in economy for very little cost, just a few hundred dollars. The German luxury makers are all doing this on almost every model, and there’s increasingly a 48v electrical component market evolving, so you don’t have to do much DC/DC conversion to run 12v stuff. And 48v is below the 60v safety limit, so you don’t have to have special electrical certification to work on a vehicle in the EU.

 

[ZeApelido]

But the reason that Tesla isn't currently in the country is because import costs are so prohibitive. The only way I see India lowering these import costs for Tesla is if it includes a promise from Tesla to build a Gigafactory in the country after a certain level of demand and supercharger/store/service presence has been established.

I don't see how a factory or presence in Pakistan helps Tesla get into India. It also doesn't particularly help Tesla in its goal of localized production.

Gigafactories in Kashmir and across the Dead Sea and Tesla will bring world peace.

 

[Cyber_Dav]

Fully agree with this perspective. Name one thing that India is known for in the manufacturing sector.

Tractors. Mahindra (was at one time) the largest tractor manufacturer in the world.

But on topic, this little dip hit two of my standing order limits, so I snagged some more shares. It can go back up, now.

 

[ZeApelido]

My guess semi at Sparks..

Energy storage cells and packs made at NY,,,,

This frees up cell capacity at Sparks for Model 3, Model Y and Semi..

Energy storage battery transport to the East Coast and Europe is easier...

Probably better to also add energy storage production in China for the Asian market.

Tesla should rename GF1 "Plug" and GF2 "Wild Wings"