Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

They're CNBC's biggest advertisers. I've always thought it would be smart for Tesla to run some ads on CNBC just so they would stop their attacks. It has cost Tesla a lot more in their equity raises than it would have to pay for some ads.

Funny that you think a few pennies from Tesla would in any way counter the decades of funding from all of the entrenched industries which are being disrupted.

 

[lafrisbee]

You make it sound like licensing and/or buying powertrains or batteries from Tesla would prevent them from going bankrupt. I'm not sure it's that clear cut. Licesning or buying powertrains would still not give them competitive products and competitive prices to Tesla. The only way this would work for them is if auto demand remained so strong that people would pay more for inferior solutions rather than wait months or years for a Tesla. Simply bolting a body to a good skateboard does not mean the final result is also good nor does it imply it would be cost-effective or price competitive.

It's difficult to see the future but I think the most likely way this will play out is for the entire auto industry to shrink massively by 2028. Along with that, there will be some consolidation of the major OEM's, likely through the bankruptcy of the weakest ones. One or two of the big names will survive (and they might have acquired marketing rights to some of the failed brands). EV's will be cheaper on average than gas cars (inflation-adjusted) and there will be fewer overall sales (since EV's are more durable). Tesla will have at least 20% market share and their energy and energy storage businesses will be larger and more profitable than their auto division.

Ya made me think...
"Would I buy a Mach-e Mustang or taycan as it is, or would I prefer to buy the same car with a tesla skateboard?"
Not really a question is it?

 

[lafrisbee]

One

They're CNBC's biggest advertisers. I've always thought it would be smart for Tesla to run some ads on CNBC just so they would stop their attacks. It has cost Tesla a lot more in their equity raises than it would have to pay for some ads.

One of Tesla's greatest positions is not funding the dishonest advertising industry.

 

[X Fan]

There is no doubt in my mind that we are entering a Global recession; perhaps not as severe as the "Lehman shock" but it still has the potential to be severe and the Market downturn has not run it's course.

Every recession has unforeseen consequences that always impact industries (will be a buying opportunity) and the banking community.

Not advice but be careful.

 

[Tslynk67]

They're trying their hardest to get $TSLA below NASDAQ, but she ain't having it!

Looks like we're 0.4% away from another DOW circuit-breaker too.

 

[Fobble]

With all the talk of the panic selling, and fears, and Coronavirus, I just want to point out that my buy order set for 600 still hasn't popped. If TSLA keeps playing touch an go with the 640's, it doesn't appear likely to, (un?)fortunately.

Just added 25 shares at 620. Already lost $5/share Will continue to add a few more shares on every 30-50 drop. The new shares are part of my share accumulation plans, not just TSLA, but also other quality stocks. I was fortunate to be on about 90% cash right before the big drop 2-3 weeks ago. I have been doing shopping slowly starting the last week or so.

 

[Rashomon]

The US pandemic is a couple of weeks behind Italy, and by the end of March, the macros are going to be horrific. It's impressive how well TSLA is holding up, but I expect before the overall situation starts improving, TSLA may dip below 600 -- at least I have a buy order in at 588. It's a fight between the macros and the rapidly building good news on TSLA. By the time production and delivery numbers are released in early April, we'll have seen the TSLA bottom, I think, unless the macro situation really deteriorates!

 

[Nocturnal]

Just added 25 shares at 620. Already lost $5/share Will continue to add a few more shares on every 30-50 drop. The new shares are part of my share accumulation plans, not just TSLA, but also other quality stocks. I was fortunate to be on about 90% cash right before the big drop 2-3 weeks ago. I have been doing shopping slowly starting the last week or so.

No, you just saved $10,000.00 - $633.00 on those 25 shares. (minus opportunity cost)

 

[EV forever]

They're CNBC's biggest advertisers. I've always thought it would be smart for Tesla to run some ads on CNBC just so they would stop their attacks. It has cost Tesla a lot more in their equity raises than it would have to pay for some ads.

That would be equivalent to paying off a bully and rewarding their nasty behavior. I sincerely hope Tesla never does advertising for this purpose.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ya made me think...
"Would I buy a Mach-e Mustang or taycan as it is, or would I prefer to buy the same car with a tesla skateboard?"
Not really a question is it?

Not only is in not really a question, it's not the question.

The question is whether it would be price competitive at a price that would allow the big established OEM to become profitable. Because Tesla would have to make positive margins on the skateboard (enough to compensate them for the competition they were enabling).

 

[lklundin]

Ya made me think...
"Would I buy a Mach-e Mustang or taycan as it is, or would I prefer to buy the same car with a tesla skateboard?"
Not really a question is it?

The reason why I think it not really is a question, is that I see absolutely no reason why Tesla would sell their superior drive trains to the competition. First, the value added when Tesla puts their drive train under their own cars is enormous (e.g. software, brand name), secondly, the markup on selling that whole car is much bigger than what they could reasonably extract from a competing car maker buying the drive train in bulk.

As for the production capacity, it seems Tesla has figured out how to build the machine that builds the machine and they are flush with cash, so their ability to scale up their own production seems suitable for putting cars on top of every drive train they can make.

As for the fossil fuel displaced by a given drive train, I believe it is the same whether it is a Tesla or another brand car that runs it. So from the perspective of the goal of sustainable transportation, there is nothing gained by selling anything to the competition. (Actually, with Tesla's cars being more energy efficient, there is energy saved by having a Tesla instead of a differently branded car with a Tesla drive train).

TL;DR: Let's just stop wondering whether Tesla will sell its drive train to the competition.

 

[GOVA]

Still meh.

Tesla has been expecting a recession for 6-8 months now and got ready for it.
We are still 2-3 times the TSLA from a ~year ago.

Will it go down?, some for sure. Will it hit 186? You know the answer. Even if it does, it will rebound even quicker.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

TSLA showing great resilience and looking good to ride any macro upswing to end the week green. Amazing.

 

[jerryfan2000]

TSLA showing great resilience and looking good to ride any macro upswing to end the week green. Amazing.

Maybe some insiders know something big is coming so is secretively accumulating?

 

[thait84]

TSLA showing great resilience and looking good to ride any macro upswing to end the week green. Amazing.

Definitely. TSLA is doing well today, all things considered. I don't think the puts I sold will get exercised. It is too bad, I want more Tesla shares!

 

[vikings123]

TSLA showing great resilience and looking good to ride any macro upswing to end the week green. Amazing.

I expect a short squeeze as we head to the close.

 

[thait84]

I expect a short squeeze as we head to the close.

Maybe on Friday again.

 

[Fobble]

Maybe some insiders know something big is coming so is secretively accumulating?

Not sure why you look at things on the negative note? Can it be also investors have strong confidence in Tesla and buying on the weakness? Should you start flagging to the SEC?

 

[Lessmog]

Not sure why you look at things on the negative note? Can it be also investors have strong confidence in Tesla and buying on the weakness? Should you start flagging to the SEC?

Yes why not? They seem to have little to do.

 

[Artful Dodger]

One just as easily can reference Dahn's (no longer available for viewing?) recent BC lecture where he could not have been more specific in stating the reference standard for "An Excellent Battery"

Dr. Jeff Dahn's lecture at UBC is still available, it was linked here last week.

Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives.mp4 - Simplify your life - Dropbox direct download​

Dahn is a Contract Researcher for Tesla, and doesn't speak for the Company in his presentations. His talks in general show OTHER car companies what they can produce using the research and patents he's published. They are his target audience, not Tesla.

Further, Telsa China posted "Cobalt Free Battery, But NOT LFP" "Coming Soon, Battery Day in April" in a social media post back in Feb, also discussed on TMC.

Post by: Artful Dodger, Feb 23, 2020: TSLA Investor Discussions #142138

Tesla has made it clear they are moving to cobalt-free chemistry for their next product. Whether that includes the LG cells soon to be in use at GF3, we do not know. But it is clear the delivery of LG cells has been held up at GF3 due to their inability to get the battery cells just right (per Elon Musk from his 3rd Row Podcast Q&A, Jan 2020)

Have a good day.