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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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My understanding is that this strategy was attempted before, and they found out that many US oil companies were able to shut down (or go bankrupt or whatever) when the price hit "unprofitable" and then the majors said "victory secured!" and raised prices again, and then poof! a bunch of shale extractors started right back up again the moment it became profitable again. That is, the flexibility of US extractors to shut down when unprofitable and (for perhaps new ones) to start up again when it was profitable defeated the plan.

That's no longer true. The market for shale oil investing has shrunk considerably since the last oil glut. Previously, there was an almost unlimited appetite for shale oil investments. It has dramatically shrunk before the most recent price drop. Most of the small producers were not profitable overall, billions of investor money was lost. Investors have lost their appetite for funding new wells and exploration. Entire drilling areas closed down for lack of investment (before this most recent drop in prices). Companies have been bankrupted (and those who are not have dramatically shrunk investment in new operations). The estimated reserves were over-hyped, wells are drying up faster than projected, overall, just a disaster. It will not bounce back like last time.

Though as much as they hate US supply, it's not clear to me that Saudi Arabia and Russia aren't just attempting to screw each other this time.

Please stop! You are talking about oil billionaires here, businessmen. Their decisions are based on maximizing profits, not who they would like to screw over for the hell of it. They will do what's in their best financial interests. They have chosen short-term price pain to gain a long-term pricing advantage. They have calculated they can extract more money from oil consumers overall if they crash the price of oil in the short-term. This will not last long, just long enough to bankrupt the weak shale oil producers (which describes most of them). Once Russia has experienced the price pain it will be a lot easier for the Saudi's to bring them back to the negotiating table with a willingness to cut production.
 
Objectively that's simply untrue, unless you're leveraging the asset for something else requiring a mark. There is a reason the terms realized and unrealized gains/losses exist.

Like others, I am a bit puzzled in regards to your point on this.
A simple exercise: Suppose your wealth is $1 million. You invest the entire amount into a stock. You never sell. Company goes bankrupt. Stocks wiped out, their value is 0. Is your wealth still $1 M since you never sold. Is it only "paper loss"?

Opposite exercise:
Same scenario, but the share price goes up 10 fold. What is your current wealth?
As you have never sold your worth is still $1M. Everything else is just "paper gain".


I am sorry this paper gain, loss is just as bad then the concept of I am winning because I am a genius, and I am losing because of bad luck(E.g. corona virus.)
(Of course that is my philosophy.)
 
This is something to watching for during an unexpected recession—defaults. It’s hurting the small guys within the oil industry right now. If this gets to a larger scale, it can turn bad pretty quickly in Asia, namely China.

Private Chinese oil refiners' credit suspended, tightened on default fears: sources

SINGAPORE/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Banks are suspending the credit lines for some Chinese independent oil refineries amid rising concerns about overall industrial defaults and as the coronavirus outbreak has eaten into the processors' fuel sales.

At least three independent refiners have had $600 million in credit lines suspended by international banks, said three refinery and trading executives and two finance directors at the affected companies, requesting anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
 
Usually its the R&D department making promises what they will have available in say 2 years considering improvements they imagine will somehow happen which includes mainly statement from suppliers...

There is nothing I have seen from GM that makes me positive they are different in that respect or that their behavior to betray customers did change.

GM doesn't need to invent anything to get bty chemistry as good as Tesla had in 2019. Tesla literally published 2 scientific papers detailing Dr. Jeff Dahn's recipe for NMC811 over the last 6 mths, and Tesla has published the patent (which frees the IP for 'fair use').

All GM has to do is reproduce the tech, and hire/partner with a chem/bty manufacturer.

GM just doesn't WANT to do it. Everything else you read is window dressing the truth: EVs kill sunk costs and capital assets of their ICE business. They are still hoping Tesla fails and all this EV foolishness goes away. And still lobbying hard to make that happen, while dragging their feet. Hence, the promised 2025 EV lineup...

BTW, here's this morning's TSLA chart from stockcharts.com :p

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2020-03-09.09-30.png


Lulz.

Cheers!
 
Last edited:
Well we've tickled the 52 week low.

Well, that's interesting. Because my brokerage account is showing that it's up over 62% in the last 12 months. Even in this "bloodbath". The exciting thing is a lot of excesses have been wrung out of the market. Which enables further gains in the coming months.

There is obviously a lot of potential buying pressure on TSLA (as evidenced by the 9% rise in under 1/2 hour from the re-start of trading today). Still, it wouldn't surprise me to see one more sharp leg down, today or tomorrow or as late as Wednesday, perhaps to as low as $585 before a sharp recovery to above $700, maybe as early as Thursday-Friday.

Don't let the volatility get to you, this is normal market craziness that has to come out and play once in a while. :rolleyes:
 
In all the gloom and doom, I'd like to point out a Tesla relevant fact, Shanghai only had very few new Covid-19 infections over the last 3 weeks:
Code:
# "Shanghai" daily new infections log:
Jan 21:     0 new cases,      0 total cases (   +0%) 
Jan 22:     3 new cases,      3 total cases (+75.0%)  #
Jan 23:    11 new cases,     14 total cases (+73.3%)  #######
Jan 24:     0 new cases,     14 total cases (   +0%) 
Jan 25:    20 new cases,     34 total cases (+57.1%)  #############
Jan 26:     0 new cases,     34 total cases (   +0%) 
Jan 27:    13 new cases,     47 total cases (+27.0%)  ########
Jan 28:    13 new cases,     60 total cases (+21.3%)  ########
Jan 29:    30 new cases,     90 total cases (+32.9%)  ###################
Jan 30:    16 new cases,    106 total cases (+14.9%)  ##########
Jan 31:    23 new cases,    129 total cases (+17.6%)  ###############
Feb 01:    42 new cases,    171 total cases (+24.4%)  ###########################
Feb 02:    16 new cases,    187 total cases ( +8.5%)  ##########
Feb 03:    15 new cases,    202 total cases ( +7.3%)  #########
Feb 04:    25 new cases,    227 total cases (+10.9%)  ################
Feb 05:    21 new cases,    248 total cases ( +8.4%)  #############
Feb 06:    15 new cases,    263 total cases ( +5.6%)  #########
Feb 07:    12 new cases,    275 total cases ( +4.3%)  #######
Feb 08:    11 new cases,    286 total cases ( +3.8%)  #######
Feb 09:     1 new cases,    287 total cases (  +.3%) 
Feb 10:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 11:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 12:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 13:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 14:     8 new cases,    295 total cases ( +2.7%)  #####
Feb 15:     0 new cases,    295 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 16:     5 new cases,    300 total cases ( +1.6%)  ###
Feb 17:     1 new cases,    301 total cases (  +.3%) 
Feb 18:     1 new cases,    302 total cases (  +.3%) 
Feb 19:     0 new cases,    302 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 20:     1 new cases,    303 total cases (  +.3%) 
Feb 21:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 22:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 24:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 25:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 26:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 27:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 28:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 29:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 01:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 02:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 03:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 04:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 05:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 06:     3 new cases,    306 total cases (  +.9%)  #
Mar 07:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 08:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 09:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%)

I believe the data can be trusted, note how there was a secondary cluster of infections a few days after work resumed on February 10 - but that was quickly contained too.

Shanghai is hosting almost all of Tesla's local Chinese suppliers, and it's also the biggest source of growth in 2020 vehicle production. This gives Tesla a temporary competitive advantage as well, as most of the Chinese car industry is based in provinces more heavily affected by the virus outbreak, so they might have a harder time to restart production once demand starts recovering.
 
In all the gloom and doom, I'd like to point out a Tesla relevant fact, Shanghai only had very few new Covid-19 infections over the last 3 weeks:
Code:
# "Shanghai" daily new infections log:
Jan 21:     0 new cases,      0 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 22:     3 new cases,      3 total cases (+75.0%)  #
Jan 23:    11 new cases,     14 total cases (+73.3%)  #######
Jan 24:     0 new cases,     14 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 25:    20 new cases,     34 total cases (+57.1%)  #############
Jan 26:     0 new cases,     34 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 27:    13 new cases,     47 total cases (+27.0%)  ########
Jan 28:    13 new cases,     60 total cases (+21.3%)  ########
Jan 29:    30 new cases,     90 total cases (+32.9%)  ###################
Jan 30:    16 new cases,    106 total cases (+14.9%)  ##########
Jan 31:    23 new cases,    129 total cases (+17.6%)  ###############
Feb 01:    42 new cases,    171 total cases (+24.4%)  ###########################
Feb 02:    16 new cases,    187 total cases ( +8.5%)  ##########
Feb 03:    15 new cases,    202 total cases ( +7.3%)  #########
Feb 04:    25 new cases,    227 total cases (+10.9%)  ################
Feb 05:    21 new cases,    248 total cases ( +8.4%)  #############
Feb 06:    15 new cases,    263 total cases ( +5.6%)  #########
Feb 07:    12 new cases,    275 total cases ( +4.3%)  #######
Feb 08:    11 new cases,    286 total cases ( +3.8%)  #######
Feb 09:     1 new cases,    287 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 10:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 11:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 12:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 13:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 14:     8 new cases,    295 total cases ( +2.7%)  #####
Feb 15:     0 new cases,    295 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 16:     5 new cases,    300 total cases ( +1.6%)  ###
Feb 17:     1 new cases,    301 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 18:     1 new cases,    302 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 19:     0 new cases,    302 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 20:     1 new cases,    303 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 21:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 22:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 24:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 25:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 26:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 27:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 28:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 29:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 01:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 02:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 03:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 04:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 05:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 06:     3 new cases,    306 total cases (  +.9%)  #
Mar 07:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 08:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 09:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%)

I believe the data can be trusted, note how there was a secondary cluster of infections a few days after work resumed on February 10 - but that was quickly contained too.

Shanghai is hosting almost all of Tesla's local Chinese suppliers, and it's also the biggest source of growth in 2020 vehicle production. This gives Tesla a temporary competitive advantage as well, as most of the Chinese car industry is based in provinces more heavily affected by the virus outbreak, so they might have a harder time to restart production once demand starts recovering.

As always, great analysis!

Question is: how far will the Chinese auto market fall in a global recession (which clearly greatly impacts the Chinese export economy)?
 
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In all the gloom and doom, I'd like to point out a Tesla relevant fact, Shanghai only had very few new Covid-19 infections over the last 3 weeks:
Code:
# "Shanghai" daily new infections log:
Jan 21:     0 new cases,      0 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 22:     3 new cases,      3 total cases (+75.0%)  #
Jan 23:    11 new cases,     14 total cases (+73.3%)  #######
Jan 24:     0 new cases,     14 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 25:    20 new cases,     34 total cases (+57.1%)  #############
Jan 26:     0 new cases,     34 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 27:    13 new cases,     47 total cases (+27.0%)  ########
Jan 28:    13 new cases,     60 total cases (+21.3%)  ########
Jan 29:    30 new cases,     90 total cases (+32.9%)  ###################
Jan 30:    16 new cases,    106 total cases (+14.9%)  ##########
Jan 31:    23 new cases,    129 total cases (+17.6%)  ###############
Feb 01:    42 new cases,    171 total cases (+24.4%)  ###########################
Feb 02:    16 new cases,    187 total cases ( +8.5%)  ##########
Feb 03:    15 new cases,    202 total cases ( +7.3%)  #########
Feb 04:    25 new cases,    227 total cases (+10.9%)  ################
Feb 05:    21 new cases,    248 total cases ( +8.4%)  #############
Feb 06:    15 new cases,    263 total cases ( +5.6%)  #########
Feb 07:    12 new cases,    275 total cases ( +4.3%)  #######
Feb 08:    11 new cases,    286 total cases ( +3.8%)  #######
Feb 09:     1 new cases,    287 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 10:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 11:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 12:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 13:     0 new cases,    287 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 14:     8 new cases,    295 total cases ( +2.7%)  #####
Feb 15:     0 new cases,    295 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 16:     5 new cases,    300 total cases ( +1.6%)  ###
Feb 17:     1 new cases,    301 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 18:     1 new cases,    302 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 19:     0 new cases,    302 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 20:     1 new cases,    303 total cases (  +.3%)
Feb 21:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 22:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 24:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 25:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 26:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 27:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 28:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 29:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 01:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 02:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 03:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 04:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 05:     0 new cases,    303 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 06:     3 new cases,    306 total cases (  +.9%)  #
Mar 07:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 08:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 09:     0 new cases,    306 total cases (   +0%)

I believe the data can be trusted, note how there was a secondary cluster of infections a few days after work resumed on February 10 - but that was quickly contained too.

Shanghai is hosting almost all of Tesla's local Chinese suppliers, and it's also the biggest source of growth in 2020 vehicle production. This gives Tesla a temporary competitive advantage as well, as most of the Chinese car industry is based in provinces more heavily affected by the virus outbreak, so they might have a harder time to restart production once demand starts recovering.

Great insights. Imagine if TSLA reports 105K deliveries for Q1 AND they come out saying COVID19 had minor impacts to their supply chain helping them confirm their 2020 guidance. It could set us up for some huge gains.
 
As always, great analysis!

Question is: how far will the Chinese auto market fall in a global recession (which clearly greatly impacts the Chinese export economy)?

Depends. Production of consumer staples should be booming, as should healthcare. The big spending hits should be travel (esp. air travel) and tourism, which are not huge focuses of the Chinese economy, as a % of GDP.
 
This market action seems very overdone. Looking at the case/death stats, this primarily seems to be a problem for china (now contained), s korea, italy and iran.

Frankly if Italy and iran and S Korea were all permanently obliterated by meteor strikes, it should not cause such an impact globally.
largest economies:

italy #8
iran #11
Iran #28

italys economy is less than a tenth of the US. The total obliteration of italy should wipe way below 10% of stocks that sell globally equally.
The actual *real world* impact of the total destruction of italy to a rational; TSLA investor should be maybe 1-2%.

And let not even get into the fact that we are very unlikely to see even 0.1% of Italians die as a result of this virus*

This market is 100% irrational, and there are SERIOUS long term bargains becoming available for anybody able to look through this panic,


*this would be a horrific disaster, but i'm talking pure maths and economics here.