Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Snerruc]

Yeah, /r/wallstreetbets members are ... vivid for missing out on the rally today:

Robinhood Crash Megathread : wallstreetbets​

Unfortunately I cannot quote their responses here, you'll have to click yourself.

Funny, it’s working for me. Just bought a share to check.

 

[M|S|W]

I knew this Dahn video would be gone in few days, so i downloaded it Link below.

Spoiler

Dropbox - Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives.mp4 - Simplify your life

 

[Fact Checking]

Funny, it’s working for me. Just bought a share to check.

See:

Robinhood Status​

 

[Nocturnal]

Funny, it’s working for me. Just bought a share to check.

It's up and down now.

 

[Rashomon]

I knew this Dahn video would be gone in few days, so i downloaded it Link below.

Spoiler

Dropbox - Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives.mp4 - Simplify your life

I found the question about the single-crystal materials at 58:12 fascinating. Paraphrasing, "If you want this, once the Corona virus is gone, get on an airplane and go to China. It's fully commercialized there. In North America, forget about it -- we're so far behind . . ."

 

[Fact Checking]

Is there history of this account being TSLAQ? It seems fairly bullish from the numbers and statement about it.

Yes, he says so on his Twitter profile page, and also in some tweets.

I'd be careful with his data, especially if it confirms our biases.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla should have "Delivery Event" right? I didn't see anything announced yet. Will first 50 or so go to employees first and then mass rollout out few weeks or days after that?

I'm hopeful for some Model Ys in showrooms soon (Az).

OT, I'm considering one just so I can dump my Murano too! Then decide if I need (want) CyberTruck next year. The idea of my wife and I ride-sharing one Tesla is (and was always) the plan with FSD. I'd also consider our Model 3 trade-in for the Model Y, but need a test drive.

 

[Mike Smith]

3 more deaths in the US

Seattle-area officials report 3 new coronavirus deaths, bringing US total to 5

 

[KSilver2000]

3 more deaths in the US

Seattle-area officials report 3 new coronavirus deaths, bringing US total to 5

Grade AAA prime example of why I've been trying to preach the fact that the way everyone's been trying to calculate a simple mortality rate for Cov-19 is fruitless without a lot of assumptions and context.

Edit: There's a reason why research articles always include a methodology section.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Grade AAA prime example of why I've been trying to preach the fact that the way everyone's been trying to calculate a simple mortality rate for Cov-19 is fruitless without a lot of assumptions and context.

Which cuts both ways. You tend to view the situation with a negative bent for whatever reason. Or at least you come across that way.

I will withhold judgment on what this new information means until we learn more.

 

[Fact Checking]

Grade AAA prime example of why I've been trying to preach the fact that the way everyone's been trying to calculate a simple mortality rate for Cov-19 is fruitless without a lot of assumptions and context.

The context you are missing here is that this is a nursing care facility, with very vulnerable, elderly patients.

Much of the 0.7% estimated mortality rate falls upon that age group.

 

[dl003]

Grade AAA prime example of why I've been trying to preach the fact that the way everyone's been trying to calculate a simple mortality rate for Cov-19 is fruitless without a lot of assumptions and context.

Says we should be aware of assumptions.
-> Statistics from the US are grade AAA examples?
You don't even know how many people in the US are infected. All you have is the numerator.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hey you virus hunting, homeless, license plate guys. Anyone watching the stonk? Looks like 730 is today's answer (not sure about the question)...

 

[gerebgraus]

Note that EU would have had 8 ships had Tesla not decided to send the last ship of the quarter to China. China gets sales from GF3 production (I estimate at 11-12k median case - 2,5k January (~800/wk when open), 2k February (~500/wk x2 + ~1k/wk x 1), 7k March (1,6k/wk)), plus two ships (perhaps 5k cars), for a total of 16,5k. I'm trying to remember China for Q4... something like 11,5k? So +5k in this scenario.

Non-China APAC received the same number of RO-ROs as Q4 (3x). Destinations are different, though - none to Japan, but one to Taiwan this time (anyone know how Taiwan was supplied previously? Containers straight from Fremont, or reshipped from elsewhere in APAC?). Japan can be presumed to be containers this quarter. Overall container shipping this quarter compared to Q4 is an unknown, but wouldn't be surprised if it's up slightly.

One can expect Europe to be very "wavey" this quarter, due to the later start and some shipping delays early on (thankfully the delays were early on and not late in the quarter!). Some various metrics to compare the amount EU shipping is down:

• Loss of 1 EU ship normally means about 3-3,5k down.
• But Q4 deliveries averaged 4,5k per ship, in part because, and probably in part because of higher-than-average per-ship loading. But also in part due to greater residual inventory.
• 21% would be 6,2k down.
• Residual inventory was about 2k higher.

Going with 7k down, that'd be 28,5k for Europe.

If the US is similar to Q4, overall we're pretty flat, perhaps a marginal decline (Q4 was 120k). ASPs should be pretty flat as well.

For comparison: Factset predicts revenues of 6,67B, down from 7,4B in Q4:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

E.g., 90% as many deliveries. If non-automotive revenue can be assumed to track automotive, and if Factset also assumes flat ASPs, their numbers correspond to 101k deliveries, down 19k.

If North American deliveries will have a substantial number (the unknown) of Y-s instead of 3-s than ASPs would go up especially since all these Ys are long range and FSD.

 

[Nocturnal]

Which cuts both ways. You tend to view the situation with a negative bent for whatever reason. Or at least you come across that way.

I will withhold judgment on what this new information means until we learn more.

I take it as a positive myself. If we are drastically undercounting the number of infected, which seems likely, then the fatality rate is lower than suspected.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I take it as a positive myself. If we are drastically undercounting the number of infected, which seems likely, then the fatality rate is lower than suspected.

Agreed. The flip side to that view, which I concede is still possible (though I hope not and I find this the less likely outcome), is that the incubation period + disease progression + spread have not yet contributed to what would be, in this hypothetical, a spike in presentation of serious illness.

Personally, I hew more to the view you're taking.

 

[Boomer19]

Yeah, /r/wallstreetbets members are ... vivid for missing out on the rally today:

Robinhood Crash Megathread : wallstreetbets​

Unfortunately I cannot quote their responses here, you'll have to click yourself.

i keep telling everyone to find a real broker

 

[KSilver2000]

Says we should be aware of assumptions.

You don't even know how many people in the US are infected. All you have is the numerator.

BINGO!

For an unknown infectious disease, what do people think should go in the denominator?

A cohort of just the King County cases? A cohort of cases in the state of Washington? A cohort based on age? A cohort based on underlying medical conditions? Based on what we know about the disease, do we include an estimate of subclinicals?

It isn't accurate to just simply take the the deceased count by the number of total cases. Then you're also not taking into account cases that have resolved, and you don't know the outcome of active cases.
There's a reason why epidemiology uses many different ratios to study unknown diseases. And also why research studies in general have a methodology section, so that all assumptions are laid out.

Edit: The standard flu is easier to calculate more accurately because it is a known entity and we can see the numbers retrospectively.

 

[larmor]

Hey you virus hunting, homeless, license plate guys. Anyone watching the stonk? Looks like 730 is today's answer (not sure about the question)...

MM had to go to the gas station-- and use the same gas station handles as everyone else...

 

[vikings123]

Hey you virus hunting, homeless, license plate guys. Anyone watching the stonk? Looks like 730 is today's answer (not sure about the question)...

Thanks for bringing us back on track I was expecting 750 but given the latest news I'm not so sure. I'm surprised the major indices are holding steady.