Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

That doesn't seem right. I am as skeptical of their plans and stats as anyone here, but stating that they plan to begin rolling out in 2025 is just not accurate.

GM showed and discussed 11 new all-electric vehicles Wednesday as part of its plans through 2025, which includes at least 20 new models by 2023.

...

The first all-electric vehicle with the new technology will be the GMC Hummer pickup going on sale in the fall of 2021, followed by a Cadillac crossover for the U.S. in 2022. The automaker also will unveil a crossover based on the Chevrolet Bolt and its current EV platform called the Bolt EUV later this year, followed by production beginning in early-2021.​

But those are the "batteries not included" low volume versions, right? New battery factory will only start producing batteries in 2025, correct?

 

[StealthP3D]

So my prognostication is that we will tend to trade in a range of $670 to $970 for the next 6 months. It's pretty healthy for the price to float around in the $700s for awhile as the market gets used to this new valuation for Tesla.

I like your overall analysis but I think you are making a mistake to assume TSLA needs to stay in any "range" for 6 months. The 4-5 years between $200-$400 was a trading range that stuck around because TSLA had no profits and revenues were relatively small. We are in a new era of TSLA where we can watch incremental improvements of gross margins, revenues, etc. There is big growth ahead and the market will struggle to value it.

As long as the overall market doesn't turn into a bear market, I think we will continue to see price appreciation through 2020. And I'm not talking about a low volatility, smooth walk up to your high-end price target of $1070. A stock like this will likely over-shoot that and come back down for a spell until there are enough new catalysts to propel it higher. Instead of a trading range, I expect to see big zigs (mostly progressively higher) followed by big zags down (also mostly progressively higher). This will probably not form a horizontal channel or trading range like we saw in the previous several years. And it won't be even or smooth or easy to trade as in past years.

 

[ninpb]

There is so much wrong with this picture. View attachment 517952

Past Elon: "ok ready" as he buckles up in 500 mile cyber truck during unveil.

I really hope for the sake of humanity that people aren't this dumb. That this guy is just trying to get a paycheck for his mortgage, tuition for kids.

 

[Earlian]

So, how long do we have to wait, till the "analysts" understand that GM has nothing as of today?

... and imagine were Tesla stands in 2025 ....

Where are GM's Gigafactories today? Are they breaking ground of 10 factories this year?

And because of that nonsense we have stay another day in the Kabuki theatre?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Reading these articles on GM's presentation, I think GM employed a classic tactic of combining the headline facets of a multi-product strategy so as to make it seem that the best parts of the product line would be the baseline for every product. I noticed that Ford did the same in its Mach-E presentation.

400 mile range, sub 3-second 0-60 times, 100 miles of charge in 10 minutes -- aside from being purely aspirational, these are stats that I can almost guarantee you are cherry picked from multiple products. I'm willing to bet that the charging time stat is cherry picked from one of their truck model plans, for instance. (see quote)

GM has also developed new charging technology. Most of their electric vehicles will have a standard operating voltage of 400 volts with a charging rate of 200 kW, but their trucks will be able to charge at 800 volts and 350 kW.

The 400 mile range stat is based on a 200kWh battery, which is atrocious efficiency (not to mention horribly cost ineffective).

That 200.0-kWh battery will only go into GM’s electric trucks, the Hummer SUT, Hummer SUV, and an electrified Chevrolet pickup. The huge battery, we approximate, is roughly 18 inches thick. GM estimates its biggest battery will give vehicles a range of up to 400 miles or more on a full charge.

Given that these are aspirations, and that I seriously doubt GM's ability to execute to plan, their presentation changes my thinking that GM is in serious trouble not one iota.

 

[StealthP3D]

I won't give play by play on the GM presentation, but they are making hay of the fact that they are installing 3k EV chargers at GM workplaces around the nation. Yeah guys, come on. That should be obvious, like building a parking lot.

This is actually big news. With as many employees as GM has, I imagine they have just increased their addressable market by at least 50%. Imagine if they sold one EV to every GM employee!

GM was not joking when they said they were going into EV's in a big way! /s

Seriously, I think what they are going to find out is they will not be very cost-competitive with Tesla. But they will be able to compete with ICE vehicles as long as they execute well, so this is a very good move. Tesla will still be selling every car they can make and people will still want more EV's.

 

[Cherry Wine]

But those are the "batteries not included" low volume versions, right? New battery factory will only start producing batteries in 2025, correct?

I don't think so -- the CNBC article said the Hummer would have the "new technology" in the fall of 2021.

The first all-electric vehicle with the new technology will be the GMC Hummer pickup going on sale in the fall of 2021

 

[Todd Burch]

It's reassuring to see that GM is only 5-15 years behind Tesla. Cool.

 

[Swampgator]

The Celestiq will be hand-built in the Detroit area, GM President Mark Reuss said

Wasn't this the claim TSLAQ used to against TSLA during Model 3 ramp?

 

[Curt Renz]

Margin calls and their enforcement may have become a factor today, especially for TSLA. Compounding that, the all-day outage at Robinhood on Monday, with another Tuesday morning, may be causing many of its frustrated clients to liquidate and close their accounts. A large number of its clients are millennials, a group that tends to favor investment in TSLA. Those leaving Robinhood will need a little time to reinvest at other brokerages.

 

[Nocturnal]

Margin calls and their enforcement may have become a factor today, especially for TSLA. Compounding that, the all-day outage at Robinhood on Monday, with another Tuesday morning, may be causing many of its frustrated clients to liquidate and close their accounts. A large number of its clients are millennials, a group that tends to favor investment in TSLA. Those leaving Robinhood will need a little time to reinvest at other brokerages.

I haven't really started funding my TD account yet and I got margin called on my 5 shares I hold there. I had to deposit $100 to make it up.

 

[LJS22]

Margin calls and their enforcement may have become a factor today, especially for TSLA. Compounding that, the all-day outage at Robinhood on Monday, with another Tuesday morning, may be causing many of its frustrated clients to liquidate and close their accounts. A large number of its clients are millennials, a group that tends to favor investment in TSLA. Those leaving Robinhood will need a little time to reinvest at other brokerages.

They’d be wise to transfer their account. It will be a headache for a couple weeks but you’d keep your shares.

 

[Rashomon]

2025? Am I reading that right??

Not quite. The announcement was of EVs that would be available through 2025. It was certainly backloaded, with some arriving late, but some of the new platform EVs, such as the Hummer, will be available in late 2021. The Cadillac Lyric wagon/SUV will be sold in China in 2021 and in the US in 2022.

 

[Silentk]

"unveils". lollolololol

Such a dumb article. Yes, the size of the battery is the important part.

Car not included...

 

[humbaba]

“400 miles of range or more” lol that’s for a 200kwh battery

The way I see it, the Taycan is, what, ~480 Wh/mi? And this would be 500 Wh/mi for the hummer. That's not too shabby for an unaerodynamic vehicle with a body designed for an ICE and is made to support a battery that is 18" thick (forgot where I saw that so no citation).* So, while not impressive, it also looks about right for something GM would (eventually) make.

Also, while they are planning on eventually bringing the cell cost to <$100/kWh I haven't seen any mention of the density. That's going to be one heckuva heavy battery pack which isn't going to help cargo capacity. {ed: assuming they match where Tesla used to be for packs[1] that would be ~2150 pounds just for the battery. Ouch!}

* I'm still trying to wrap my head around that one. Will it have no ground clearance or will you need a ladder to get into it?

1) Tesla Model 3 Battery Cell Has World's Highest Energy Density

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

So, how long do we have to wait, till the "analysts" understand that GM has nothing as of today?

... and imagine were Tesla stands in 2025 Years....

Where are GM's Gigafactories today? Are they breaking ground of 10 factories this year?

And because of that nonsense we have stay another day in the Kabuki theatre?

The good thing about the presentations by GM and BMW this week and the Ford Mustang is that they are making electric cars the 'inevitable' future in the minds of the general public. However what matters is having excellent products, in volume, available for people to buy. GM, BMW, Ford, VW/ Porsche/Audi and Mercedes are a long way from products that are comparable to Tesla and that is only going to be reinforced in just over a weeks time when the Y starts being delivered.

Ongoing successful execution together with increasing cash and profits will eventually quieten the Kabuki theatre.

 

[tslagreen]

Sigh... Because US manufacturing kicks-in for the second half of the quarter, ergo order times for Q1 are: January are 8-12 weeks, February 4-8 weeks, March 2-4 weeks.

Come on, dude, you've been around here for years, you know this...

Trading my 2015 Model S for new Model S LR+. Ordered on February 17th and picking up next week, March 11th.

Psyched. 390 mile range. 0-60 in 3.7 seconds. I did not upgrade autopilot for additional $7000.

 

[oldTAVguy]

This is actually big news. With as many employees as GM has, I imagine they have just increased their addressable market by at least 50%. Imagine if they sold one EV to every GM employee!

GM was not joking when they said they were going into EV's in a big way! /s

Seriously, I think what they are going to find out is they will not be very cost-competitive with Tesla. But they will be able to compete with ICE vehicles as long as they execute well, so this is a very good move. Tesla will still be selling every car they can make and people will still want more EV's.

Remember that they are selling through their dealer network. The dealers have to sell the cars, GM just has to force the dealers to take them. What will they provide to dealers to make up for not having the service dollars coming in?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla on Twitter

Tesla won another top Safety award.

Media: GM will (eventually) catch up to Tesla and crush them!

 

[PeterJA]

...SP down, thereby creating losses (OK, on paper) for those who hold. What am I missing here?...

Go to the blackboard and write 100 times: Paper losses are not losses.

Say GM announces that their new Tesla-killer (coming in 5 years) will have 900-mile range, $10k price, and Cat and Burp Mode in addition to Dog and Fart. Is a paper car a car?

Say Bill Gates announces he is running for President on the Wrinkly Geek ticket. With his money, he can buy 10 times more TV ads than Michael Bloomberg. Is a paper win a win?

Every TSLA holder owns a piece of the fastest growing, most innovative transportation/energy company on Earth, including factories, design centers, stores, service centers, chargers, a giant fleet of rolling computers preparing for the Transportation Singularity (autonomous driving), a growing fleet of solar roofs and batteries preparing for the Energy Singularity (renewable micro-grids), and a growing global braintrust of phenomenal talent. Did you lose any of those things today?

Look at the blackboard. What does it say.