I too haven’t touched any of my shares in my very long term pension account. And the reason for that is because I feel on balance that Tesla is well placed to ride out a recession, even one that might prove be a once a generation event.
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Yes, Tesla is, in my view, the best investment to make in the energy transformation. It is a once in a century company with Standard Oil being the best and perhaps only true analogue. So long as that investment thesis holds and barring substantial upsets in my own life, I would hold through any of the type of global turmoil seen, say, in the last century— war, plague, depression, you name it.
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But last I checked, a great number of people here are engaged in trading. And a greater number still will have portions of their investment portfolio that they intend to monetise earlier than a “very long time” time frame.
I am an adamant member of the buy and hold camp. I am investing in a company that I understand. By 2025, returns should be insane, but maybe the virus or something else will push that to 2026 or 2027. Not so long I think.
Trading adds too much complexity for me to follow and perhaps even for some of the traders here. I do not care to enter the spiders’ parlor. I feel bad for those bitten. Maybe there’s a lesson somewhere in there for them?
Also, the opportunity costs of keeping the tight, short term focus that trading requires is not worthwhile, IMHO. There is much more to be gained by taking a larger, longer view. The Art of the Long View takes time to master
The Art of the Long View|NOOK Book
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Governments around the world are this weekend having serious conversations about the trade off between guaranteeing an economic downturn through restrictions on trade and movement, versus letting the virus run its course and accepting the consequences. It’s naive to pretend this isn’t going on and frankly insults your own intelligence to call a long standing and bullish poster a “care bear” for trying to highlight these risks.
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It was not my intention to call
@JBRR a care bear nor did I do so. I merely alluded to the large increases in care bear postings around dips.
Were the sky actually falling, should they not be attending to their safety and the lives of their family members? Do the investments of complete strangers on the internet take priority? One might, as I do, take reassurance from all these posts (again, not calling out anyone in particular) and translate them to reveal their true intent: “Please sell, and believe me when I (don’t) say I have an ulterior motive"
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Think about the second order consequences. If there is not a sharp rebound in Q2 in China after what may be in truth a double digit yoy GDP contraction in Q1, what do you suppose will happen to the banking system? One that is already stuffed to the gills with undeclared NPLs. Mass capitalisation of bad banks to clean up the balance sheet is the Communist Party’s normal play, finances by printed local currency. But what then happens to the yuan and what does that mean for the competitiveness of the wider world and the global trade system?
Italy’s banking system has already teetered on the brink of insolvency for a couple of years and it’s politics becoming more fragmented and extreme. Hopefully after a poor start, the govt contains the outbreak. But what if it doesn’t and you have a full blown recession? Do the politics of it before long force Italy out of the Eurozone? What happens to its giant Target 2 deficit (tending towards €1tr), largely financed by Germany? And what might that all do to the politics in France?
What happens to Emerging Markers, which are heavily exposed to a) commodity prices, b) tourism?
Others here far better qualified to talk about US.
It’s perfectly fine to say you’re not selling Tesla for 15 years and don’t care if the mark to market fell 90% in the interim. But I suspect there are many here who have still not considered that is even a possibility.
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There was turbulence on the horizon even before this virus.
The Dow was ‘overbought,’ as the saying goes (obviously so?).
The energy transformation has begun.
We may well be entering a deflationary boom as Catherine Wood of ARKK Investments says.
So, yes, lots of risks and opportunities. So many cross currents and rip tides.
I do not feel as blythe as I may come across. I do worry, just not about Tesla. In fact, I see it almost as a life ring in stormy seas. The greater the turbulence, the tighter I cling to my shares, because the turbulence is due to extraneous conditions but the direction of travel is right.
