Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

From The Economist, February 27, 2020:
"A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care. Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year. Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions."
The virus is coming
(may be paywalled)

Biggest data point missing from this will be the age group of the 15% that requires hospitalization. Also their health background. Blanket statements like "15% require hospitalization" doesn't tell the entire story.

 

[JBRR]

I would LOVE to see Tesla reverse course and embrace using EVs to stabilize the grid. And eventually boost renewable adoption via technologies such as V2H. (And maybe even V2G someday, if it ever comes to that). This is by far the best approach for society, even if it may not be the best approach for Tesla's Energy division.

I expect them to announce this course change as they announce production of batteries thats compatible with this course.

 

[azaz]

friend got notified he can pick up model y LR non-performance on east coast this week

 

[Fact Checking]

HW3 upgrades are getting smoother:

Smooth HW3 upgrade for 2019 Model X : teslamotors

"Tech was here at 9:40 AM and left at 10:15 AM. No extra smudges, scratches, rips from the technician. All that is left for me to do is drive it around to calibrate the cameras like I did on day one of ownership. Great job from the Tesla Plano service team and Robert."​

That's 35 minutes swap time with approach and pleasantries included, getting closer to Elon's 20 minutes target.

 

[Fred42]

Sorry, but is your point really that I should trust an unattributed claim in a fluff article in The Economist over the raw data and my own lying eyes?

Seriously, epidemiologists will be conservative and they'll include the Hubei data in any estimates they make - but in Hubei there was serious under-reporting of mild cases, which skewed all these rates up significantly. If you double check the numbers I cited from primary sources, you'll arrive at a similar conclusion that the observable hospitalization and critical-patient rates are a lot lower than 15% and 5%, even with a fairly conservative approach.

This Economist article includes the same assertion with more information.
Covid-19 is now in 50 countries, and things will get worse

Edit: I'm sure you know more than I. I just wanted to present other information.

Also:

 

[JRP3]

What was market's response to the 2009 Avian flu?
It's seems to me to not have been nearly as severe as the current panic.

Agree, we are seeing much more aggressive actions by governments world wide this time, which is causing an inflated market to panic.

 

[AudubonB]

I'm interested in some speculation on Mass Landing and Hornsdale, cell sourcing pricing etc..

(Feel free to correct anything)

For starters just assuming Moss Landing is using 1 GWh of cells how many Model 3/Y would that volume of cells build and how much profit would Tesla make on the cars?

My rough guess 15,000 cars profit $150M.

Next question where are Megapacks to be made? My guesses in order Nevada or Buffalo

What would be the cost and profit margin on 1 GWh worth of Megapacks..

(My wild guesses sort of deduced from Hornsdale)

High: Revenue $600M Profit $120M, Low: Revenue $300M Profit $60M,

My hunch is closer to the low side, which means Battery Investor Day will reveal that energy storage cells will come from a different supply than automotive, no big surprise...

It may or may not also reveal where Megapacks will be made...

So in summary I don't think Tesla will be forgoing around $150M of profit on 15,000 Model 3/Ys, they will find a way to do both..

MOD: Excuse me but this is NOT the SpaceX thread.

 

[abasile]

Also, the opportunity costs of keeping the tight, short term focus that trading requires is not worthwhile, IMHO. There is much more to be gained by taking a larger, longer view.

Agreed. However, as Tesla fans, many of us are likely to continue following the company closely, regardless. Given this, making a bit of side money by playing with TSLA options doesn't seem unreasonable.

I considered getting F PUTs when it was $9, but then I decided I didn't want to spend time researching Ford, so I just kept my money long TSLA.

In addition to being a way of betting on the shift to renewables and EVs, long dated Puts on oil and legacy auto companies can offer a means of hedging against overall market downturns. My intent would be to keep the Put positions small enough to avoid worrying about closely tracking XOM, F, etc.

 

[AudubonB]

...
But some additive is always left - and it’s basically poison for the reactions that takes place and damages the battery cell all around. So would love to not need the additive for all the above reasons.
So maxwell’s innovation to just take the different component that form the layer (excluding the additive) and pulverising it with a jet mill. (super compressed air blaster). The stress exerted causes the different materials to ===>fibrilize<=== on a molecular level and boom - no additive needed.
....

"Fibrilize"? A "fibrilizer"????

I really need to go back to MatSci classes. And, it seems, something more advanced than mere 595-level course work.

Aside from that "huh?" moment, thank you for the summarized explanation.

 

[JBRR]

"Fibrilize"? A "fibrilizer"????

I really need to go back to MatSci classes. And, it seems, something more advanced than mere 595-level course work.

Aside from that "huh?" moment, thank you for the summarized explanation.

Did I use a wrong word?
I mean this Fiber - Wikipedia

fibrilize - Wiktionary

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just happened to pop on Bloomberg BusinessWeek via Roku app and was surprised to hear some millennial on there detailing the delta hedging logic espoused here over the last few weeks.

I guess us retail folks are finally getting some love if they have entire Reddit conversations on the TV business news.

I still there there's a coordinated angle we could take as a group to push these options markets around when needed(or when annoyed with MM manipulation).

Edit: On a side note....are we using 3M as an abbreviation for market maker manipulation? If not we should be. As in " You believe this b******* 3M nonsense?"

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

friend got notified he can pick up model y LR non-performance on east coast this week

Ask if he ordered FSD. That seems to be the common denominator with the deliveries happening in March.

Speaking of FSD, how much of the $7000 can Tesla realize right away? It seems they are prioritizing FSD to increase revenue and GM. I just have no idea how much of the $7000 will go towards Q1.

 

[UCF3]

Are we expecting this week to start off flat until the Fed announces a rate cut or until we have news on a vaccine?

 

[Christine69420]

Very nice to see the machines removing the tree roots of the recently cut down pine trees in our favourite German field.

Two days ago - but I hadn't seen it earlier. And I see many of these.

 

[azaz]

Ask if he ordered FSD. That seems to be the common denominator with the deliveries happening in March.

Speaking of FSD, how much of the $7000 can Tesla realize right away? It seems they are prioritizing FSD to increase revenue and GM. I just have no idea how much of the $7000 will go towards Q1.

he did not

 

[Off Shore]

Ok pope got it too.
Vatican confirms Pope Francis and two aides test positive for Coronavirus - MCM

Not a particularly good look marking this funny, IMO.

 

[2virgule5]

friend got notified he can pick up model y LR non-performance on east coast this week

When did he order?

 

[AudubonB]

Did I use a wrong word?
I mean this Fiber - Wikipedia

fibrilize - Wiktionary

I have no idea. I was innocently remarking I'd never come across that in metallic or submetallic materials handling.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Some here may not realize that one of the reasons Rivian is making progress on the legislative front is that their VP of Public Policy is none other than Jim Chen, who used to be one of Tesla’s key policy folks, and back in the day fought many a good fight on behalf of Tesla in state legislatures around the country. Rivian was smart to bring Jim on.

Yep. The link below is the Texas Senate hearing last year on proposed changes to the Texas automobile franchise law (this was the one where language was snuck in which would have made it difficult or impossible for Tesla to service their cars).

The relevant portion starts at 1:47:00. Jim Chen's testimony is at 1:55:00.
Senate Committee on Business & Commerce - Apr 4th, 2019

To a degree this was all (to channel @Artful Dodger ) Kabuki Theater since the bill had already been amended to everyone's satisfaction. Karen Steakley, the Tesla lobbyist and Texas Tesla owners are at 2:15:32.

After watching this again, the comments at 1:53:51 are pretty funny. They reflect the fact that the Senators' e-mail got carpet-bombed by Tesla owners.

For those interested in the whole drama, it was pretty well encapsulated by this thread in the "other" forum.
Proposed Texas Legislation to prevent Tesla from Servicing Vehicles in the state - Tesla Owners Online

 

[wipster]

A few years ago when my nephew-in-law and his wife had their first baby, we decided to buy one share of TSLA stock as a birthday present. (Those were the days, it was CHEAP compared to now!) We’ve bought additional shares in subsequent years. Can you imagine what that tiny amount of stock’s gonna be worth when that kid turns 18? I figure, brand new Tesla car for sure. It’ll probably fly as well as drive.

What a nice (and smart) Uncle you are! You sure we're not related ;-)?