StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
My understanding is that this strategy was attempted before, and they found out that many US oil companies were able to shut down (or go bankrupt or whatever) when the price hit "unprofitable" and then the majors said "victory secured!" and raised prices again, and then poof! a bunch of shale extractors started right back up again the moment it became profitable again. That is, the flexibility of US extractors to shut down when unprofitable and (for perhaps new ones) to start up again when it was profitable defeated the plan.
That's no longer true. The market for shale oil investing has shrunk considerably since the last oil glut. Previously, there was an almost unlimited appetite for shale oil investments. It has dramatically shrunk before the most recent price drop. Most of the small producers were not profitable overall, billions of investor money was lost. Investors have lost their appetite for funding new wells and exploration. Entire drilling areas closed down for lack of investment (before this most recent drop in prices). Companies have been bankrupted (and those who are not have dramatically shrunk investment in new operations). The estimated reserves were over-hyped, wells are drying up faster than projected, overall, just a disaster. It will not bounce back like last time.
Though as much as they hate US supply, it's not clear to me that Saudi Arabia and Russia aren't just attempting to screw each other this time.
Please stop! You are talking about oil billionaires here, businessmen. Their decisions are based on maximizing profits, not who they would like to screw over for the hell of it. They will do what's in their best financial interests. They have chosen short-term price pain to gain a long-term pricing advantage. They have calculated they can extract more money from oil consumers overall if they crash the price of oil in the short-term. This will not last long, just long enough to bankrupt the weak shale oil producers (which describes most of them). Once Russia has experienced the price pain it will be a lot easier for the Saudi's to bring them back to the negotiating table with a willingness to cut production.